【摘要】：能源是經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ),生產(chǎn)和生活的方方面面都離不開(kāi)能源。遼寧是能源消費(fèi)大省,節(jié)能降耗任務(wù)十分艱巨。當(dāng)前國(guó)外學(xué)者針對(duì)能源消費(fèi)、能源強(qiáng)度等多個(gè)角度與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間關(guān)系的研究頗為豐富,國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者針對(duì)各省能源消費(fèi)以及經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平之間存在的關(guān)系也進(jìn)行了大量研究,但目前定量分析遼寧能源消費(fèi)情況的不多,對(duì)未來(lái)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)的文獻(xiàn)更少。 論文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外大量相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述,為本文的撰寫提供理論依據(jù)。其次對(duì)相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行界定,并對(duì)遼寧能源消費(fèi)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,指出當(dāng)前遼寧能源消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域存在的諸多問(wèn)題,因此實(shí)施能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略十分必要。再次綜合考慮人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和汽車擁有量等諸多因素,兼顧考慮數(shù)據(jù)的可獲得性,進(jìn)行回歸分析,得出遼寧能源消費(fèi)影響因素的定量分析結(jié)果。回歸過(guò)程采取偏最小二乘方法,該方法在自變量存在嚴(yán)重多重共線性和樣本個(gè)數(shù)小于變量個(gè)數(shù)的條件下仍然適用,因此可更好的保證計(jì)算結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性和可靠性。利用時(shí)間序列ARIMA和灰色預(yù)測(cè)組合預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)“十二五”期間遼寧能源消費(fèi)總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),發(fā)現(xiàn)未來(lái)幾年遼寧省能源消費(fèi)仍以較高的速度增長(zhǎng),并保持在很高的消費(fèi)水平。ARIMA模型是預(yù)測(cè)精度較高的短期預(yù)測(cè)模型,灰色模型通過(guò)尋找等待預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的變化規(guī)律,對(duì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部數(shù)據(jù)的未來(lái)變化進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)隨時(shí)間變化遞增或遞減的序列預(yù)測(cè)效果較好。最后采用SWOT分析,對(duì)遼寧能源環(huán)境進(jìn)行分析,制定出盡可能發(fā)揮優(yōu)勢(shì)、把握機(jī)遇、縮小劣勢(shì)和規(guī)避威脅的戰(zhàn)略。SWOT分析方法綜合考慮內(nèi)外部環(huán)境,考慮問(wèn)題比較全面,能夠客觀而準(zhǔn)確的分析問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material basis for economic and social development. Liaoning is a big energy consumption province, energy conservation and consumption reduction task is very arduous. At present, foreign scholars have done a lot of research on the relationship between energy consumption, energy intensity and economic development. Domestic scholars have also done a lot of research on the relationship between energy consumption and the level of economic development in various provinces. However, there is not much quantitative analysis of Liaoning energy consumption, and there are fewer literatures to predict the future. Firstly, the paper summarizes a large number of related literature at home and abroad to provide theoretical basis for the writing of this paper. Secondly, it defines the related concepts, analyzes the current situation of Liaoning energy consumption, and points out many problems in Liaoning energy consumption field, so it is necessary to implement the energy development strategy. Considering the factors such as population, economic development, energy structure, industrial structure and car ownership, and taking into account the availability of data, the quantitative analysis results of the factors affecting energy consumption in Liaoning are obtained. The partial least square method is adopted in the regression process. This method is still applicable under the condition that the independent variables have serious multiple collinearity and the number of samples is smaller than the number of variables, so the accuracy and reliability of the calculation results can be better guaranteed. The total energy consumption in Liaoning Province during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is predicted by using time series ARIMA and grey forecast combined forecasting model, and it is found that the energy consumption in Liaoning Province will still increase at a relatively high speed in the next few years. ARIMA model is a short-term prediction model with high prediction accuracy. Grey model predicts the future change of system data by looking for the change law of waiting prediction system. It is better to predict the series with increasing or decreasing with time. Finally, the SWOT analysis is used to analyze the energy environment in Liaoning Province, and a strategy is worked out to give full play to the advantages, seize the opportunities, reduce the disadvantages and avoid the threat. The SWOT analysis method considers the internal and external environment comprehensively, and considers the problems more comprehensively. Able to analyze problems objectively and accurately.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.2

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