本文選題：稅收渠道 + 石油價格��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：石油作為一種重要的稀缺資源,其生產(chǎn)與供應(yīng)直接關(guān)系到一國經(jīng)濟乃至世界經(jīng)濟的正常運行和人民生活水平,同時,作為一種重要的戰(zhàn)略物資,石油在國際政治與國防安全領(lǐng)域發(fā)揮著不可替代的作用,因此石油價格就成為了反映國家經(jīng)濟狀況和人民生活水平的指針。石油價格的任何變動都會被各國政府和人民所關(guān)注。居于此,本文選取布倫特石油價格(Brent)代表國際石油價格,結(jié)合我國的國情現(xiàn)狀,深入探尋石油價格波動對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響,而探討稅收渠道下石油價格波動對國民經(jīng)濟的影響則具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 首先,依據(jù)國內(nèi)外石油價格與我國宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù),本文從宏觀層面分析了我國石油價格和國際石油價格的走勢以及我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的走勢。對2001年至今造成石油價格波動的典型化事實進行綜述,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響石油價格波動的因素主要是有供需層面的因素、貨幣與財政層面的因素和政治層面的因素。研究影響石油價格波動的因素對于我國石油發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的制定有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。 其次,通過運用宏觀經(jīng)濟學(xué)中總供給-總需求模型即AD-AS模型,對稅收渠道下石油價格波動對國民經(jīng)濟的影響進行理論分析,得出對石油征稅這一宏觀舉措對國民經(jīng)濟的影響。由于稅收乘數(shù)為負(fù)數(shù),稅收與國民經(jīng)濟呈反方向變動因此在課稅條件下,對石油價格進行調(diào)整會使得整個宏觀經(jīng)濟狀況發(fā)生變動。 再次,對于石油價格波動對經(jīng)濟增長的稅收渠道分析進行實證研究。實證分析主要從以下幾個方面展開：第一,對原始數(shù)據(jù)進行處理,對其進行序列平穩(wěn)性檢驗；第二,構(gòu)建聯(lián)立方程組,對聯(lián)立方程進行三階段最小二乘擬合回歸處理,并根據(jù)聯(lián)立方程的擬合結(jié)果對聯(lián)立方程組進行ARCH效應(yīng)檢驗；第三,利用GARCH(1,1)模型對聯(lián)立方程進行重新估計,并對GARCH模型的ARCH效應(yīng)進行檢驗；第四,進行稅收渠道性的實證分析,以2001年1月至2010年12月的數(shù)據(jù)為樣本建立估計模型,采取動態(tài)預(yù)測法對國內(nèi)石油價格、國民生產(chǎn)總值進行預(yù)測,預(yù)測2011年1月至2013年9月的月度國內(nèi)石油價格和月度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值。將2011年1月至2013年9月的月度國內(nèi)石油價格和月度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)與該時間區(qū)間中實際的月度石油稅率進行最小二乘估計,依據(jù)其估計結(jié)果可斷定石油價格對GDP的影響主要是通過稅率傳導(dǎo)過來的,而稅率的變動直接對產(chǎn)出進行影響。 最后,依據(jù)實證分析,得出結(jié)論,再一次證明石油價格對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的沖擊影響主要是通過石油稅率傳導(dǎo)而來的,而稅率的變動也對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值有直接的影響,這與理論分析的結(jié)論相一致。因此,本文根據(jù)理論和實證分析結(jié)果,從石油行業(yè)稅收政策、石油市場價格機制、石油儲備體系建設(shè)和石油行業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展四個方面提出政策建議,主要包括：建立完善的石油行業(yè)稅收政策；建立完善的石油市場價格機制；加強石油儲備體系建設(shè)和促進石油行業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As an important scarce resource , the production and supply of petroleum are directly related to the normal operation of a country ' s economy and even the world economy and the people ' s standard of living . At the same time , as an important strategic material , oil plays an irreplaceable role in the fields of international politics and national defense security , so the oil price has become a pointer to the country ' s economic situation and the people ' s living standard .

First , according to the domestic and foreign oil prices and our country ' s macro - economic data , this paper analyzes the trend of China ' s oil price and international petroleum price and the trend of China ' s macro - economy from the macro - level .

Secondly , the influence of oil price fluctuation on national economy is analyzed theoretically by using the model of total supply - total demand ( AD - AS ) in the macro - economics , and the influence of the macro - action on the national economy is drawn . As the tax multiplier is negative , the tax and the national economy change in the opposite direction , so the adjustment of the oil price can make the whole macroeconomic situation change under the condition of taxation .

Thirdly , empirical research is carried out on the tax channel analysis of the fluctuation of oil price on the economic growth . The empirical analysis is mainly carried out from the following aspects : First , the raw data is processed , and the sequence stability test is carried out ;
Secondly , constructing the group of simultaneous equations , performing three - stage least - squares fitting regression processing on the simultaneous equations , and carrying out ARCH effect test on the set of simultaneous equations according to the fitting result of the simultaneous equations ;
Thirdly , we re - estimate the simultaneous equations by using the ARCH ( 1,1 ) model , and verify the ARCH effect of the ARCH model .
Fourthly , carry out an empirical analysis of the tax channel , establish an estimation model for the sample from January 2001 to December 2010 , forecast the domestic oil price and gross national product by dynamic forecasting method , and forecast the monthly domestic oil price and the monthly gross domestic product in the period from January 2011 to September 2013 . According to the estimation result , the influence of the oil price on GDP is mainly conducted through the tax rate , and the change of the tax rate directly affects the output .

Finally , according to the empirical analysis , it is concluded that the impact of oil price on gross domestic product ( GDP ) is mainly influenced by the oil tax rate , and the change of tax rate has a direct impact on GDP , which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis . Therefore , according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results , this paper puts forward policy suggestions from four aspects of oil industry tax policy , petroleum market price mechanism , petroleum reserve system construction and petroleum industry sustainable development .
Establish a perfect price mechanism of petroleum market ;
Strengthening the construction of the oil reserve system and promoting the sustainable development of the petroleum industry .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F812.42;F426.22

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