【摘要】：航天電子產(chǎn)品制造項(xiàng)目屬于航天項(xiàng)目全壽命周期中的一部分,主要依據(jù)設(shè)計(jì)方案,利用工藝手段進(jìn)行產(chǎn)品實(shí)現(xiàn)的過(guò)程,具有投入資金多,技術(shù)面廣,生產(chǎn)周期長(zhǎng),可靠性要求高等特點(diǎn)。項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素眾多,一個(gè)因素考慮不周便會(huì)導(dǎo)致項(xiàng)目的生產(chǎn)進(jìn)度、成本、性能指標(biāo)受到影響,甚至導(dǎo)致整個(gè)項(xiàng)目失敗,造成巨大損失,因此在航天項(xiàng)目的生產(chǎn)制造領(lǐng)域加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)工作,提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平勢(shì)在必行。 本文借助航天電子產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)制造的實(shí)例,探討基于失效模式與影響分析(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, FMEA)的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法以及模糊層次分析法(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Fuzzy AHP)在應(yīng)用。目前完成的主要工作如下： (1)航天電子產(chǎn)品制造風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 明確航天電子產(chǎn)品制造的基本概念,深入分析制造過(guò)程存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)名稱、類型；以及探討航天型號(hào)技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所用到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)。 (2)基于FMEA的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù) 深入探討FMEA結(jié)合FTA、專家調(diào)查法的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法,提出FTA對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別,確定FMEA的失效模式以及失效原因(機(jī)理),借助專家調(diào)查法對(duì)識(shí)別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,即對(duì)FMEA過(guò)程中的嚴(yán)重度、發(fā)生度、檢測(cè)度進(jìn)行定性分析,從而獲取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度； 針對(duì)多層級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,基于FMEA分析中的嚴(yán)重度、發(fā)生度、檢測(cè)度三項(xiàng)評(píng)估因素,利用Fuzzy AHP對(duì)專家調(diào)查結(jié)果進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià),從而獲取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序。 (3)案例分析 在上述探討的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)上,針對(duì)兩種不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管控類型,進(jìn)行實(shí)例驗(yàn)證。 運(yùn)用上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù),可提高航天電子產(chǎn)品制造領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)手段的科學(xué)性,為決策人員提供更準(zhǔn)確的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素信息,為制定并執(zhí)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃提供更為合理的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The aerospace electronic product manufacturing project is a part of the whole life cycle of the space project. It is mainly based on the design scheme and the process of product realization by means of technology. It has many investment, wide technical scope and long production cycle. High reliability requirements and other characteristics. There are many risk factors in the project. If one factor is not considered properly, the production schedule, cost and performance index of the project will be affected, and even the whole project will fail, resulting in huge losses. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen the risk evaluation and improve the risk management level in the field of production and manufacturing of aerospace projects. This paper discusses the comprehensive risk assessment method based on failure mode and impact analysis (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, FMEA) and the application of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Fuzzy AHP) in aerospace electronics manufacturing. The main work accomplished at present is as follows: (1) risk analysis of aerospace electronic product manufacturing clarifies the basic concept of aerospace electronic product manufacturing, deeply analyzes the name and type of risk existing in manufacturing process; This paper also discusses the risk assessment technology used in aerospace technology. (2) the risk assessment technology based on FMEA is deeply discussed in FMEA combined with the FTA, expert investigation method, and the identification of the risk by FTA is put forward. The failure mode and failure reason (mechanism) of FMEA are determined, and the identified risk is evaluated by expert investigation method, that is, the severity, occurrence degree and detection degree of FMEA process are qualitatively analyzed, and the risk degree is obtained. Aiming at multi-level risk factors, based on the three evaluation factors of severity, occurrence and detection in FMEA analysis, Fuzzy AHP is used to evaluate the risk of the results of expert investigation. In order to obtain risk ranking. (3) case study on the basis of the risk assessment technology discussed above, for two different types of risk management and control, a case study. The application of the above risk assessment technology can improve the scientific nature of the technical means of risk assessment in the field of aerospace electronics manufacturing, provide more accurate information of risk factors for decision makers, and provide more reasonable basis for making and implementing risk plans.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)(工程管理與信息技術(shù)學(xué)院)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F407.6

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