本文選題：煙草企業(yè)　切入點：卷煙銷售　出處：《中南大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：摘要：近年來,隨著中國加入世貿(mào)后,卷煙市場為了應對市場開放,在煙草行業(yè)全面推廣和深度推進“按客戶訂單組織貨源”工作,如何準確預測市場需求、為整個煙草行業(yè)的經(jīng)營提供真實有效的參考和基礎,在這一時期顯得甚為重要。因此,卷煙銷量預測在煙草行業(yè)內(nèi)得到了高度關(guān)注并進行了廣泛地實踐。準確預測市場需求,不僅有利于企業(yè)決策者把握市場走向,同時也會對企業(yè)的良性運作起到積極的作用。 本文對C市煙草分公司目前需求預測機制的實際情況進行了研究,針對影響銷量的因素進行分析總結(jié),提出將這些影響因素加入到多種銷量預測模型中,應用SQL Server2010軟件設計了相應的數(shù)據(jù)庫,通過Eviews工具等對樣本數(shù)據(jù)進行預測、分析,編制相應的程序?qū)市的卷煙銷量進行預測計算。 對預測結(jié)果的分析表明,這種銷量預測方式重視分析銷量數(shù)據(jù)以及影響銷量的因素,在C市年度、月度銷量及卷煙結(jié)構(gòu)銷量方面計算得到了較好的結(jié)果,對預測C市煙草分公司的銷量工作起到了積極的推動作用。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in recent years, with China's accession to the WTO, the cigarette market, in order to cope with the opening up of the market, comprehensively popularizes and deepens the work of "organizing supplies according to customer orders" in the tobacco industry, and how to accurately predict the market demand. It is very important to provide the real and effective reference and foundation for the management of the whole tobacco industry during this period. Therefore, the forecast of cigarette sales has been highly concerned and widely practiced in the tobacco industry. It not only helps the decision makers to grasp the market trend, but also plays a positive role in the benign operation of enterprises. In this paper, the actual situation of current demand forecasting mechanism in C City Tobacco Branch is studied, and the factors affecting sales volume are analyzed and summarized. The corresponding database was designed by using SQL Server2010 software, and the sample data was predicted by Eviews tools. The corresponding program was compiled to predict and calculate the cigarette sales volume in C city. The analysis of the forecast results shows that this method attaches importance to the analysis of the sales data and the factors that affect the sales volume. In C city, the monthly sales volume and the cigarette structure sales are calculated with good results. It plays a positive role in predicting the sales of C City Tobacco Branch.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F426.8;F768

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