本文選題：海外投資 + 銅礦產(chǎn)資源�。� 參考：《江西理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本論文來源于教育部人文社會科學(xué)研究規(guī)劃基金項(xiàng)目“重要礦產(chǎn)資源海外開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)技術(shù)研究”（項(xiàng)目編號：12YJA790208）。論文以海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)為研究對象，在詳細(xì)綜述投資區(qū)位選擇國內(nèi)外研究進(jìn)展以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)相關(guān)方法的基礎(chǔ)上，應(yīng)用理論研究與案例分析相結(jié)合、定性分析與定量研究相結(jié)合等方法對海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)進(jìn)行綜合研究。本論文的主要研究內(nèi)容與結(jié)論如下： 首先，本論文在國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)之上，分析了世界銅礦產(chǎn)資源的分布現(xiàn)狀、特點(diǎn)、生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)情況以及我國開發(fā)利用海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源的模式與現(xiàn)狀，總結(jié)了我國開發(fā)利用海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源所存在的主要問題。 其次，在深入分析我國銅礦產(chǎn)資源供需現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了影響銅礦產(chǎn)資源需求的五大因素，并利用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)建立了銅礦產(chǎn)資源需求情景數(shù)學(xué)模型，同時(shí)對銅礦產(chǎn)資源需求的宏觀情景進(jìn)行了設(shè)定，測算出了2015~2025年中國銅礦的需求情景。 第三，在海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識別的基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建了海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，該指標(biāo)體系包含了八個一級指標(biāo)和二十三個二級指標(biāo)。同時(shí)在物元理論的基礎(chǔ)上引入云模型，并利用Matlab軟件進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的編程，構(gòu)建了基于云物元理論的海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略選區(qū)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)模型。 第四，選取了12個銅礦產(chǎn)資源相對比較豐富的國家作為應(yīng)用對象，利用所構(gòu)建的模型分別對其進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的評價(jià)分析，，提出了我國海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)投資區(qū)位選擇的戰(zhàn)略性建議，即我國海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)首選風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)等級為“較低”的五個國家，次選風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)等級為“一般”的四個國家，慎選風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)等級為“較高”和“高”的三個國家，并提出了相應(yīng)的對策與建議。 研究結(jié)果表明：模型評價(jià)的結(jié)果非常符合我國海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)實(shí)踐所涉足的國家，因此，本文所構(gòu)建的框架體系與理論模型具有較好的理論與實(shí)際推廣價(jià)值，可以為我國海外銅礦產(chǎn)資源開發(fā)提供相應(yīng)的理論依據(jù)與決策支持方法。
[Abstract]:This paper comes from the Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Research Planning Fund project, "study on risk Assessment Technology of important Mineral Resources overseas Development Strategic constituency" (Project No.: 12YJA790208). This paper takes the overseas copper mineral resources development strategic district risk evaluation as the research object, on the basis of the detailed summary investment location choice domestic and foreign research progress as well as the risk appraisal correlation method, applies the theory research and the case analysis unifies. Combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, the risk assessment of overseas copper mineral resources development strategic district is studied. The main contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows: firstly, based on the related research at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the distribution status, characteristics, production of copper mineral resources in the world. The consumption situation and the pattern and present situation of overseas copper mineral resources development and utilization in China are summarized, and the main problems existing in the development and utilization of overseas copper mineral resources in China are summarized. Secondly, on the basis of deeply analyzing the present situation of supply and demand of copper mineral resources in China, the paper analyzes the five factors that affect the demand for copper mineral resources, and establishes the scenario mathematical model of copper mineral resources demand by using BP neural network. At the same time, the macroscopical situation of copper mineral resource demand is set up, and the demand scenario of copper mine in China from 2015 to 2025 is calculated. Thirdly, on the basis of identifying the risk factors of overseas copper mineral resources development strategic constituency, the risk evaluation index system of overseas copper mineral resources development strategy district is constructed. The index system includes eight first-grade indexes and twenty-three second-class indexes. At the same time, the cloud model is introduced on the basis of matter-element theory, and the corresponding programming is carried out by using Matlab software, and the risk evaluation model of overseas copper mineral resources development strategic district based on cloud matter-element theory is constructed. Fourthly, 12 countries with relatively rich copper mineral resources are selected as the application objects, and the models are used to evaluate and analyze them in detail. The paper puts forward the strategic suggestions for the location selection of overseas copper mineral resources development and investment in China, that is, five countries with lower risk evaluation grade and four countries with a secondary risk evaluation grade "average" in overseas copper mineral resources development. Three countries with higher risk evaluation grade and higher risk evaluation grade are carefully selected, and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The results show that the results of the model evaluation are very consistent with the countries involved in the overseas copper mineral resources development in China. Therefore, the framework system and the theoretical model constructed in this paper have good theoretical and practical promotion value. It can provide corresponding theoretical basis and decision support method for overseas copper mineral resources development in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.32

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