【摘要】：石油產(chǎn)業(yè)作為支撐國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)，一直受到人們的密切關(guān)注。石油勘探作為石油開(kāi)采的前序過(guò)程，對(duì)石油開(kāi)采起著至關(guān)重要的作用，一個(gè)國(guó)家如果能夠盡量降低石油進(jìn)口的依賴(lài)程度，則能夠提高國(guó)家在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。因此，石油勘探過(guò)程就顯得尤為重要。只有石油勘探成功，才能進(jìn)行后續(xù)的石油產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)，前期勘探過(guò)程一旦失敗，則后續(xù)的石油開(kāi)采則不能夠順利進(jìn)行。長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)，對(duì)于石油勘探的項(xiàng)目評(píng)價(jià)通常采用傳統(tǒng)的凈現(xiàn)金流量方法進(jìn)行，通過(guò)每期固定的凈現(xiàn)金流量，依照一定的折現(xiàn)率，對(duì)各期凈現(xiàn)金流量進(jìn)行折現(xiàn)，用以評(píng)定項(xiàng)目是否可以進(jìn)行。而石油勘探項(xiàng)目的投資規(guī)模大、投資期限長(zhǎng)，投資具有一定的可延遲性等特點(diǎn)，在這種情況下，凈現(xiàn)金流量方法的評(píng)價(jià)方法則不夠全面，不能計(jì)算出項(xiàng)目所含有的隱含價(jià)值。有大量實(shí)例可以證明，傳統(tǒng)的凈現(xiàn)金流量方法評(píng)價(jià)的不可接受項(xiàng)目，往往隱藏著一些潛在收益。因此，在這種情況下，引用實(shí)物期權(quán)方法對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行評(píng)定。實(shí)物期權(quán)方法能夠結(jié)合期權(quán)的延遲性、可選擇性等特點(diǎn)，計(jì)算項(xiàng)目的隱含收益，作為凈現(xiàn)金流量方法的改善，為決策者提供更多的決策幫助，并且更加客觀的評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目收益。 文章采用了理論研究和實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合的研究方法。在理論研究部分，闡述實(shí)物期權(quán)評(píng)價(jià)方法的相關(guān)理論知識(shí)，并對(duì)比各種評(píng)價(jià)方法的優(yōu)勢(shì)和劣勢(shì)，說(shuō)明B—S模型對(duì)石油勘探項(xiàng)目的適用性。在此基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)B—S模型進(jìn)行修正，，以達(dá)到更加適用于石油勘探項(xiàng)目的目的。最后將傳統(tǒng)的凈現(xiàn)金流量方法、B—S模型以及修正后的B—S模型應(yīng)用于具體的石油勘探項(xiàng)目，結(jié)果顯示，在傳統(tǒng)的凈現(xiàn)金流量方法計(jì)算下，項(xiàng)目呈現(xiàn)不可接受的情況，而采用B—S模型進(jìn)行計(jì)算后，項(xiàng)目的收益額為正，證明其包含了凈現(xiàn)金流量方法不能夠計(jì)算的隱含收益，能夠更加客觀全面的評(píng)價(jià)石油勘探項(xiàng)目收益。通過(guò)文章的研究，希望能夠?yàn)闆Q策者提供一定的借鑒，并為后續(xù)研究提供一定的理論支持。
[Abstract]:As an important industry supporting the development of national economy, petroleum industry has been paid close attention by people all the time. As a process of oil exploration, petroleum exploration plays an important role in oil exploitation. If a country can reduce its dependence on oil import as far as possible, it can improve the competitiveness of a country in the international market. Therefore, the oil exploration process is particularly important. Only if the petroleum exploration is successful, the subsequent production of petroleum products can be carried out. If the Prophase exploration process fails, the subsequent oil production will not be able to proceed smoothly. For a long time, the traditional net cash flow method is usually used to evaluate the oil exploration projects. Through the fixed net cash flow per period, according to a certain discount rate, the net cash flow in each period is discounted. Used to assess whether the project can be carried out. However, the investment scale of petroleum exploration project is large, the investment period is long, and the investment has some characteristics such as delay, etc. In this case, the evaluation method of net cash flow method is not comprehensive enough to calculate the implied value of the project. There are a lot of examples to prove that the traditional net cash flow method can not accept the evaluation of projects, often hidden some potential benefits. Therefore, in this case, the real option method is used to evaluate the project. The real option method can be combined with the delay and selectivity of the option to calculate the implied income of the project, as the improvement of the net cash flow method, to provide more decision assistance for the decision makers, and to evaluate the project income more objectively. This paper adopts the research method of combining theoretical research with empirical research. In the part of theoretical research, the relative theoretical knowledge of real option evaluation method is expounded, and the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods are compared to illustrate the applicability of B-S model to petroleum exploration projects. On this basis, the B-S model is modified to be more suitable for petroleum exploration projects. Finally, the traditional net cash flow method, the B-S model and the modified B-S model are applied to the specific oil exploration projects. The results show that under the traditional net cash flow method, the project presents an unacceptable situation. By using B-S model, the income of the project is positive, which proves that it contains the implicit income which can not be calculated by the net cash flow method, and it can evaluate the income of oil exploration project more objectively and comprehensively. Through the research, we hope to provide some reference for decision makers and theoretical support for further research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北石油大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275;F426.1

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