本文選題：省級政府債務 + 面板效應��； 參考：《南京大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：政府債務長期以來一直是熱點問題,政府債務對經(jīng)濟增長的影響也始終是國家和央行在管理債務規(guī)模的首要考慮。在中國,國家債務而非地方債務被給予太多關注。事實上,從2008年金融危機導致的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展減緩以來,中央政府實施的4萬億刺激計劃中只有1萬億是由中央政府提供的,而剩余的資金都必須由地方政府籌措。龐大的資金需求以及隨后的地方發(fā)債合法化使得地方政府通過借債融資有了必要性和合理性。迅速擴張的地方政府債務規(guī)模要求對地方債務對經(jīng)濟增長的影響進行進一步研究。本文應用凱恩斯的有效需求理論、哈羅德-多瑪模型和新古典經(jīng)濟增長理論來分析地方政府債務對經(jīng)濟增長的影響傳導機制。此外,在數(shù)據(jù)處理的過程中發(fā)現(xiàn)存在門檻效應,因此進行了包括門檻回歸等進一步回歸分析。由于中國不同地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平的巨大差異,各省份被分組進行面板回歸以弄清不同地區(qū)不同債務水平對經(jīng)濟增長的不同影響。本文實證分析基于30個省份從2010到2015這六年的數(shù)據(jù)。本文第一章是導論,介紹了研究背景、研究目的以及研究方法。第二章先對過去政府債務的定義以及形成的研究進行回顧,隨后對地方政府債務和經(jīng)濟增長的關系進行了文獻回顧。第三章分析了政府債務對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機制。第四章主要是計量模型的建立以及數(shù)據(jù)來源的介紹。第五章進行了包括相關分析、平穩(wěn)性檢驗、面板回歸分析、門檻面板分析以及按地區(qū)回歸分析等實證研究。最后一張得出結(jié)論,在合理范圍內(nèi)的地方政府債務能推動經(jīng)濟增長,但是推動作用在不同地區(qū)隨著債務水平的不同有所區(qū)別。本文研究的主要結(jié)論有:(1)通過描述性統(tǒng)計分析和相關性分析,30個地區(qū)2010-2015年六年時間地方GDP年度增長率均值為12.869%,地方政府債務率均值為41.13%。通過相關性分析,可知在0.05水平下被解釋變量經(jīng)濟增長率與解釋變量債務率中度正相關,與控制變量城市化率弱度負相關,與控制變量對外貿(mào)易總額中度正相關,與控制變量人口增長率無顯著關系;(2)通過Hausman檢驗結(jié)果可知選擇固定效應進行面板回歸分析,可知0.01的顯著性水平下地方政府債率水平可以促進地方經(jīng)濟的增長。同時,通過設置地方政府債務率為門檻變量進行門檻回歸分析可知,在0.01顯著性水平下當?shù)胤秸畟鶆章实陀?.1745時,債務率水平與地方經(jīng)濟呈正相關,這說明地方政府債務增加不但沒有縮小同等條件下經(jīng)濟增長的差距,反而加劇了差距影響;當?shù)胤秸畟鶆章矢哂?.1745時,債務率水平與地方經(jīng)濟仍然呈正相關但影響系數(shù)縮小了,即債務水平提高對經(jīng)濟增長的正向作用降低了;(3)30地區(qū)整體固定效應回歸分析中地方政府債務率與地方經(jīng)濟增長的回歸系數(shù)為0.0181。通過對東中西三個地區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù)分別進行回歸分析,東部地區(qū)兩者的回歸系數(shù)大于整體系數(shù),說明東部地區(qū)地方政府債務率對經(jīng)濟增長的促進作用要高于全國平均水平;西部地區(qū)兩者的回歸系數(shù)為小于整體系數(shù),說明西部地區(qū)地方政府債務率對經(jīng)濟增長的促進作用要低于全國平均水平。
[Abstract]:Government debt has been a hot issue for a long time. The impact of government debt on economic growth has always been the primary consideration by the state and central bank in managing debt. In China, national debt rather than local debt is given too much attention. In fact, since the economic development of the financial crisis slowed in 2008, the central government has implemented 40 thousand Only 1 trillion of the billion stimulus plans are provided by the central government, and the remaining funds must be raised by local governments. The huge demand for funds and the subsequent legalization of local government debt make it necessary and reasonable for local governments to borrow from debt. The rapid expansion of local government debt demands the economy of local debt to the economy. The effect of growth is further studied. This paper applies Keynes's effective demand theory, Harold - dom model and neoclassical economic growth theory to analyze the transmission mechanism of the influence of local government debt on economic growth. In addition, the threshold effect is found in the process of data processing. Stepwise regression analysis. Due to the huge difference in economic development level in different regions of China, each province is grouped by panel regression to understand the different effects of different debt levels on economic growth in different regions. This paper is based on the data of the six years from 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. The first chapter is the introduction, the research background, and the research background. The second chapter reviews the definition and formation of government debt in the past, and then reviews the relationship between local government debt and economic growth. The third chapter analyzes the influence mechanism of government debt on economic growth. The fourth chapter is the establishment of the measurement model and the data source. The fifth chapter includes the correlation analysis, the stability test, the panel regression analysis, the threshold panel analysis and the regional regression analysis. The final conclusion is that the local government debt in a reasonable range can promote economic growth, but the role is different in different regions as the level of debt is different. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) through descriptive statistical analysis and correlation analysis, the average annual growth rate of local GDP is 12.869% in 2010-2015 years and six years in 30 regions, and the local government debt rate is 41.13%. through correlation analysis. It can be seen that the economic growth rate and the explanatory variable debt rate are moderate at the 0.05 level. Positive correlation, negative correlation with control variable urbanization rate, moderate positive correlation with control variable foreign trade total, and no significant relationship with control variable population growth rate. (2) through the Hausman test results, we know that the fixed effect is selected to carry on the panel regression analysis, we can see that the level of local government debt rate can promote the local level under the explicit level of 0.01. At the same time, by setting the threshold regression analysis of the local government debt rate as a threshold variable, we know that the debt rate is positively related to the local economy when the local government debt rate is below 1.1745 under the 0.01 significant level, which indicates that the increase of local government debt does not narrow the gap of economic growth under the same conditions. However, when the local government debt rate is higher than 1.1745, the debt rate is still positively related to the local economy but the influence coefficient is reduced, that is, the positive effect of the debt level on the economic growth is reduced; (3) the return of local government debt and local economic growth in the 30 region's overall fixed effect regression analysis The coefficient is 0.0181. through the regression analysis of the panel data in three East and west regions. The regression coefficient of the eastern region is greater than the overall coefficient, indicating that the local government debt rate in the eastern region is higher than the national average. The regression coefficient of the western region is less than the overall coefficient, indicating that the west is less than the whole factor. The role of local government debt ratio in economic growth is lower than the national average.

【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5;F124.1
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本文編號：1848214