【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，電力市場(chǎng)發(fā)生了較大的變化，電力峰谷差逐年拉大，電力供需矛盾突出，這增加了電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)及需求側(cè)管理的難度，同時(shí)也威脅到電網(wǎng)的安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。因此，做好電網(wǎng)中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)，是安排電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃，做好電力需求側(cè)管理的前提，而做好電力需求側(cè)管理是保證電網(wǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)安全運(yùn)行的重要手段。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)南陽(yáng)市負(fù)荷成分及其比例進(jìn)行分析，重點(diǎn)對(duì)南陽(yáng)市典型用電負(fù)荷情況和歷史數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，在此基礎(chǔ)上，利用經(jīng)典負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)法和灰色預(yù)測(cè)法對(duì)南陽(yáng)電網(wǎng)中長(zhǎng)期的負(fù)荷進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并采用加權(quán)平均法給出最終預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果，針對(duì)對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果及其精度進(jìn)行縱向和橫向校驗(yàn)，其精度滿足負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)要求，最終給出最適合南陽(yáng)地區(qū)的中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)值。然后在對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果分析的基礎(chǔ)上，發(fā)現(xiàn)南陽(yáng)電網(wǎng)負(fù)荷缺口呈逐漸拉大趨勢(shì)，而電源項(xiàng)目建設(shè)滯后，，造成該區(qū)域長(zhǎng)期存在硬缺電現(xiàn)象，給電網(wǎng)安全穩(wěn)定造成了影響，從而提出深挖需求側(cè)管理潛力是應(yīng)對(duì)電力短缺的最有效手段。本文認(rèn)真分析了本地需求側(cè)管理現(xiàn)狀、存在的問題和制約需求側(cè)管理發(fā)展的因素，從管理、技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)方面提出適應(yīng)于本地區(qū)特點(diǎn)的相關(guān)需求側(cè)管理意見，從而有效移峰填谷，提高區(qū)域負(fù)荷率，減小負(fù)荷缺口，以期緩解供電壓力，保證電網(wǎng)安全運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, great changes have taken place in the electricity market, the power peak and valley difference has been enlarged year by year, and the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity is prominent, which increases the difficulty of power load forecasting and demand-side management. At the same time, it also threatens the safe and stable operation of power grid. Therefore, the long-term load forecasting is the premise of power grid planning and demand-side management, while the DSM is an important means to ensure the safe operation of power grid economy. Based on the analysis of load composition and its proportion in Nanyang City, this paper focuses on the statistical analysis of typical load and historical data of Nanyang City, on the basis of which, This paper makes use of the classical load forecasting method and grey forecasting method to forecast the medium and long term load of Nanyang power network, and gives the final forecast result by using the weighted average method, and carries on the longitudinal and horizontal check to the forecast result and its precision. Its precision meets the requirement of load forecasting, and finally gives the medium and long term load forecasting value which is most suitable for Nanyang area. Then on the basis of the analysis of the forecast results, it is found that the load gap of Nanyang power network is gradually widening, and the construction of power supply project is lagging behind, which causes the phenomenon of hard electricity shortage in this area for a long time, and has an impact on the security and stability of the power grid. It is suggested that the potential of deep-digging demand-side management is the most effective way to deal with the power shortage. This paper analyzes the present situation of local demand-side management, the existing problems and the factors restricting the development of demand-side management, and puts forward relevant demand-side management opinions adapted to the characteristics of the region from the aspects of management, technology and economy, so as to move the peak and fill the valley effectively. To improve the regional load rate and reduce the load gap in order to ease the power supply pressure and ensure the safe operation of the power grid.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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