本文選題：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué) + 模型仿真模擬　； 參考：《中國石油大學(xué)（華東）》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：油田企業(yè)的油氣資源開發(fā)活動(dòng)一方面為工業(yè)發(fā)展提供基本的能源和物質(zhì)來源，另一方面油氣資源的勘探和開發(fā)對原有的自然生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)造成了一定的影響，使油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)與外界生態(tài)系統(tǒng)之間失去了平衡，物質(zhì)和能量循環(huán)過程進(jìn)一步加速，日益增多的生態(tài)環(huán)境問題制約著油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的持續(xù)、健康、穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 本文首先分析和研究了油田企業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的基本理論和系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的基本原理及方法，在明確了油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建的原則和依據(jù)的前提下，對勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的作用機(jī)理進(jìn)行分析，從而建立勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，為下一步系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型的構(gòu)建和運(yùn)用提供可供選擇的指標(biāo)。明確了勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)模型構(gòu)建的思路，確定了系統(tǒng)邊界和系統(tǒng)因果關(guān)系圖；對系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)變量進(jìn)行了說明，構(gòu)建經(jīng)濟(jì)、資源和環(huán)境三個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的SD模型，，運(yùn)用勝利油田的數(shù)據(jù)模擬了三個(gè)子系統(tǒng)。建立勝利油田系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，依據(jù)模型檢驗(yàn)的依據(jù)，從模擬的真實(shí)性和有效性來檢驗(yàn)所構(gòu)建的模型。使用Vensim（PLE）軟件，對勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行模擬，檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ湍M值與真實(shí)值的擬合度；其次，對模型進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)仿真試驗(yàn)，研究不同政策條件對系統(tǒng)行為產(chǎn)生的影響，預(yù)測出模型主要變量的發(fā)展趨勢，通過分析不同政策方案下的試驗(yàn)結(jié)果，為油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)決策提供了科學(xué)參考。 本文結(jié)合勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的實(shí)際，對勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用舉例。通過SD模型的構(gòu)建、檢驗(yàn)和模擬仿真，指出勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展存在的問題和難點(diǎn)。通過對系統(tǒng)行為動(dòng)態(tài)仿真試驗(yàn)，提出勝利油田生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的政策建議，為我國油田企業(yè)生態(tài)環(huán)境系統(tǒng)研究提供了一定的理論和實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:On the one hand, the exploitation activities of oil and gas resources of oil and gas enterprises provide the basic energy and material sources for industrial development, on the other hand, the exploration and development of oil and gas resources have a certain impact on the original natural ecological environment system. The balance between the oil field ecological environment system and the external ecosystem has been lost, the material and energy cycle process has been further accelerated, and the increasing ecological environmental problems are restricting the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the oil field ecological environment system. This paper first analyzes and studies the basic theory of the oil field enterprise ecological environment system and the basic principle and method of the system dynamics. On the premise of defining the principle and basis of constructing the evaluation index system of the oil field ecological environment system, the paper analyzes and studies the basic theory and the system dynamics of the oil field enterprise ecological environment system. The mechanism of ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield is analyzed, and the evaluation index system of ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield is established, which can be used as an alternative index for the construction and application of system dynamics model in the next step. The idea of constructing ecological environment system model in Shengli Oilfield is clarified, the system boundary and system causality diagram are determined, the related variables of the system are explained, and the SD model of three subsystems of economy, resources and environment is constructed. The data of Shengli Oilfield are used to simulate three subsystems. The system dynamics model of Shengli Oilfield is established. According to the basis of model test, the model is verified from the authenticity and validity of simulation. The simulation of ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield is carried out by using Vensimi ple software, and the fitting degree between the model simulation value and the real value is tested. Secondly, the dynamic simulation experiment is carried out to study the influence of different policy conditions on the system behavior. The development trend of the main variables of the model is predicted, and the experimental results under different policies and schemes are analyzed, which provides a scientific reference for the decision making of the oil field ecological environment system. Based on the development of the ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield, the system dynamics model of the ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield is applied in this paper. Through the construction, test and simulation of SD model, the problems and difficulties in the development of ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield are pointed out. Based on the dynamic simulation test of system behavior, the policy suggestions for the development of ecological environment system in Shengli Oilfield are put forward, which provide a certain theoretical and practical significance for the study of ecological environment system of oil field enterprises in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F426.22;X322;N941.3

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