本文選題：中石化 + 油價(jià)波動(dòng)�。� 參考：《中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：石油作為重要的戰(zhàn)略資源，對(duì)世界各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到了舉足輕重的作用。同時(shí)，由于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展與石油資源的不可再生性之間的矛盾日漸突出，再加上金融、政治等領(lǐng)域的影響，導(dǎo)致21世紀(jì)以來(lái)國(guó)際原油價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)。國(guó)際油價(jià)的波動(dòng)通過(guò)價(jià)格的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制給石油企業(yè)的盈利能力造成了一定程度的影響。 我國(guó)在國(guó)際原油定價(jià)市場(chǎng)上缺少發(fā)言權(quán)，而在國(guó)內(nèi)三大石油公司中，中石化作為中國(guó)最大的石油煉制商和石油產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)商，，而煉化與原油銷(xiāo)售板塊與油價(jià)的漲跌關(guān)系最為密切，因此中石化受?chē)?guó)際油價(jià)波動(dòng)的影響最大。中石化目前面臨的主要油價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為：原油的采購(gòu)價(jià)格與國(guó)際市場(chǎng)接軌；另一方面，國(guó)內(nèi)成品油的定價(jià)機(jī)制是由國(guó)家發(fā)改委統(tǒng)一制定基準(zhǔn)價(jià)，國(guó)內(nèi)油價(jià)相對(duì)滯后于國(guó)際油價(jià)。因此，國(guó)際油價(jià)的波動(dòng)會(huì)在很大程度上影響中石化的利潤(rùn)水平，從而影響其盈利能力。因此，分析油價(jià)波動(dòng)對(duì)中石化盈利能力的影響，進(jìn)而提出應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)波動(dòng)的對(duì)策，對(duì)于中石化的可持續(xù)發(fā)展以及國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與能源安全有重大意義。 文章首先在油價(jià)與盈利能力相關(guān)理論的研究基礎(chǔ)上，分析了油價(jià)波動(dòng)與企業(yè)盈利能力的關(guān)系，借鑒已有的盈利能力指標(biāo)體系，構(gòu)建符合中石化企業(yè)現(xiàn)狀與本文分析內(nèi)容的盈利能力指標(biāo)體系。接下來(lái)利用因子分析和回歸分析的方法對(duì)油價(jià)波動(dòng)背景下中石化的盈利能力進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，同樣的對(duì)中石油、BP公司以及殼牌公司進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析進(jìn)而進(jìn)行橫向比較，通過(guò)實(shí)證中得出的四大石油公司盈利能力水平與WTI油價(jià)的回歸模型，通過(guò)比較二次項(xiàng)系數(shù)與擬合優(yōu)度，分析油價(jià)波動(dòng)對(duì)各大石油公司盈利能力的影響程度，并分析油價(jià)對(duì)中石化盈利能力影響程度不同的原因，進(jìn)而從4個(gè)方面提出中石化應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)波動(dòng)、提高盈利能力的對(duì)策與建議，包括協(xié)調(diào)上下游業(yè)務(wù)以協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展盈利能力、參與石油期貨交易降低盈利風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、推動(dòng)成品油定價(jià)機(jī)制的改革等，并為國(guó)內(nèi)石油公司規(guī)避油價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、提高盈利水平提供經(jīng)驗(yàn)借鑒。
[Abstract]:As an important strategic resource, petroleum plays an important role in the economic development of countries all over the world. At the same time, the contradiction between the rapid development of the world economy and the non-reproducibility of oil resources is becoming more and more prominent, together with the influence of finance, politics and other fields, which leads to the sharp fluctuation of the international crude oil price since the 21st century. The fluctuation of international oil price has a certain degree of influence on the profitability of oil enterprises through the price transmission mechanism. China lacks a voice in the international crude oil pricing market. Among the three major domestic oil companies, Sinopec, as China's largest oil refiner and producer of petroleum products, has the most close relationship with the plate of crude oil sales and the rise and fall of oil prices. As a result, Sinopec is most affected by the fluctuations in international oil prices. The main oil price risks faced by Sinopec are as follows: crude oil purchase price is in line with the international market; on the other hand, the pricing mechanism of domestic refined oil is determined by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the domestic oil price lags behind the international oil price. Therefore, the fluctuation of international oil price will affect Sinopec's profit level to a great extent, thus affecting its profitability. Therefore, it is of great significance for Sinopec's sustainable development and national economic development and energy security to analyze the impact of oil price fluctuation on Sinopec's profitability and put forward countermeasures to deal with oil price fluctuation. On the basis of the theory of oil price and profitability, this paper analyzes the relationship between oil price fluctuation and enterprise profitability, and draws lessons from the existing profitability index system. Build the profitability index system which accords with the present situation of Sinopec enterprises and the content of this paper. Then we use factor analysis and regression analysis to analyze Sinopec's profitability under the background of oil price fluctuation. The regression model between the profitability level of the four oil companies and the WTI oil price is obtained through the empirical analysis. By comparing the quadratic coefficient and the goodness of fit, the influence of oil price fluctuation on the profitability of the major oil companies is analyzed. The reasons why the oil price has different influence on Sinopec's profitability are analyzed, and the countermeasures and suggestions for Sinopec to deal with the fluctuation of oil price and improve its profitability are put forward from four aspects, including the coordination of upstream and downstream business in order to coordinate the development of profitability. To participate in oil futures trading to reduce profit risk, to promote the reform of pricing mechanism of refined oil products, and to provide experience for domestic oil companies to avoid oil price risk and improve profit level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.72;F406.7;F764.1

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