本文選題：非常規(guī)油氣資源 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)　； 參考：《中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：在世界能源結(jié)構(gòu)中，常規(guī)能源的地位不容置疑，同時(shí)又因其稀缺性和不可再生性，在未來(lái)面臨能源緊張的時(shí)代，全球能源資源正在迅速進(jìn)行重新分配，非常規(guī)油氣資源的勘探開(kāi)發(fā)已成為世界能源發(fā)展的必然戰(zhàn)略選擇。在我國(guó)，對(duì)油氣資源開(kāi)發(fā)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)和決策分析時(shí)，大多采用傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法，但是由于非常規(guī)油氣資源獨(dú)特的形成、富集與分布規(guī)律，其所處的地質(zhì)條件、自然條件以及技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件與常規(guī)油氣資源的不同，其經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值也不同，對(duì)油氣資源評(píng)價(jià)不能從經(jīng)濟(jì)角度進(jìn)行優(yōu)選，將無(wú)疑會(huì)給具有科學(xué)根據(jù)的地質(zhì)普查、勘探工作計(jì)劃的編制和含油氣區(qū)開(kāi)發(fā)可行性論證造成困難。因此，如果在非常規(guī)油氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)和可行性分析過(guò)程中，使用傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法，從而會(huì)導(dǎo)致計(jì)算結(jié)果不能反映項(xiàng)目的真實(shí)價(jià)值。 本文首先對(duì)非常規(guī)油氣資源進(jìn)行概述，針對(duì)非常規(guī)油氣資源在我國(guó)存在點(diǎn)多、面廣、開(kāi)采難度大、勘探開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性較高的特點(diǎn)，對(duì)常規(guī)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法和實(shí)物期權(quán)進(jìn)行對(duì)比，在充分認(rèn)識(shí)到傳統(tǒng)方法的缺陷后，從而構(gòu)建基于實(shí)物期權(quán)的非常規(guī)油氣資源開(kāi)發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法，提出針對(duì)非常規(guī)油氣開(kāi)發(fā)具有的實(shí)物期權(quán)特性，，非常規(guī)油氣資源開(kāi)發(fā)的投資價(jià)值包括兩部分：其一是不考慮實(shí)物期權(quán)的存在，可以用凈現(xiàn)值法求得投資項(xiàng)目固有的內(nèi)在價(jià)值；其二是由項(xiàng)目的期權(quán)特性產(chǎn)生的期權(quán)價(jià)值。同時(shí)，對(duì)非常規(guī)油氣資源中具有代表性的煤層氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行期權(quán)價(jià)值分析。最后，通過(guò)西部某礦區(qū)煤層氣開(kāi)發(fā)利用示范項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分析，考慮煤層氣開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的期權(quán)價(jià)值，驗(yàn)證了以實(shí)物期權(quán)為基礎(chǔ)的非常規(guī)油氣資源經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法的適用性。
[Abstract]:In the world energy structure, the status of conventional energy is indisputable. At the same time, because of its scarcity and non-renewable, the global energy resources are being redistributed rapidly in the future energy era. The exploration and development of unconventional oil and gas resources has become an inevitable strategic choice for the development of energy in the world. In China, traditional economic evaluation methods are used in economic evaluation and decision analysis of oil and gas resources development, but due to the unique formation, enrichment and distribution of unconventional oil and gas resources, they are located in geological conditions. Natural conditions and technical and economic conditions are different from conventional oil and gas resources, and their economic values are also different. The evaluation of oil and gas resources cannot be selected from an economic point of view, which will undoubtedly give a scientific geological survey. It is difficult to draw up the plan of exploration work and prove the feasibility of exploitation in oil and gas bearing area. Therefore, if the traditional economic evaluation method is used in the process of economic evaluation and feasibility analysis of unconventional oil and gas development projects, the calculation results will not reflect the true value of the project. This paper first summarizes the unconventional oil and gas resources, aiming at the characteristics of the unconventional oil and gas resources in our country, such as many points, wide scope, high difficulty of exploitation, high risk of exploration and development and high uncertainty. By comparing the conventional economic evaluation method with the real option method and fully recognizing the defects of the traditional method, the economic evaluation method of unconventional oil and gas resources development based on real option is constructed. According to the real option characteristics of unconventional oil and gas development, the investment value of unconventional oil and gas resources development includes two parts: one is that the intrinsic value of investment project can be obtained by net present value method without considering the existence of real option; The second is the option value generated by the option characteristics of the project. At the same time, the option value of coal bed methane (CBM) which is representative of unconventional oil and gas resources is analyzed. Finally, through the analysis of the demonstration project of coalbed methane development and utilization in a mining area in the west of China, considering the option value of the coal-bed methane development project, the applicability of the unconventional economic evaluation method of oil and gas resources based on real options is verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.22

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