【摘要】：隨著市場壞境的復雜化和市場競爭的激烈化,上市公司能否實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展是一個重要的研究問題。眾所周知,企業(yè)的過快增長或者過慢增長都會給企業(yè)帶來問題。增長過快,會引起公司現(xiàn)有的財務資源不足以支持其發(fā)展,此時如果盲目擴張,企業(yè)會有破產(chǎn)的風險；反之,如果增長過慢,表明公司有盈余的財務資源沒有被充分的利用,如果不及時解決,則會被競爭激烈的市場淘汰或者被收購。在西方國家,可持續(xù)增長問題得到了廣泛的重視,然而在我國,上市公司的管理層對這一問題的重視程度還不高�；诖�,研究上市公司可持續(xù)增長問題具有重大的意義。 股利政策、資本結構和投資融資決策是財務管理的三大政策,而股利政策作為三大財務管理決策中的重要組成部分,是其他決策的延伸。在股利政策中,現(xiàn)金股利政策是最為重要的。在可持續(xù)增長的兩大因素(經(jīng)營效率和財務政策)中,財務政策由資產(chǎn)負債率和留存收益率兩個指標體現(xiàn),而留存收益率與現(xiàn)金股利支付率是此消彼長的關系。因此,現(xiàn)金股利政策就和可持續(xù)增長建立起了聯(lián)系。具體來說,現(xiàn)金股利政策影響公司的融資能力和融資決策,最終會對上市公司的可持續(xù)增長產(chǎn)生影響。 改革開放以來,我國鋼鐵行業(yè)迅速的成長和發(fā)展。在產(chǎn)量、產(chǎn)品種類和多樣化等方面都取得了進步。然而,金融危機以后,我國整體鋼鐵行業(yè)整體利潤顯著下降,并且在2009年,諸多鋼鐵上市公司出現(xiàn)虧損。雖然此后業(yè)績稍有好轉,但是鋼鐵上市公司整體業(yè)績?nèi)员憩F(xiàn)不佳,增長緩慢。作為工業(yè)的基礎行業(yè),一方面鋼鐵行業(yè)具有較高的產(chǎn)業(yè)關聯(lián)性,另一方面,鋼鐵行業(yè)又受到鐵礦石等原材料的影響。因此,研究我國鋼鐵上市公司可持續(xù)增長與現(xiàn)金股利政策的相關性具有重要的意義。 本文選取2007-2011年A股鋼鐵上市公司作為樣本,以范霍恩的靜態(tài)可持續(xù)增長模型為基礎,按照差異增長率對樣本進行分類,并且結合不同情況下的投資機會進行研究假設,從規(guī)范研究的角度提出上市公司在未來不同的投資機會下、管理層應當采取怎樣的理性現(xiàn)金股利政策才能實現(xiàn)其財務可持續(xù)增長。 實證的研究結果表明,我國鋼鐵上市公司在制定現(xiàn)金股利政策時存在非理性行為。在高速增長的情況下,當公司未來有較好的投資機會時,公司管理層會增加現(xiàn)金股利。相反,當公司未來投資機會不佳時,公司管理層會減少現(xiàn)金股利。這說明公司管理層在制定現(xiàn)金股利政策時對未來投資機會考慮欠佳�；诖�,本文分析我國鋼鐵上市公司的非理性行為,并對其行為從投資者、政府部門和上市公司三個方面提出相應的意見和建議,旨在希望上市公司能夠充分發(fā)揮現(xiàn)金股利政策對其可持續(xù)增長產(chǎn)生積極的影響。
[Abstract]:With the complication of market bad situation and the fierce market competition, it is an important research question whether listed companies can realize sustainable development. As we all know, too fast growth or too slow growth will bring problems to enterprises. If the growth rate is too fast, the existing financial resources of the company will not be sufficient to support its development. At this time, if the company expands blindly, the enterprise will run the risk of bankruptcy. Conversely, if the growth rate is too slow, the financial resources that indicate the company has a surplus will not be fully utilized. If it is not solved in time, it will be eliminated or acquired in a highly competitive market. In western countries, the problem of sustainable growth has received extensive attention. However, in our country, the management of listed companies pay little attention to this issue. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the sustainable growth of listed companies. Dividend policy, capital structure and investment financing decision are the three major policies of financial management, and dividend policy, as an important part of the three major financial management decisions, is the extension of other decisions. In dividend policy, cash dividend policy is the most important. In the two factors of sustainable growth (operating efficiency and financial policy), the financial policy is reflected by the asset liability ratio and the retention rate of return, while the relationship between the retention rate and the cash dividend payment rate is the same. Therefore, the cash dividend policy and sustainable growth to establish a link. Specifically, the cash dividend policy will affect the financing ability and financing decision of the company, and will ultimately have an impact on the sustainable growth of listed companies. Since the reform and opening up, China's iron and steel industry has grown rapidly and developed. Progress has been made in terms of output, product types and diversification. However, after the financial crisis, the overall profits of the whole steel industry in China decreased significantly, and in 2009, many listed steel companies made losses. Although the results improved slightly since then, but the overall performance of listed steel companies still underperforming, slow growth. As the basic industry of industry, on the one hand, the iron and steel industry has a higher industrial relevance, on the other hand, the iron and steel industry is also affected by iron ore and other raw materials. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the correlation between the sustainable growth and the cash dividend policy of China's listed iron and steel companies. In this paper, A share steel listed companies from 2007 to 2011 are selected as samples, based on van Horne's static sustainable growth model, the samples are classified according to different growth rates, and the research hypotheses are combined with investment opportunities under different conditions. From the perspective of normative research, this paper puts forward what kind of rational cash dividend policy should be adopted by the management in order to realize the sustainable financial growth of listed companies in the future under different investment opportunities. The empirical results show that irrationality exists in the formulation of cash dividend policy in China's listed iron and steel companies. In the case of high growth, when the company has better investment opportunities in the future, the company management will increase cash dividend. On the contrary, when the company's future investment opportunities are not good, the company's management will reduce the cash dividend. This shows that the company's management in the formulation of cash dividend policy for future investment opportunities are not well considered. Based on this, this paper analyzes the irrational behavior of listed iron and steel companies in our country, and puts forward corresponding opinions and suggestions from three aspects of investors, government departments and listed companies. The aim is to make full use of the cash dividend policy to exert the positive influence on the sustainable growth of listed companies.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F426.31

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