本文選題：不同經(jīng)濟(jì)狀態(tài)　切入點(diǎn)：政府支出乘數(shù)　出處：《財(cái)貿(mào)研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：鑒于我國(guó)財(cái)政支出政策具有非線性效應(yīng)特征,最終在帶交互效應(yīng)的參數(shù)時(shí)變面板結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸模型(TVP-PSVAR)基礎(chǔ)上的實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn):經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱及經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期,較低貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度下政府投資支出政策效果更顯著,其他正常時(shí)期較高貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度下政府投資支出乘數(shù)較大;而整個(gè)樣本區(qū)間內(nèi),較低貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度下政府消費(fèi)支出乘數(shù)更大。整個(gè)樣本區(qū)間內(nèi),較低政府債務(wù)率都將導(dǎo)致較高的政府投資支出乘數(shù)及政府消費(fèi)支出乘數(shù)。經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平低的省份政府投資支出乘數(shù)更大,其他時(shí)期經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平高的省份政府投資支出乘數(shù)更大;除了經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱時(shí)期的其他樣本區(qū)間內(nèi),較高經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的省份基本具有較高的政府消費(fèi)支出乘數(shù)。
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear effect of fiscal expenditure policy in China, the empirical analysis based on the parametric time-varying panel structure vector autoregressive model (TVP-PSVARA) with interactive effects shows that: economic overheating and recession period.The effect of government investment expenditure policy is more significant under lower trade openness, higher trade openness in other normal periods, larger multiplier in government investment expenditure, and greater multiplier in government consumption expenditure under lower trade openness in the whole sample range.Throughout the sample range, lower government debt rates will result in higher government investment spending multipliers and government consumption spending multipliers.During the recession, the multiplier of government investment expenditure in the provinces with low level of economic development was greater than that in the provinces with high level of economic development in other periods; in addition to other sample periods in the period of economic overheating, the multiplier of government investment expenditure in the provinces with a low level of economic development was greater than that in the other periods.Provinces with a higher level of economic development basically have a higher multiplier of government consumption expenditure.
【作者單位】： 西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)財(cái)稅學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目“地方政府視角下經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的理論與經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究”(15YJC790029) 中央高校基本科研業(yè)務(wù)專項(xiàng)資金資助項(xiàng)目“面板數(shù)據(jù)SVAR、SVARMA的計(jì)量分析方法及應(yīng)用”(JBK1507099)
【分類號(hào)】：F812.45

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