【摘要】：全面分析和管理國際石油合同中的各種風險，對于中國的石油公司從事海外石油資源的勘探開發(fā)、有效規(guī)避各類風險具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文首先分析了國際石油合同風險管理的現(xiàn)狀及存在的問題，指出了國際石油合同風險管理的必要性。在具體的工作實踐中，國際石油合同風險類型多種多樣，風險的大小和重要程度各不相同。本文通過對國際石油合同的條款分解，利用頭腦風暴法結(jié)合KJ（親和圖）法，對國際石油合同風險進行了識別，，確定了其影響因素，從而建立了國際石油合同的風險評價指標體系。 國際石油合同風險的綜合評價是一個非常復雜的系統(tǒng)評價問題，是國際石油項目管理的一個重要環(huán)節(jié)。本文將模糊評判法和人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)相結(jié)合，提出構(gòu)建模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對國際石油合同風險進行定量評價的方法，在國內(nèi)外還沒有學者這樣嘗試，具有一定的先進性和創(chuàng)新性。利用模糊綜合評判定量化模糊風險因素，利用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)弱化了確定各因素權(quán)重時的人為因素，提高了評判結(jié)果的可靠性和準確性，同時避免了大量的繁瑣計算，使評價工作有效并簡單易行。以中亞地區(qū)國際石油合同的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)作為實例，本文對所建立的模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)進行了驗證，結(jié)果表明該模型預測誤差小，是一種可靠、有效的國際石油合同風險評價模型。最后本文提出了中國石油公司規(guī)避國際石油合同風險的措施，為海外勘探開發(fā)合同的訂立提供了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Comprehensive analysis and management of various risks in international petroleum contracts are of great practical significance for Chinese oil companies to engage in the exploration and development of overseas oil resources and to effectively avoid all kinds of risks. This paper first analyzes the present situation and existing problems of risk management in international petroleum contracts, and points out the necessity of risk management in international petroleum contracts. In the concrete work practice, the international petroleum contract risk type is various, the risk size and the important degree are different. In this paper, by decomposing the terms of international petroleum contract, using brainstorming method and KJ (affinity graph) method, the risk of international petroleum contract is identified, and the influencing factors are determined. Thus, the risk evaluation index system of international petroleum contract is established. The comprehensive evaluation of international petroleum contract risk is a very complicated systematic evaluation problem and an important part of international petroleum project management. This paper combines the fuzzy evaluation method with the artificial neural network, and puts forward the method of quantitative evaluation of the risk of international petroleum contract based on the fuzzy neural network model, which has not been tried by scholars at home and abroad, and it is advanced and innovative to a certain extent. The quantitative fuzzy risk factors of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and artificial factors in determining the weight of each factor are weakened by using neural network, the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results are improved, and a large number of tedious calculations are avoided at the same time. Make the evaluation work effective and easy to carry out. Taking the relevant data of international petroleum contract in Central Asia as an example, the fuzzy neural network is verified in this paper. The results show that the model has small prediction error and is a reliable and effective risk assessment model for international petroleum contract. Finally, the paper puts forward some measures to avoid the risk of international oil contract, and provides some suggestions for the conclusion of overseas exploration and development contract.
【學位授予單位】：中國石油大學（華東）
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F416.22;TP183

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