電網(wǎng)企業(yè)基建項目進度風險管理理論研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-17 10:50
【摘要】：進度、質量、成本是項目管理的三個基本要素,三要素之間存在著相輔相成同時又相互制約的關系,其中對于進度計劃的控制直接影響項目參與方對于質量和成本的控制。因此研究項目進度風險的管理對于風險主體識別關鍵風險因素,制定系統(tǒng)的風險應對策略,有效規(guī)避風險損失具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的基建項目具有投資額巨大、建設工期長、參與方眾多、施工過程復雜等特點。在研究電網(wǎng)企業(yè)基建項目進度風險管理問題時所需要考慮的風險因素是數(shù)量龐大、種類繁多且復雜多變的。本文針對電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的基建項目進度風險管理問題,在大量閱讀項目進度風險管理相關理論的基礎上,首先對國內外學者在項目進度管理和風險管理領域的研究現(xiàn)狀進行了探討,而后對進度管理的基本定義、進度計劃的制定和控制流程和風險管理的流程等理論進行了闡述,在此基礎上著重分析了電網(wǎng)企業(yè)基建項目的基本特點和主要進度風險因素,提出一種以任務為階段變量的串行進度生成機制為基礎的基于遺傳算法的串行進度風險管理模型,并研究了模型的算法實現(xiàn)過程。然后通過一個包含12項任務的單項目多模式資源受限項目調度案例驗證了模型的可行性和實用性,并從項目總工期、資源消耗均值、資源消耗均方差和資源供求關系等角度對案例結果進行了分析比較,最終獲得進度風險應對能力較強的方案。
[Abstract]:Schedule, quality and cost are the three basic elements of project management. The three elements are complementary and mutually restricted. The control of schedule directly affects the quality and cost control of the project participants. Therefore, the study of project schedule risk management is of great practical significance for the risk subject to identify key risk factors, formulate systematic risk response strategies, and effectively avoid risk losses. The capital construction projects of power grid enterprises are characterized by huge investment, long construction period, numerous participants and complex construction process. The risk factors that need to be considered when studying the risk management of power grid enterprise infrastructure project schedule are a large number of various and complex risk factors. On the basis of reading the theory of project schedule risk management, this paper discusses the current research situation of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of project schedule management and risk management. Then, the basic definition of schedule management, the formulation of schedule plan and the process of control and risk management are expounded. On this basis, the basic characteristics and main schedule risk factors of power grid enterprise capital construction project are analyzed emphatically. A serial schedule risk management model based on genetic algorithm (GA) based on serial schedule generation mechanism with task as phase variables is proposed and the algorithm implementation process of the model is studied. Then the feasibility and practicability of the model are verified by a single-project multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling case with 12 tasks. The results of the case are analyzed and compared from the point of view of the variance of resource consumption and the relationship between supply and demand of resources.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F272.3;F426.61
本文編號：2276420
[Abstract]:Schedule, quality and cost are the three basic elements of project management. The three elements are complementary and mutually restricted. The control of schedule directly affects the quality and cost control of the project participants. Therefore, the study of project schedule risk management is of great practical significance for the risk subject to identify key risk factors, formulate systematic risk response strategies, and effectively avoid risk losses. The capital construction projects of power grid enterprises are characterized by huge investment, long construction period, numerous participants and complex construction process. The risk factors that need to be considered when studying the risk management of power grid enterprise infrastructure project schedule are a large number of various and complex risk factors. On the basis of reading the theory of project schedule risk management, this paper discusses the current research situation of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of project schedule management and risk management. Then, the basic definition of schedule management, the formulation of schedule plan and the process of control and risk management are expounded. On this basis, the basic characteristics and main schedule risk factors of power grid enterprise capital construction project are analyzed emphatically. A serial schedule risk management model based on genetic algorithm (GA) based on serial schedule generation mechanism with task as phase variables is proposed and the algorithm implementation process of the model is studied. Then the feasibility and practicability of the model are verified by a single-project multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling case with 12 tasks. The results of the case are analyzed and compared from the point of view of the variance of resource consumption and the relationship between supply and demand of resources.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F272.3;F426.61
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