海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目集成風(fēng)險管理研究
本文選題:風(fēng)險管理 + 集成化。 參考:《中國石油大學(xué)(華東)》2013年碩士論文
【摘要】:自20世紀(jì)80年代以來,我國的國際石油經(jīng)濟合作經(jīng)歷了長足發(fā)展,原油進(jìn)口量逐年增加。近三年來,我國大型石油企業(yè)油氣合作對象國的范圍從傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)油國逐步擴大到一些發(fā)達(dá)國家,海外油氣產(chǎn)量實現(xiàn)跨越式增長。而海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目與國內(nèi)類似項目相比,具有風(fēng)險高、不確定因素多、投資回收期長等特點,因此,從系統(tǒng)論和全面風(fēng)險管理理論對海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目進(jìn)行集成風(fēng)險管理研究是非常有必要的。 論文首先闡述海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險管理的特點,基于國內(nèi)外工程項目風(fēng)險識別研究的已有成果,系統(tǒng)分析并歸納海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目實施過程中的主要風(fēng)險因素,同時對風(fēng)險因素與項目組織、管理目標(biāo)、管理流程之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行闡述,在此基礎(chǔ)上,深入分析海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目集成風(fēng)險管理的四個維度。其次,基于霍爾三維結(jié)構(gòu)的系統(tǒng)工程方法論,將系統(tǒng)化、集成化的理念應(yīng)用于海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目的風(fēng)險管理活動中,嘗試建立項目集成風(fēng)險管理的結(jié)構(gòu)框架,并以此為指導(dǎo)思想,完成集成風(fēng)險管理多維體系的構(gòu)建——時間維、組織維、邏輯維、知識維建立的多維項目集成風(fēng)險管理體系(TCLK體系),其中時間維是集成風(fēng)險管理的主線,知識維是風(fēng)險管理的手段或方法,組織維與邏輯維是風(fēng)險管理的主要內(nèi)容,然后結(jié)合海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目的具體特點,,深入剖析TCLK體系中的四個維度。最后,以案例分析的形式對論文中提出的海外油氣勘探開發(fā)項目集成風(fēng)險管理理論與方法進(jìn)行論證。 集成風(fēng)險管理已然成為工程項目風(fēng)險管理的發(fā)展趨勢,通過構(gòu)建多維項目集成風(fēng)險管理體系——TCLK體系,在實證分析和誤差允許的條件下,能夠有效地降低因風(fēng)險因素造成的項目損失。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, the international petroleum economic cooperation in China has undergone considerable development, crude oil imports increased year by year. Over the past three years, China's large oil enterprises of oil and gas cooperation target range from the traditional oil producing countries gradually expand to some developed countries, overseas oil and gas production to achieve leapfrog growth. While the overseas oil and gas exploration and development the project compared with the domestic similar projects, with high risk, many uncertain factors, characteristics, long payback period and therefore, from the system theory and the comprehensive risk management theory of integrated risk management of projects of overseas oil and gas exploration and development is very necessary.
This paper first describes the characteristics of overseas oil and gas exploration and development project risk management, the research achievements of domestic and foreign engineering project risk identification based on system analysis and the main risks summarized overseas oil and gas exploration and development in the process of project implementation and the factors, risk factors and project organization, management objectives, elaborates the relationship management between processes, this on the basis of in-depth analysis of the four dimensions of overseas oil and gas exploration and development project integrated risk management. Secondly, the system engineering method based on the three-dimensional structure of Holzer theory, the concept of integrated system, applied to the project of overseas oil and gas exploration and development of the risk management activities, try to establish a framework for construction project risk management, and take this as the guiding ideology, to complete the construction of integrated risk management system -- multidimensional time dimension, organization dimension and logic dimension, multi dimension knowledge dimension established integrated wind project The risk management system (TCLK system), the time dimension is the main line of integrated risk management, knowledge dimension is the means or methods of risk management, organization dimension and logic dimension is the main content of risk management, and then combined with the specific characteristics of projects of overseas oil and gas exploration and development, in-depth analysis of the four dimensions of the TCLK system. Finally, in the form of case analysis of the overseas oil and gas exploration and development project integrated risk management theory and method.
Integrated risk management has become the trend of project risk management. By constructing multi-dimensional project integrated risk management system -- TCLK system, under the condition of empirical analysis and error tolerance, it can effectively reduce project losses caused by risk factors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:中國石油大學(xué)(華東)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F426.22;F272.3
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