【摘要】：全面分析和管理國際石油合同中的各種風(fēng)險，對于中國的石油公司從事海外石油資源的勘探開發(fā)、有效規(guī)避各類風(fēng)險具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先分析了國際石油合同風(fēng)險管理的現(xiàn)狀及存在的問題，指出了國際石油合同風(fēng)險管理的必要性。在具體的工作實踐中，國際石油合同風(fēng)險類型多種多樣，風(fēng)險的大小和重要程度各不相同。本文通過對國際石油合同的條款分解，利用頭腦風(fēng)暴法結(jié)合KJ（親和圖）法，對國際石油合同風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了識別，，確定了其影響因素，從而建立了國際石油合同的風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。 國際石油合同風(fēng)險的綜合評價是一個非常復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)評價問題，是國際石油項目管理的一個重要環(huán)節(jié)。本文將模糊評判法和人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)相結(jié)合，提出構(gòu)建模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對國際石油合同風(fēng)險進(jìn)行定量評價的方法，在國內(nèi)外還沒有學(xué)者這樣嘗試，具有一定的先進(jìn)性和創(chuàng)新性。利用模糊綜合評判定量化模糊風(fēng)險因素，利用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)弱化了確定各因素權(quán)重時的人為因素，提高了評判結(jié)果的可靠性和準(zhǔn)確性，同時避免了大量的繁瑣計算，使評價工作有效并簡單易行。以中亞地區(qū)國際石油合同的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)作為實例，本文對所建立的模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行了驗證，結(jié)果表明該模型預(yù)測誤差小，是一種可靠、有效的國際石油合同風(fēng)險評價模型。最后本文提出了中國石油公司規(guī)避國際石油合同風(fēng)險的措施，為海外勘探開發(fā)合同的訂立提供了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Comprehensive analysis and management of various risks in international petroleum contracts are of great practical significance for Chinese oil companies to engage in the exploration and development of overseas oil resources and to effectively avoid all kinds of risks. This paper first analyzes the present situation and existing problems of risk management in international petroleum contracts, and points out the necessity of risk management in international petroleum contracts. In the concrete work practice, the international petroleum contract risk type is various, the risk size and the important degree are different. In this paper, by decomposing the terms of international petroleum contract, using brainstorming method and KJ (affinity graph) method, the risk of international petroleum contract is identified, and the influencing factors are determined. Thus, the risk evaluation index system of international petroleum contract is established. The comprehensive evaluation of international petroleum contract risk is a very complicated systematic evaluation problem and an important part of international petroleum project management. This paper combines the fuzzy evaluation method with the artificial neural network, and puts forward the method of quantitative evaluation of the risk of international petroleum contract based on the fuzzy neural network model, which has not been tried by scholars at home and abroad, and it is advanced and innovative to a certain extent. The quantitative fuzzy risk factors of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and artificial factors in determining the weight of each factor are weakened by using neural network, the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results are improved, and a large number of tedious calculations are avoided at the same time. Make the evaluation work effective and easy to carry out. Taking the relevant data of international petroleum contract in Central Asia as an example, the fuzzy neural network is verified in this paper. The results show that the model has small prediction error and is a reliable and effective risk assessment model for international petroleum contract. Finally, the paper puts forward some measures to avoid the risk of international oil contract, and provides some suggestions for the conclusion of overseas exploration and development contract.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F416.22;TP183

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 桂萍;胡慶為;陳曉芳;;經(jīng)濟(jì)合同風(fēng)險管理探討[J];財會通訊;2011年20期

2 楊艷梅;;石油企業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險評價神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的建立[J];重慶科技學(xué)院學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2011年02期

3 李澤紅;王志剛;劉穎;;模糊綜合評價和改進(jìn)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)相結(jié)合的電力建設(shè)項目合同風(fēng)險評價[J];科技和產(chǎn)業(yè);2009年03期

4 馬宏偉;;伊朗回購合同關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟(jì)商務(wù)條款分析[J];國際石油經(jīng)濟(jì);2007年07期

5 王玉梅;王東;;模糊BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型下財務(wù)風(fēng)險管理探究[J];財會通訊;2011年02期

6 漆多俊;沈明宇;;國際石油合作模式演變及合作領(lǐng)域擴(kuò)張[J];河北法學(xué);2007年12期

7 陳連棟;呂春梅;;基于模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電力系統(tǒng)信息安全風(fēng)險評估[J];河北電力技術(shù);2011年01期

8 董軍;蔣雪;;輸電項目工程合同風(fēng)險綜合評價研究[J];華東電力;2010年02期

9 王燕;;國際石油勘探開發(fā)合同中關(guān)鍵財稅條款探析[J];石油化工管理干部學(xué)院學(xué)報;2010年02期

10 趙冬梅;劉海峰;張軍鵬;;基于模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的信息安全風(fēng)險評估模型[J];計算機(jī)工程與應(yīng)用;2009年17期

本文編號：2289470