發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-07-12 13:15

【摘要】：在湖南省"十二五"規(guī)劃工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)節(jié)能減排的背景下,如何在碳減排目標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)上,實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化,成為湖南省面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn).本文構(gòu)建低碳約束下湖南省主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇指標(biāo)體系,計(jì)算并選取湖南省無(wú)低碳約束和有低碳約束下的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè).進(jìn)一步,本文設(shè)計(jì)無(wú)低碳約束、弱低碳約束和強(qiáng)低碳約束三種情景模擬,分析不同的低碳約束條件對(duì)湖南省主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇的影響.本文結(jié)論如下:1)無(wú)低碳約束條件下,湖南省主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)包括有色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)等碳生產(chǎn)力較低的行業(yè),低碳約束條件下,湖南省主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)包括食品制造業(yè)等碳生產(chǎn)力較高的行業(yè).這表明,考慮低碳約束條件,湖南省主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)由碳生產(chǎn)力較低的行業(yè)向碳生產(chǎn)力較高的行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變.2)情景模擬結(jié)果表明,一些傳統(tǒng)支柱型產(chǎn)業(yè)仍是湖南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化中需重點(diǎn)發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè),且隨著低碳政策的深化和節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)的擴(kuò)大,戰(zhàn)略性產(chǎn)業(yè)如醫(yī)藥制造業(yè)成為主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè),在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化中發(fā)揮中堅(jiān)作用.
[Abstract]:Under the background of energy saving and emission reduction of industrial industry planned in Hunan Province during the 12th five-year Plan, how to optimize the industrial structure on the basis of carbon emission reduction target has become a major challenge for Hunan Province. In this paper, the index system of Hunan leading industry selection under low carbon constraint is constructed, and the leading industry without low carbon constraint and low carbon constraint in Hunan Province is calculated and selected. Furthermore, three scenarios, no low carbon constraint, weak low carbon constraint and strong low carbon constraint, are designed to analyze the influence of different low carbon constraints on the choice of leading industries in Hunan Province. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) under the condition of no low carbon constraint, the leading industries in Hunan Province include the industries with low carbon productivity, such as non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry, and under the condition of low carbon constraints, the leading industries in Hunan Province include the industries with high carbon productivity such as food manufacturing. This shows that considering the low carbon constraints, the leading industries in Hunan Province have changed from the industries with low carbon productivity to the industries with high carbon productivity. 2) the results of situational simulation show that some traditional pillar industries are still industries that need to be developed in the optimization of industrial structure in Hunan Province, and with the deepening of low carbon policy and the expansion of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, strategic industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have become the leading industries. It plays a key role in the optimization of industrial structure.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)與技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;湖南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院;兩型社會(huì)與生態(tài)文明協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(71303076) 博士后科學(xué)基金面上資助項(xiàng)目(2012M510057);博士后科學(xué)基金特別資助項(xiàng)目(2013T60219)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F427;F205

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