【摘要】：當今,科技創(chuàng)新已經(jīng)成為評價企業(yè)核心競爭力的重要指標之一,為企業(yè)的發(fā)展提供著源源不斷的動力。國家《“十二五”產(chǎn)業(yè)技術創(chuàng)新規(guī)劃》中明確指出,消費品創(chuàng)新是我國未來一段時間重點推進的四大領域之一。 科技創(chuàng)新是現(xiàn)代企業(yè)生存和發(fā)展的必經(jīng)之路。伴隨著不斷的科技創(chuàng)新,企業(yè)不僅能夠提升現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品與服務的品質,還可以拓展和開發(fā)新的領域,為企業(yè)帶來更多效益。從社會層面來說,科技創(chuàng)新是社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要動力,持續(xù)高效的科技創(chuàng)新能夠為經(jīng)濟增長不斷注入新鮮活力,促進我國經(jīng)濟不斷向前發(fā)展。煙草企業(yè)作為國有大型企業(yè),在自身發(fā)展的同時還承擔著更加重大的社會責任。因此,如何實現(xiàn)科技創(chuàng)新,不斷推進煙草產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新是煙草企業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展的所要解決的重大問題。 科技創(chuàng)新給企業(yè)帶來機遇的同時,也伴隨著諸多風險。這些風險有些源自企業(yè)內部,有些是有企業(yè)外部環(huán)境引起的。引起風險的因素也各不相同,在不同的情況下呈現(xiàn)出不同的特征。最重要的是,這些風險的產(chǎn)生會對科技創(chuàng)新項目產(chǎn)生不利影響：有的會阻礙科技創(chuàng)新項目的進度,使企業(yè)錯失市場機遇；有的會增加項目開發(fā)成本,影響企業(yè)利潤；有點甚至會導致項目失敗,對企業(yè)產(chǎn)生嚴重的后果。 本文結合卷煙企業(yè)實際情況,構建了卷煙企業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新項目風險分析與評價的模型。該模型包括了對卷煙企業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新項目的風險識別與分類、風險優(yōu)選、風險分析和風險評價四大模塊。卷煙企業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新項目管理者能夠通過該模型得出的風險評價結果采取相應措施,避免風險的發(fā)生或者減小風險的影響程度。 首先,通過專家調查,歸納得到65項卷煙企業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新項目風險因素：再采用專家打分法,篩選出符合卷煙企業(yè)的案例科技創(chuàng)新項目的34項主要風險因素。 其次,通過AHP法確定各類風險對案例項目的影響權重以及各風險因素對風險產(chǎn)生的影響權重。 最后,采用模糊綜合評價的方法,對得到的各權重結果作進一步處理,從而得出各類型風險以及各風險因素對科技創(chuàng)新項目的評價結果。 這一評價模型與評價方法,在卷煙企業(yè)科技創(chuàng)新項目風險分析與評價中具有一定的應用參考價值,能幫助管理者判斷科技創(chuàng)新項目風險因素的影響大小,從而有重點、有針對性地對科技創(chuàng)新項目風險進行控制與防范,提高科技創(chuàng)新的效率。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, scientific and technological innovation has become one of the important indicators to evaluate the core competitiveness of enterprises, which provides a continuous driving force for the development of enterprises. In the 12th Five-Year Plan of Industry Technology Innovation, it is pointed out that the innovation of consumer goods is one of the four key areas to be promoted in China for a period of time. Scientific and technological innovation is the only way for modern enterprises to survive and develop. With the continuous innovation of science and technology, enterprises can not only improve the quality of existing products and services, but also expand and develop new fields, bringing more benefits for enterprises. From the social level, scientific and technological innovation is an important driving force for the social and economic development. Sustained and efficient scientific and technological innovation can continuously inject fresh vitality into the economic growth and promote the continuous development of our country's economy. As a large-scale state-owned enterprise, tobacco enterprises are also shouldering greater social responsibility while developing themselves. Therefore, how to realize the innovation of science and technology and promote the innovation of tobacco products are the important problems to be solved in the sustainable development of tobacco enterprises. Scientific and technological innovation brings opportunities to enterprises, but also with a lot of risks. Some of these risks come from within the enterprise, and some are caused by the external environment of the enterprise. The factors that cause the risk are different, showing different characteristics in different situations. Most importantly, these risks will have a negative impact on STI projects: some will hinder the progress of STI projects and make enterprises miss market opportunities, some will increase project development costs and affect corporate profits. A little can even lead to project failure, with serious consequences for the enterprise. According to the actual situation of cigarette enterprises, this paper constructs a model of risk analysis and evaluation of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises. The model includes four modules: risk identification and classification, risk selection, risk analysis and risk evaluation. The managers of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises can take corresponding measures through the risk evaluation results obtained by the model to avoid the occurrence of risks or reduce the impact of risks. Firstly, through expert investigation, 65 items of risk factors of scientific and technological innovation projects of cigarette enterprises are summarized. Then, 34 main risk factors of scientific and technological innovation projects in accordance with cigarette enterprises' cases are selected by using expert scoring method. Secondly, the influence weight of all kinds of risk on the case project and the influence weight of each risk factor on the risk are determined by AHP method. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to further deal with the results of each weight, so as to obtain the evaluation results of various types of risks and risk factors to scientific and technological innovation projects. This evaluation model and evaluation method have certain application reference value in the risk analysis and evaluation of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises, and can help managers to judge the influence of the risk factors of scientific and technological innovation projects, so as to focus on the risk analysis and evaluation of scientific and technological innovation projects in cigarette enterprises. To control and prevent the risks of scientific and technological innovation projects and improve the efficiency of scientific and technological innovation.
【學位授予單位】：昆明理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F273.1;F426.89

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