【摘要】：石油作為全球工業(yè)經(jīng)濟中的重要能源和原材料,在世界能源結(jié)構(gòu)中占據(jù)重要位置,其價格的波動對全球經(jīng)濟有著舉足輕重的影響。國內(nèi)原油價格隨國際原油價格上行波動而波動,國際原油價格對中國國民經(jīng)濟、價格水平產(chǎn)生了重大影響。因此研究國際原油價格波動對中國價格指數(shù)是否有影響及影響的深遠程度對于促進我國市場經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展、政府宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的實施以及減小價格水平不斷浮動對我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的阻礙作用具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文在對大量文獻綜述梳理分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進行統(tǒng)計分析并由此探究國際原油價格與我國價格指數(shù)兩者之間的互動關(guān)系,從而提出文章的研究重點：國際原油價格對我國價格水平產(chǎn)生影響的傳導(dǎo)機制是什么,以及所造成的影響究竟有多大；然后利用相關(guān)理論尋求將原油價格與我國價格指數(shù)之間相互作用的傳導(dǎo)途徑；最后,通過建立向量自回歸VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)分析和方差分解,分析國際原油價格與我國價格指數(shù)之間的長期均衡和短期波動關(guān)系。根據(jù)上述分析和論證,并結(jié)合我國市場的實際發(fā)展情況,對于國際原油價格產(chǎn)生的沖擊提出具有實際意義的政策建議。首先,國家應(yīng)擴大石油供應(yīng)渠道,勘探開采新的石油資源；其次,加大建設(shè)戰(zhàn)略石油儲備力度,運行國家戰(zhàn)略儲備體系；第三,節(jié)約能源消費,加快推進開采新型能源；第四,完善市場化原油價格定價機制,建立合理有效的石油進口價格管理機制；第五,有針對性采取財政政策、貨幣政策等措施；第六,減少政府對石油市場價格的干預(yù),提高市場競爭程度等。
[Abstract]:Oil, as an important energy and raw material in the global industrial economy, occupies an important position in the world energy structure. The fluctuation of its price plays an important role in the global economy. The domestic crude oil price fluctuates with the international crude oil price, and the international crude oil price has a great influence on the national economy and the price level of China. Therefore, to study whether the international crude oil price fluctuation has an impact on China's price index and whether it has a far-reaching impact on promoting the rapid development of China's market economy, The implementation of the government's macroeconomic policy and the reduction of the fluctuating price level are of great practical significance to the hindrance of our country's economic development. On the basis of a lot of literature review and analysis, this paper makes a statistical analysis on the relevant data and explores the interaction between international crude oil price and China's price index. The main points of this paper are as follows: what is the conduction mechanism of the influence of international crude oil price on the price level of our country, and how great is the influence caused by it; Finally, by establishing vector autoregressive VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, This paper analyzes the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between international crude oil price and Chinese price index. According to the above analysis and demonstration, combined with the actual development of China's market, the paper puts forward some practical policy suggestions for the impact of the international crude oil price. First, the state should expand oil supply channels to explore and exploit new oil resources; secondly, it should increase the construction of strategic oil reserves and run the national strategic reserve system; third, it should economize on energy consumption and speed up the development of new types of energy; fourth, To improve the pricing mechanism of market-oriented crude oil prices and to establish a reasonable and effective oil import price management mechanism; fifthly, to adopt fiscal and monetary policies and other measures; sixthly, to reduce government intervention in oil market prices. Raise the level of market competition, etc.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F726;F714.1;F764.1

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