本文選題：水能資源開發(fā) + 項目投資　； 參考：《清華大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：貴州北源電力股份有限公司成立十年，前后投資11億多元進行貴州芙蓉江流域水能資源開發(fā)，公司計劃通過流域滾動開發(fā)的方式，將已建電站的發(fā)電收益用于后續(xù)項目開發(fā)，用十年時間逐步開發(fā)建成貴州芙蓉江流域規(guī)劃中的六個梯級水電站，共計裝機規(guī)模23.5萬kW。然而，從公司第一個項目投產(chǎn)至今，所建成水電站一直連續(xù)虧損運行，從2005年魚塘水電站投產(chǎn)至2012年底，貴州北源電力股份有限公司已累計虧損1.6億元，公司面臨極大的生存壓力。論文通過對已建和在建項目的經(jīng)濟指標的變化進行研究，得出了以下三個方面的結論：一是采用對比分析的方法，依據(jù)對建成項目的實際費用組成與項目核準概算數(shù)據(jù)間的對比分析，分別對照了項目總投資、建筑工程投資、移民工程投資等具體指標的絕對值變化和相對值變化，得出了“建設成本大幅增加是造成項目建成后實際經(jīng)營效果無法達到預期的主要因素”的結論；二是依據(jù)收集到的魚塘、清溪兩個已經(jīng)投產(chǎn)多年的水電站多年實際平均發(fā)電量與設計多年平均發(fā)電量的差異，計算實際的經(jīng)營收入與設計預期之間的差距，得出了“已建成水電站發(fā)電能力無法達到設計預期是影響投產(chǎn)電站經(jīng)營效益的重要原因”的結論；三是通過分析已投產(chǎn)項目的實際運行成本，進一步得到了“運行成本的增加也是造成項目經(jīng)營困境的原因之一”的結論。 針對上述結論，，論文提出了應該從以下五個方面采取措施：一是建設單位要重視項目決策過程中的設計審查和優(yōu)化工作，確保設計概算能夠真實的反映項目投資成本，為投資決策提供可靠依據(jù)，從源頭上防止項目投資失控；二是地方政府的優(yōu)惠承諾的落實是降低項目建設成本和運營成本的重要保證，投資人必須在項目落地前采取書面甚至法律的方式得到相關方面的認可和明確，避免項目一旦開工承諾多數(shù)淪為一紙空文的情況出現(xiàn)；三是利用行業(yè)協(xié)會等組織，積極爭取國家對可再生能源的扶持政策得到真正落實，為中小水電項目爭取到合理的上網(wǎng)電價，從而使得建成電站的營業(yè)收入得到合理穩(wěn)定的增長；四是利用信息技術的發(fā)展，發(fā)揮水電站的資源優(yōu)勢，切實降低建成項目的管理成本；五是要結合水電項目生命周期長、運行穩(wěn)定的特點，正確分析和評價項目的經(jīng)濟指標，在項目經(jīng)濟評價過程中引入動態(tài)評價參數(shù)，避免因短期效益達不到經(jīng)濟評價要求而錯失項目開發(fā)機遇。
[Abstract]:Guizhou Beyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. was established for ten years, and invested more than 1.1 billion yuan in the exploitation of hydropower resources in the Furong River basin in Guizhou. The company plans to use the power generation income of the established power station for the subsequent project development through the rolling development of the river basin. Six cascaded hydropower stations in the planning of the Furong River Basin in Guizhou Province have been gradually developed and built in ten years, with a total installed capacity of 235000 kW. However, since the company's first project was put into operation, the built hydropower station has been running at a continuous loss. From the year 2005 to the end of 2012, Guizhou Beiyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. has made a cumulative loss of 160 million yuan. The company is under great pressure to survive. Based on the research on the change of economic indicators of the existing projects under construction, the paper draws the following three conclusions: first, the method of comparative analysis is adopted. Based on the comparative analysis of the actual cost composition of the completed project and the data of the project approval estimate, the absolute and relative value changes of the total project investment, the construction project investment and the resettlement project investment are compared respectively. It is concluded that "the substantial increase in construction cost is the main factor that causes the actual operating effect of the project to fail to achieve the expected results after the completion of the project"; the second is based on the fish ponds collected. The difference between the actual average power generation of two hydropower stations in Qingxi, which has been put into operation for many years, and the average power generation in the design years, and the difference between the actual operating income and the design expectation, It is concluded that the failure of power generation capacity of completed hydropower stations to meet the design expectations is an important reason for affecting the operational benefits of the power stations put into operation. The third is to analyze the actual operating costs of the projects that have been put into operation. The conclusion that the increase of running cost is also one of the causes of the project management dilemma is further obtained. In view of the above conclusions, the paper puts forward the following five measures: first, the construction unit should pay attention to the design review and optimization work in the decision-making process of the project to ensure that the design budget estimates can truly reflect the project investment cost. To provide a reliable basis for investment decisions and to prevent project investment from getting out of control at the source; second, the implementation of preferential commitments made by local governments is an important guarantee to reduce project construction costs and operational costs. Investors must adopt written or even legal means to obtain the approval and clarification of relevant parties before the project falls to the ground, so as to avoid the situation that most of the commitments to start the project will be reduced to a dead letter; third, they should make use of organizations such as trade associations. Actively strive for the implementation of the state's support policy for renewable energy, and strive for a reasonable electricity price for small and medium hydropower projects, thus making the operating income of the completed power station reasonably and steadily increase; fourth, the use of information technology for the development of the project. Give full play to the resource advantages of hydropower stations, and effectively reduce the management costs of completed projects. Fifth, we should correctly analyze and evaluate the economic indicators of hydropower projects in the light of the characteristics of their long life cycle and stable operation. Dynamic evaluation parameters are introduced in the process of project economic evaluation to avoid missing the opportunity of project development because short-term benefits can not meet the requirements of economic evaluation.
【學位授予單位】：清華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61;F426.91

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