本文選題：科研項(xiàng)目 + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：煤機(jī)制造行業(yè)科研項(xiàng)目向來(lái)是此行業(yè)中技術(shù)水平高度的體現(xiàn),對(duì)整個(gè)行業(yè)的發(fā)展方向有著重要的影響。因其主要面向煤礦等復(fù)雜惡劣性環(huán)境,此行業(yè)的科研項(xiàng)目往往要求更高更具體。因此,煤機(jī)制造行業(yè)科研項(xiàng)目引入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理念,增加風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估環(huán)節(jié),為整個(gè)項(xiàng)目提供管理的依據(jù),為決策者提供方案改進(jìn)的措施和方向,對(duì)煤機(jī)制造行業(yè)科研項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施具有極為重要的意義。本文對(duì)煤機(jī)制造行業(yè)科研項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行具體分析,將項(xiàng)目進(jìn)程中的重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因子進(jìn)行分類(lèi)識(shí)別。綜合對(duì)比各種定性和定量的分析方法,最終選擇將層次分析法和影響圖法相結(jié)合,建立適用于煤機(jī)制造行業(yè)的全過(guò)程的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。針對(duì)高強(qiáng)度大功率短壁電牽引采煤機(jī)項(xiàng)目的具體案例,采用層次分析法進(jìn)行了方案決策；采用影響圖法推算項(xiàng)目各級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)點(diǎn)的條件概率,計(jì)算重要結(jié)點(diǎn)對(duì)目標(biāo)結(jié)點(diǎn)的條件概率,最終確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的主要方向。為項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理者制定相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略和規(guī)避措施提供了理論參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The scientific research project of coal machine manufacturing industry has always been the embodiment of the high level of technology in this industry and has an important influence on the development direction of the whole industry. Because of its complex environment, such as coal mines, the industry's scientific research projects often require higher and more specific. Therefore, scientific research projects in coal machinery manufacturing industry introduce risk management concept, increase risk assessment links, provide management basis for the whole project, and provide policy makers with measures and directions to improve their plans. It is of great significance for the smooth implementation of scientific research projects in coal machine manufacturing industry. In this paper, the risk factors of scientific research projects in coal machine manufacturing industry are analyzed in detail, and the important risk factors in the process of the projects are classified and identified. After comprehensive comparison of various qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, a project risk assessment model suitable for the whole process of coal machine manufacturing industry is established by combining AHP with impact diagram method. In view of the specific case of high strength and high power short wall electric haulage shearer project, AHP method is used to make scheme decision, and influence chart method is used to calculate the conditional probability of risk nodes at all levels of the project. The conditional probability of the important node to the target node is calculated, and the main direction of risk management is finally determined. It provides a theoretical reference for project risk managers to formulate corresponding risk coping strategies and evading measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F273.1;F426.4

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本文編號(hào)：1848082