【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展,人類活動(dòng)對(duì)環(huán)境產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響,能源短缺、環(huán)境污染和氣候惡化已成為困擾全球的嚴(yán)重問題。加之電力市場化的進(jìn)程不斷深入,用戶對(duì)電能可靠性和質(zhì)量的要求也在不斷提升。電力行業(yè)面臨前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇,建設(shè)更加安全、可靠、環(huán)保、經(jīng)濟(jì)的電力系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)成為全球電力行業(yè)的共同目標(biāo)。智能電網(wǎng)也由此應(yīng)運(yùn)而生。 作為21世紀(jì)人類最偉大的能源技術(shù)變革,智能電網(wǎng)已成為當(dāng)今各國創(chuàng)新研究的熱點(diǎn)和焦點(diǎn)。智能電網(wǎng)是現(xiàn)代科學(xué)技術(shù)、先進(jìn)管理理念與傳統(tǒng)電網(wǎng)的完美結(jié)合,是解決能源安全與環(huán)境問題、應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化、實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的必然選擇。電網(wǎng)智能化的發(fā)展離不開信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)、自動(dòng)化、電力系統(tǒng)的技術(shù)進(jìn)步,同時(shí)智能電網(wǎng)建設(shè)也必將促進(jìn)我國科學(xué)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新,帶動(dòng)新能源、新材料、新服務(wù)等戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。 隨著智能電網(wǎng)的建設(shè)進(jìn)入實(shí)質(zhì)性階段,其運(yùn)行中的安全問題受到越來越廣泛的重視。本文在充分的理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上,針對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行中可能存在的危險(xiǎn)源,構(gòu)建了智能電網(wǎng)危險(xiǎn)源評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。提出了危險(xiǎn)度的概念及度量方法,并以可信性理論為基礎(chǔ),建立了可信性熵權(quán)系數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)模型,進(jìn)而結(jié)合實(shí)際情況,分別從發(fā)生頻率與影響程度兩方面對(duì)我國智能電網(wǎng)危險(xiǎn)源進(jìn)行了分析,從而在相應(yīng)的置信區(qū)間下,測算智能電網(wǎng)的危險(xiǎn)程度。最后,本文通過算例分析,驗(yàn)證了可信性熵權(quán)系數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)方法的科學(xué)性與可行性,并對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)危險(xiǎn)源的監(jiān)控提出初步建議,為智能電網(wǎng)的安全管理提供理論與方法支持。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, human activities have a great impact on the environment. Energy shortage, environmental pollution and climate deterioration have become a serious problem in the world. In addition, the process of electricity marketization continues to deepen, and the requirements of power reliability and quality are also increasing. The electric power industry is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities. Building a more secure, reliable, environmentally friendly and economical power system has become the common goal of the global power industry. The smart grid also arises at the historic moment. As the greatest energy technology revolution in the 21st century, smart grid has become the hot spot and focus of innovation research in various countries. Smart grid is a perfect combination of modern science and technology, advanced management concept and traditional power grid. It is the inevitable choice to solve the problems of energy security and environment, to deal with global climate change and to realize the sustainable development of economy and society. The development of power grid intelligence is inseparable from the development of information network, automation and power system technology. At the same time, the construction of smart grid will promote the innovation of science and technology in our country, and promote the development of new strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, new service and so on. With the construction of smart grid entering the substantive stage, the security problem in its operation has been paid more and more attention. On the basis of sufficient theoretical research, this paper constructs an evaluation index system of smart grid hazard sources, which may exist in the operation of smart grid. This paper puts forward the concept of risk degree and its measurement method, and based on the credibility theory, establishes the evaluation model of credibility entropy weight coefficient, and then combines with the actual situation. In this paper, the risk sources of smart grid in China are analyzed from two aspects of occurrence frequency and influence degree, and the dangerous degree of smart grid is calculated under the corresponding confidence interval. Finally, through the example analysis, this paper verifies the reliability entropy weight coefficient evaluation method is scientific and feasible, and puts forward the preliminary suggestion to the smart grid dangerous source monitoring, provides the theory and the method support for the smart grid security management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61;TM76

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