本文選題：制造業(yè) + 效率�。� 參考：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：金融危機(jī)對(duì)我國(guó)金融體系產(chǎn)生巨大沖擊,同時(shí)也給我國(guó)制造業(yè)造成了深刻的影響。這讓歐美國(guó)家認(rèn)識(shí)到“去工業(yè)化”的危害,轉(zhuǎn)而提出“重回制造業(yè)時(shí)代”的戰(zhàn)略。“四萬億”投資計(jì)劃對(duì)我國(guó)的上游制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生了直接的刺激作用,尤其是鋼鐵、建材等行業(yè),同時(shí)也造成了投資過度的問題。近年來,出口受阻、用工荒、成本上升等不利因素也困擾著我國(guó)的制造業(yè)。由于我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不平衡,制造業(yè)產(chǎn)出存在較大的地區(qū)和省際差異。 在研究總結(jié)效率理論與模型的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)DEA方法的局限性和我國(guó)各省制造業(yè)所處的不同環(huán)境,本文選取三階段DEA模型估計(jì)我國(guó)省際制造業(yè)效率。通過二階段Tobit模型排除環(huán)境變量和隨機(jī)誤差項(xiàng)的影響,得出比較準(zhǔn)確的效率輸出結(jié)果。選用金融危機(jī)以后即2008年—2011年30個(gè)省市的制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),選用制造業(yè)總產(chǎn)值、利潤(rùn)總額作為產(chǎn)出指標(biāo),制造業(yè)從業(yè)人數(shù)、制造業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)折舊作為投入指標(biāo),選用GDP、出口、創(chuàng)新、工資作為環(huán)境變量。 實(shí)證研究表明：我國(guó)多個(gè)省市的制造業(yè)資本投入差額值較大,勞動(dòng)投入沒有差額值,說明我國(guó)存在明顯的投資過多問題,也證實(shí)了用工荒的存在。GDP與投入差額值存在正向關(guān)系,說明經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)達(dá)的省市投入過多的問題就越顯著；創(chuàng)新、出口與投入差額值成負(fù)向關(guān)系,說明這兩項(xiàng)對(duì)制造業(yè)效率有促進(jìn)作用；工資與投入差額值成負(fù)向關(guān)系,說明工資提高帶來成本上升的負(fù)面作用弱于對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的正面作用,工資提高有利于促進(jìn)制造業(yè)效率的進(jìn)步。環(huán)境因素的存在使一階段DEA效率值低于三階段效率值。東部地區(qū)效率低于中西部地區(qū),在生產(chǎn)過程中產(chǎn)生的投入差額值過多,產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移是提高我國(guó)制造業(yè)效率的有效途徑。我國(guó)大多省市的制造業(yè)處于規(guī)模報(bào)酬遞減階段,急需產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)來改變現(xiàn)有的產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis has a great impact on our financial system, but also has a profound impact on our manufacturing industry. This made the European and American countries realize the harm of deindustrialization and put forward the strategy of returning to the manufacturing era. The "4 trillion" investment plan has a direct stimulating effect on the upstream manufacturing industry in China, especially in the steel, building materials and other industries, and has also caused the problem of excessive investment. In recent years, export is blocked, labor shortage, rising cost and other unfavorable factors haunt our manufacturing industry. Due to the imbalance of regional economic development in China, there are large regional and provincial differences in manufacturing output. Based on the study of efficiency theory and model, according to the limitation of DEA method and the different environments of manufacturing industry in various provinces of China, this paper selects the three-stage DEA model to estimate the efficiency of inter-provincial manufacturing industry in China. By eliminating the influence of environmental variables and random error terms, the two-stage Tobit model is used to obtain more accurate efficiency output results. Choose the manufacturing data of 30 provinces and cities after the financial crisis from 2008 to 2011, select the gross output value of manufacturing industry, total profit as the output index, the number of manufacturing workers, fixed asset depreciation of manufacturing industry as input index, choose GDP, export, etc. Innovation, wages as environmental variables. The empirical study shows that the difference value of manufacturing capital input in many provinces and cities in China is large, but the labor input is not, which indicates that there is an obvious problem of excessive investment in our country, and it also confirms the existence of labor shortage and the positive relationship between GDP and the difference value of input. It shows that the more developed provinces and cities have more investment, the more significant the problem is; the more innovation, the negative relationship between the value of export and the difference of input, which shows that these two items have a positive effect on the efficiency of manufacturing; and the negative relationship between wages and the difference of input. It is shown that the negative effect of higher wages is weaker than the positive effect on technological innovation, and wage increase is beneficial to the progress of manufacturing efficiency. The DEA efficiency of one stage is lower than that of three stages because of the existence of environmental factors. The efficiency of the eastern region is lower than that of the central and western regions, and the difference value of the input produced in the production process is too much. Industrial transfer is an effective way to improve the efficiency of China's manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry in most provinces and cities of our country is in the stage of diminishing returns on scale, so it is urgent to upgrade the industrial structure to change the existing output structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F424

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