本文選題：碳排放 + 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度��； 參考：《江南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球氣候變暖問題，目前正從一個環(huán)境問題演變成涉及全球政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、貿(mào)易等復(fù)雜議題，各國對此都高度關(guān)注。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)，即中國必須由傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式向低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式轉(zhuǎn)變。長江三角洲是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)實力最強的區(qū)域，無錫市地處長江三角洲的中心地帶，是一個典型工業(yè)城市，工業(yè)增加值在全國所有城市中居第6位。對無錫市工業(yè)碳排放強度的變化及其動因進(jìn)行分析，對促進(jìn)無錫經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展具有重要意義，對其他工業(yè)城市低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也有借鑒意義。 本文從不同層面系統(tǒng)的分析了無錫市工業(yè)碳排放。首先，運用脫鉤模型分析了無錫市工業(yè)碳排放與工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的脫鉤關(guān)系，結(jié)果顯示，1994-1997年為脫鉤狀態(tài)，以弱脫鉤為主；1998-2004年為負(fù)脫鉤和聯(lián)結(jié)狀態(tài)，以增長聯(lián)結(jié)為主；2005-2010年為脫鉤狀態(tài)，以弱脫鉤為主，脫鉤指數(shù)處于穩(wěn)定下降趨勢，符合低碳工業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢。其次，應(yīng)用回歸分析模型，分析了影響無錫工業(yè)碳排放的主要因素，結(jié)果表明人均工業(yè)增加值是工業(yè)碳排放的主要促進(jìn)因素，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)系數(shù)和能源效率是工業(yè)碳排放的主要抑制因素，工業(yè)利用外資對無錫工業(yè)碳排放增長也具有較大貢獻(xiàn)。再次，運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型對工業(yè)各行業(yè)碳排放量與工業(yè)增加值的關(guān)聯(lián)度進(jìn)行分析，并對工業(yè)各行業(yè)進(jìn)行分類。結(jié)果表明，電力、熱力的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)、黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)、化學(xué)原料及化學(xué)制品制造業(yè)、非金屬礦物制品業(yè)、紡織服裝、鞋、帽制造業(yè)、通用設(shè)備制造業(yè)、電氣機械及器材制造業(yè)等7個行業(yè)屬于高排放高關(guān)聯(lián)行業(yè)，其碳排放量占工業(yè)碳排放總量的89.994%，而且與工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長密切相關(guān)，保持同步增長趨勢。最后，采用改進(jìn)的差值因素分解法，從效率效應(yīng)、結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)兩個方面分析工業(yè)碳排放強度變化的內(nèi)在動因。結(jié)果顯示，在1999-2010年無錫市工業(yè)碳排放強度的變化量中，結(jié)構(gòu)貢獻(xiàn)率為42.84%，效率貢獻(xiàn)率為57.16%；1999-2005年結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)是碳排放強度下降的主要原因，貢獻(xiàn)率為76.23%；2005-2010年效率效應(yīng)是碳排放強度下降的主要驅(qū)動因素，，貢獻(xiàn)率為81.73%。 然后，運用灰色預(yù)測模型對無錫市工業(yè)碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測，顯示無錫市未來五年工業(yè)碳排放量將繼續(xù)緩慢增長，平均年增長率為2.8%，但由于基數(shù)龐大，工業(yè)碳排放增加的絕對量仍然很大，減排任務(wù)艱巨。最后，提出無錫市減少工業(yè)碳排放的對策措施，即加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、加強工業(yè)低碳技術(shù)研發(fā)、提高能源效率、積極利用清潔能源等。
[Abstract]:The problem of global warming is now evolving from an environmental problem into a complex issue involving global politics, economy and trade. All countries are paying great attention to this. China's economy is facing unprecedented challenges, that is, China must change from the traditional economic development model to the low carbon economy development model. The Yangtze River delta is our economic strength. The strongest area, Wuxi is located in the center of the Yangtze River Delta, is a typical industrial city, and the industrial added value is sixth in all cities in the country. The analysis of the changes in the intensity of industrial carbon emission and its motivation in Wuxi is of great significance to the economic transformation and development of Wuxi and the development of low carbon economy in other industrial cities. It also has reference significance.
In this paper, the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi is analyzed from different levels. First, the decoupling model is used to analyze the decoupling relationship between industrial carbon emission and industrial economy in Wuxi. The results show that the 1994-1997 year is a decoupling state and a weak decoupling. The 1998-2004 year is negative decoupling and joint state, mainly with growth connection, and 2005-2010 years is taken off. The hook state is based on the weak decoupling. The decoupling index is in a steady decline trend and is in line with the trend of low carbon industry development. Secondly, the main factors affecting the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi are analyzed by the regression analysis model. The result shows that the per capita industrial added value is the main promoting factor of the industrial carbon emission, and the industrial structure coefficient and energy efficiency are industrial carbon. The main restraining factor of the emission, the industrial utilization of foreign capital has a great contribution to the growth of industrial carbon emissions in Wuxi. Thirdly, the grey correlation degree model is used to analyze the correlation between the carbon emissions and the industrial added value of industrial industries, and the industrial industries are classified. The results show that the power, the thermal production and supply industry, the black metal Smelting and calendering processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products industry, textile clothing, shoes, cap manufacturing, general equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing are 7 industries with high emission and high related industries. Their carbon emissions account for 89.994% of the total amount of industrial carbon emissions and are closely related to industrial economic growth. At last, the internal motivation of the change of industrial carbon emission intensity was analyzed by the improved difference factor decomposition method from two aspects of efficiency effect and structure effect. The results showed that in the 1999-2010 year Wuxi industrial carbon emission intensity changes, the structure contribution rate was 42.84%, the efficiency contribution rate was 57.16%; 1999-2005 The annual structure effect is the main reason for the decrease of carbon emission intensity, and the contribution rate is 76.23%. The 2005-2010 year efficiency effect is the main driving factor of the decrease of carbon emission intensity, and the contribution rate is 81.73%..
Then, the grey prediction model is used to predict the industrial carbon emissions in Wuxi, which shows that the industrial carbon emissions will continue to grow slowly in the next five years, and the average annual growth rate is 2.8%. However, because of the huge base number, the absolute amount of industrial carbon emissions is still very large and the task of reducing the emission is arduous. Finally, it is proposed to reduce the industrial carbon emissions in Wuxi. The countermeasures are to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, strengthen the research and development of low carbon technology, improve energy efficiency, and actively use clean energy.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F424.1

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