本文選題：能源效率 + 數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：工業(yè)化和城市化帶來越來越多的能源短缺、環(huán)境污染等問題，2013年我國部分城市出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的霧霾污染天氣，其面積之廣，程度之惡劣，引起了全國人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式和環(huán)境保護(hù)的高度關(guān)注。未來氣候領(lǐng)域的核心依然是節(jié)能減排，資源稟賦和國際能源競爭格局決定了我國以煤電為主的能源結(jié)構(gòu)短時(shí)間內(nèi)是難以改變和突破的。如何提高能源利用效率，在現(xiàn)有技術(shù)條件下，顯得更為迫切與重要。 本文重在考察空間視角下的能源效率時(shí)空演變特征，并探討影響能源效率變動(dòng)的因素。研究思路如下：首先選取數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)方法測算全國29個(gè)省市、自治區(qū)的能源效率，并分析其在空間上的分布差異、重心軌跡和空間相關(guān)性。接著挖掘各省能源利用效率在空間上的溢出性，使用空間杜賓面板模型分析1990-2010年各省的面板數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用鄰接矩陣和地理距離矩陣從空間溢出角度探討能源效率的影響因素，同時(shí)分析這種溢出作用與距離、時(shí)間的關(guān)系。通過分析，論文的結(jié)論如下： （1）歷年來我國能源效率重心呈現(xiàn)出由“低經(jīng)度”向“高經(jīng)度”方向演變的趨勢，東、西差異比南、北差異更明顯，空間上呈現(xiàn)出由東部沿海向中西部遞減的格局。 （2）我國區(qū)域能源效率不是隨機(jī)分布的，而是存在正向的空間集聚性，并且這種空間集聚性隨時(shí)間推移在逐步增強(qiáng)。 （3）構(gòu)建鄰接矩陣和地理距離矩陣的空間面板模型，結(jié)果表明所選取的五個(gè)影響因素都存在著顯著的空間溢出影響。除了發(fā)達(dá)程度因素外，外商投資、開放程度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和政府影響四個(gè)因素的空間溢出影響都要大于直接影響。說明了空間溢出影響是造成能源利用差異的核心因素。 （4）能源效率空間溢出作用隨著距離增大而呈現(xiàn)雙平臺下降的變化趨勢，空間溢出效應(yīng)的最優(yōu)距離在280公里以內(nèi)，而在500公里以外溢出作用大幅減弱至零。 （5）發(fā)達(dá)程度，外商投資、開放程度和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的當(dāng)期溢出作用強(qiáng)度最大，并逐漸減弱。政府影響因素存在時(shí)滯性，影響系數(shù)最大值出現(xiàn)在滯后第三年。表明政策需要時(shí)間來吸收和消化，，從推行到產(chǎn)生作用需要三年左右的時(shí)間。
[Abstract]:Industrialization and urbanization bring more energy shortages, environmental pollution and other problems. In 2013, some cities in China had serious haze pollution weather, its area is wide and its degree is bad. Has aroused the national people to the economic development pattern and the environmental protection high attention. Energy conservation and emission reduction are still the core of climate field in the future. Resource endowment and international energy competition pattern determine that the energy structure dominated by coal and electricity is difficult to change and break through in a short period of time. How to improve the efficiency of energy use is more urgent and important under the existing technical conditions. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal evolution of energy efficiency from the perspective of space, and discusses the factors that affect the change of energy efficiency. The research ideas are as follows: firstly, the energy efficiency of 29 provinces and autonomous regions is calculated by using data envelopment method, and the spatial distribution difference, center of gravity trajectory and spatial correlation are analyzed. Secondly, the spatial spillover of energy efficiency in various provinces is excavated. The spatial Doberbin panel model is used to analyze the panel data of provinces from 1990 to 2010, and the influence factors of energy efficiency are discussed from the perspective of spatial spillover using adjacency matrix and geographical distance matrix. At the same time, the relationship between the spillover effect and distance and time is analyzed. Through analysis, the conclusion of the paper is as follows: 1) the energy efficiency center of gravity in China has evolved from "low longitude" to "high longitude" over the years. The differences between east and west are more obvious than those in south and north, and the spatial pattern is decreasing from eastern coast to central and western regions. 2) Regional energy efficiency in China is not randomly distributed, but positive spatial agglomeration exists, and this spatial agglomeration increases gradually with time. 3) the spatial panel models of adjacent matrix and geographical distance matrix are constructed. The results show that the five factors selected have significant spatial spillover effects. In addition to the factors of degree of development, the spatial spillover effects of foreign investment, openness, industrial structure and government influence are all greater than that of direct influence. The spatial spillover effect is the core factor of energy utilization difference. 4) the spatial spillover effect of energy efficiency decreases with the increase of distance. The optimal distance of spatial spillover effect is less than 280 km, but the spillover effect decreases to zero at 500 km. 5) the degree of development, the degree of foreign investment, the degree of opening and the industrial structure of the current spillover effect intensity is the largest, and gradually weakened. The influence factors of government have time delay, and the maximum of influence coefficient appears in the third year of lag. It shows that policy takes time to absorb and digest, and it takes about three years from implementation to effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.2;F206

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