【摘要】：能效電廠是提高能源效率，實(shí)現(xiàn)供需資源協(xié)同優(yōu)化的電力需求側(cè)管理的重要途徑，河北省建立以政府引導(dǎo)、市場運(yùn)作、多方參與的能效電廠綜合運(yùn)作模式，成為一種創(chuàng)新且典型的運(yùn)作模式。項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險評估和風(fēng)險控制措施的研究將有效減小風(fēng)險發(fā)生可能性和損失程度，對于河北省能效電廠項(xiàng)目的順利開展以及該模式的推廣具有重要意義。 論文在對河北省能效電廠運(yùn)作模式調(diào)查分析的基礎(chǔ)上，首先，運(yùn)用WBS-RBS風(fēng)險矩陣與故障樹法組合的方法，全面系統(tǒng)地識別項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險。以河北省能效電廠項(xiàng)目工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險分解結(jié)構(gòu)耦合得到的風(fēng)險事件為基礎(chǔ)，構(gòu)建故障樹，求解最小割集，得到具有模式特色的能效電廠項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險因素清單。其次，用Logistic混沌序列改進(jìn)蒙特卡羅算法進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險分析。確定輸出變量與輸入風(fēng)險因素的函數(shù)關(guān)系式以及各風(fēng)險因素的概率分布，運(yùn)用Logistic混沌理論產(chǎn)生不依賴于假定分布的隨機(jī)數(shù)，，通過多次模擬確定項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險的概率分布，得到項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險發(fā)生的最大可能性等級和各個風(fēng)險因素的靈敏度排序。最后，根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果和靈敏度排序提出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險指標(biāo)及運(yùn)作過程的風(fēng)險控制措施。論文提出的風(fēng)險分析方法和控制措施可以為政府等職能部門防范風(fēng)險以及全國能效電廠建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的順利開展提供參考，從而提高我國能源效率，促進(jìn)節(jié)能減排目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:Energy efficiency power plant is an important way to improve energy efficiency and realize demand-side management of power supply and demand. Hebei Province has established a comprehensive operation mode of energy efficiency power plant with government guidance, market operation and multi-participation. Become an innovative and typical mode of operation. The study of risk assessment and risk control measures of the project will effectively reduce the possibility of risk occurrence and the degree of loss. It is of great significance for the smooth development of the energy efficiency power plant project in Hebei Province and the promotion of the model. Based on the investigation and analysis of the operation mode of energy efficiency power plants in Hebei Province, firstly, the method of combining WBS-RBS risk matrix with fault tree method is used to identify the project risks in a comprehensive and systematic way. Based on the risk events obtained from the coupling of the work breakdown structure and the risk decomposition structure of the energy efficiency power plant project in Hebei Province, the fault tree is constructed, the minimum cut set is solved, and the list of risk factors of the energy efficiency power plant project with the pattern characteristics is obtained. Secondly, we use Logistic chaotic sequence to improve Monte Carlo algorithm for project risk analysis. The function relationship between the output variable and the input risk factor and the probability distribution of each risk factor are determined. The probability distribution of the total risk of the project is determined by multiple simulations by using Logistic chaos theory to generate random numbers independent of the assumed distribution. Get the maximum probability level of project risk occurrence and the sensitivity ranking of each risk factor. Finally, according to the result of simulation and the ranking of sensitivity, the risk control measures of project risk index and operation process are put forward. The risk analysis method and control measures proposed in this paper can provide a reference for the government and other functional departments to prevent risks and the smooth development of the national energy efficiency power plant construction project, thus improving the energy efficiency and promoting the realization of energy saving and emission reduction goals.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TP301.6;F426.61

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