本文選題：煤炭工業(yè) + 煤炭資源整合��； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：山西是我國的煤炭大省,自改革開放以來,我國每年的原煤產(chǎn)量約有25%來自于山西省。煤炭工業(yè)也是山西省經(jīng)濟的重要組成部分,近年來其增加值占山西省工業(yè)總增加值約60%,2012年上半年繳稅額占全省稅收總額的56.99%,可見,山西省煤炭工業(yè)的發(fā)展情況對我國整體煤炭工業(yè)以及山西經(jīng)濟都有著十分重大的影響,故對其影響因素的分析十分重要。 2008年山西省進行了我國最大規(guī)模的煤炭資源整合。長期以來,山西省煤炭工業(yè)存在著許多混亂的私營煤礦,無序且過度的開采一方面造成了山西省煤炭資源的大量浪費,另一方面安全事故頻頻發(fā)生。煤改至今已有五年,效果也初步顯現(xiàn)。作為山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展的重大影響事件,煤改是否對該工業(yè)的發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生顯著影響,這一探討也有較為重要的意義。 山西省煤炭工業(yè)的發(fā)展十分重要,那么其關(guān)鍵的影響因素有哪些?各因素對該工業(yè)發(fā)展影響的程度有多大?煤改是否對山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展的整體結(jié)構(gòu)有明顯的改變?這是對于探究該工業(yè)發(fā)展以及相關(guān)政策制定十分重要的問題,也是本文試圖解決的問題。 在已有的對于煤炭產(chǎn)量及其相關(guān)因素的文獻中,關(guān)于我國整體及世界煤炭產(chǎn)量的預(yù)測和影響因素的研究所使用的分析方法較為全面；但針對山西省煤炭工業(yè)以及山西省煤炭資源整合的研究大多數(shù)集中于定性分析,少數(shù)運用了統(tǒng)計學(xué)的方法體系,在計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)建模的定量分析方面,山西省煤炭工業(yè)的相關(guān)研究還相對欠缺。 本文的目的是研究山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素,旨在從計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)的角度確定對山西省煤炭工業(yè)的主要影響因素,并分析煤改是否對該工業(yè)發(fā)展的結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生了影響。具體來說,本文主要分為以下六章： 第一,介紹研究的背景、目的以及思路。 第二,對已有的相關(guān)研究進行總結(jié)與評價。 第三,介紹與產(chǎn)量影響因素相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟理論,主要包括生產(chǎn)理論和供求理論,為后文的分析奠定經(jīng)濟理論基礎(chǔ)。 第四,高度重視山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展的研究,對其情況作出介紹。主要包括該工業(yè)對我國整體煤炭工業(yè)以及山西省經(jīng)濟的重要性,并對原煤產(chǎn)量以及煤炭工業(yè)內(nèi)主要指標的發(fā)展做出回顧與分析。 第五,進行實證分析并得出結(jié)論。本文選擇山西省原煤產(chǎn)量作為被解釋變量,選取2001至2012年的季度數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證分析。分析結(jié)果認為,山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展的主要影響因素為資本投入、從業(yè)人員數(shù)、外運量以及礦井數(shù),且始于2008年的煤改對山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)的變化產(chǎn)生了影響。 另外,本文也得出了一些具有參考意義的結(jié)論：首先,山西省原煤產(chǎn)量對外運的依賴性很強,這在一定程度上反映了煤炭工業(yè)潛在的風(fēng)險；其次,價格對于山西省原煤產(chǎn)量的影響并不顯著,一方面是由于山西省原煤產(chǎn)量受外運影響很大,另一方面是由于我國能源消費中的煤炭消費量巨大,全國煤炭需求較旺盛,而山西又是我國的產(chǎn)煤大省,故對其而言產(chǎn)量對價格的變化相對不敏感。 第六,提出政策建議。在前面對山西省煤炭工業(yè)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,針對分析結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,主要包括持續(xù)加大資本投入、大力發(fā)展延伸省內(nèi)煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈以及繼續(xù)深化煤炭資源整合等。 總體來說,針對已有相關(guān)研究主要集中在定性方面,定量研究較少,本文的主要特點是以事實數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù),選擇計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)建模的方法來進行分析,一方面確定山西省原煤產(chǎn)量的關(guān)鍵影響因素,并定量的探究各指標對煤炭產(chǎn)量的影響；另一方面檢驗煤改對山西省煤炭工業(yè)發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)影響的效果是否顯著,在此基礎(chǔ)上對比煤改前后該工業(yè)發(fā)展的不同。 本文還有一些不足之處,由于數(shù)據(jù)獲取的局限性,部分變量在進行預(yù)處理時可能會引起其方差比實際情況偏小,從而導(dǎo)致t檢驗的顯著性增強；且對煤改之后效果進行回歸時的樣本量相對較小,故煤改后的回歸結(jié)果只是作為一個參考。
[Abstract]:Shanxi is a big coal province in China. Since the reform and opening up, about 25% of the output of raw coal in China is from Shanxi province. The coal industry is also an important part of the economy of Shanxi province. In recent years, its added value accounts for about 60% of the total industrial added value of Shanxi province. In the first half of 2012, the amount of tax accounted for 56.99% of the total tax revenue of the province. It is visible, Shanxi province coal. The development of industry has a great impact on China's overall coal industry and Shanxi's economy. Therefore, the analysis of its influencing factors is very important.
In 2008, Shanxi province carried out the largest integration of coal resources in China. For a long time, there were many chaotic private coal mines in the coal industry of Shanxi province. On the one hand, the disordered and excessive mining caused a lot of waste of coal resources in Shanxi province. On the other hand, the safety accidents occurred frequently. It has been five years since the coal reform has been changed, and the effect has also appeared preliminarily. As a major impact event in the development of the coal industry in Shanxi, coal reform has a significant impact on the industrial development structure, which is also of great significance.
The development of the coal industry in Shanxi is very important, so what are the key factors that affect the development of the industrial development? Is there a significant change in the overall structure of the coal industry in Shanxi province? This is a very important problem for the development of the industry and the relevant policy formulation. The article is an attempt to solve the problem.
In the literature on the coal production and its related factors, the analysis method used in the research on the prediction and influencing factors of the overall and world coal production in China is more comprehensive. However, most of the studies on the coal industry in Shanxi and the integration of coal resources in Shanxi are concentrated on the qualitative analysis, and a few use statistics. In terms of quantitative analysis of econometric modeling, relative research on coal industry in Shanxi is relatively lacking.
The purpose of this paper is to study the influencing factors of the development of coal industry in Shanxi province. The aim of this paper is to determine the main influencing factors of coal industry in Shanxi province from the perspective of econometrics, and to analyze the influence of coal reform on the structure of the industrial development. In particular, this paper is divided into the following six chapters.
First, the background, purpose and thought of the study are introduced.
Second, summarize and evaluate the existing research.
Third, it introduces economic theories related to yield factors, including production theory and supply and demand theory, which lays the foundation for economic analysis.
Fourth, attach great importance to the research on the development of coal industry in Shanxi Province, introduce its situation, mainly including the importance of the industry to the whole coal industry and the economy of Shanxi Province, and review and analyze the production of raw coal and the development of the main indexes in the coal industry.
Fifth, we make an empirical analysis and draw a conclusion. This paper selects the output of raw coal in Shanxi as an explanatory variable and selects the quarterly data from 2001 to 2012 to carry out an empirical analysis. The results show that the main factors affecting the development of coal industry in Shanxi are capital input, number of employees, foreign transportation and the number of mines, and it began in 2008. The change has had an impact on the change of the development structure of Shanxi's coal industry.
In addition, this paper also draws some reference conclusions: first, Shanxi province raw coal production has a strong dependence on foreign transport, which reflects the potential risk of coal industry to a certain extent. Secondly, the impact of price on the output of raw coal in Shanxi is not significant, one side is that the output of raw coal in Shanxi is greatly affected by the foreign transport. On the other hand, because of the huge consumption of coal in our energy consumption, the coal demand in China is very strong, and Shanxi is a big coal producing province in China, so the output of the coal is relatively insensitive to the change of the price.
Sixth, put forward the policy suggestions. On the basis of the analysis of the coal industry in Shanxi Province, we put forward the corresponding policy suggestions on the basis of the analysis results, including the continuous increase of capital investment, the development of the coal industry chain in the extended province and the continuous deepening of the integration of coal resources.
In general, the main characteristics of the related research are qualitative and quantitative research. The main feature of this paper is to choose the method of econometric modeling based on the fact data. On the one hand, the key factors of the output of raw coal in Shanxi province are determined, and the influence of each index on the coal output is explored. On the other hand, the effect of coal alteration on the development structure of Shanxi coal industry is significant. On this basis, the difference of industrial development before and after coal transformation is compared.
There are some shortcomings in this paper. Due to the limitation of data acquisition, some variables may cause the variance of the variance to be smaller than the actual situation, which leads to the significant enhancement of the t test. The regression results of coal after the coal modification are relatively small, so the regression results after coal modification are only a reference.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.21;F224

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