【摘要】：制造業(yè)作為我國工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的傳統(tǒng)行業(yè),不僅對我國經(jīng)濟增長有重要貢獻,也關(guān)乎國家安定,而且在解決就業(yè)問題上發(fā)揮著不可替代的作用,但是由于發(fā)展不均衡、技術(shù)含量不高、管理理念陳舊、對風險認識不夠等原因,我國制造業(yè)企業(yè)水平參差不齊,與國外的發(fā)達國家相比還是存在較大差距,在當前競爭日益激烈的國際市場環(huán)境下容易被淘汰,存在較大的財務(wù)風險。而且一些上市的制造業(yè)企業(yè),是我國的一些老的國有企業(yè),這些企業(yè)一般管理理念方面較為陳舊,對風險認識不夠,面對風險的抵抗力也就較弱,因此對制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險評價就顯得尤為重要。國內(nèi)外在財務(wù)風險的認定、風險評價方法和模型構(gòu)建上都有一定的研究成果,但是現(xiàn)有研究中指標體系的選取大都采取定性的方法且沒有考慮到市場風險。 文章首先闡述了企業(yè)財務(wù)風險的概念及其相關(guān)理論知識,重點分析了制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險的特點、產(chǎn)生原因及財務(wù)風險評價主要方法,為企業(yè)財務(wù)風險評價奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。隨后給出了影響制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險的主要因素及評價指標的選取原則與方法,并采用定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法對評價指標進行了篩選,構(gòu)建了制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險評價指標體系和評價模型,并以50家制造業(yè)上市公司為財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)樣本,分別對未融入VAR與融入VAR的指標體系進行了因子分析,并用回歸分析法對兩組因子分析的有效性進行比較,結(jié)果表明,融入風險價值VAR的指標體系能更好的評價制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險。最后,以所構(gòu)建的財務(wù)風險評價模型為基礎(chǔ),對部分制造業(yè)上市公司進行了財務(wù)風險評價的具體應用,給出了相應財務(wù)風險大小,對企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營決策提供了一定的指導作用。 研究表明,通過聚類分析構(gòu)建的制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險評價指標體系更為有效,且將VAR引用財務(wù)風險評價指標體系具有必要性和有效性。融入VAR的制造業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)風險評價模型的實施與應用,將為投資者、經(jīng)營者和管理者評估企業(yè)財務(wù)風險提供科學的依據(jù),具有重要的實際意義。
[Abstract]:As a traditional industry in China's industrial field, manufacturing industry not only has an important contribution to China's economic growth, but also relates to the stability of the country, and plays an irreplaceable role in solving the problem of employment. However, due to the uneven development, the manufacturing industry plays an irreplaceable role in solving the problem of employment. The technical content is not high, the management idea is old, the risk awareness is not enough, the level of our manufacturing enterprises is uneven, compared with the developed countries abroad, there is still a big gap. In the current competitive international market environment is easy to be eliminated, there is a greater financial risk. Moreover, some of the manufacturing enterprises listed on the market are some old state-owned enterprises in our country. These enterprises are relatively old in general management concepts, do not have enough understanding of risks, and are less resistant to risks. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate the financial risk of listed manufacturing companies. At home and abroad, there are some research results in the identification of financial risk, risk assessment method and model construction, but in the existing research, the selection of index system mostly adopts qualitative method and does not take market risk into account. Firstly, this paper expounds the concept of enterprise financial risk and its related theoretical knowledge, and analyzes the characteristics, causes and main methods of financial risk evaluation of listed companies in manufacturing industry. It lays a theoretical foundation for enterprise financial risk evaluation. Then the main factors affecting the financial risk of listed companies in manufacturing industry and the selection principles and methods of evaluation indexes are given, and the evaluation indexes are screened by the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The financial risk evaluation index system and evaluation model of manufacturing listed companies are constructed. Taking 50 listed manufacturing companies as financial data samples, the factor analysis is carried out on the index system of unincorporated VAR and VAR, respectively. The effectiveness of the two groups of factor analysis is compared with regression analysis. The results show that the index system of VAR can better evaluate the financial risk of listed manufacturing companies. Finally, on the basis of the financial risk evaluation model, the paper gives the specific application of financial risk evaluation to some listed companies in manufacturing industry, and gives the corresponding financial risk. To the enterprise's production and management decision to provide a certain guiding role. The research shows that the index system of financial risk evaluation of listed manufacturing companies is more effective, and it is necessary and effective to apply VAR to the index system of financial risk evaluation. The implementation and application of the financial risk evaluation model of listed manufacturing companies incorporated into VAR will provide a scientific basis for investors, managers and managers to evaluate the financial risks of enterprises, which is of great practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：武漢理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F426.4

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