本文選題：吉林省　切入點：能源供給　出處：《東北師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：能源是人類社會進(jìn)步和發(fā)展的重要物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)，是實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要生產(chǎn)要素。在21世紀(jì)，能源不僅成為全球性、戰(zhàn)略性的問題，對于國家基本經(jīng)濟(jì)單元——省（區(qū)）而言，也是關(guān)系其發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵性、基礎(chǔ)性問題。吉林省是我國重要的老工業(yè)基地之一，東北振興戰(zhàn)略開始實施以來，吉林省工業(yè)化、城市化得到快速發(fā)展，能源需求量也呈急劇上升趨勢。而吉林省屬于一次能源嚴(yán)重短缺的省份，，能源自給率不足50%，能源對外依存度逐年上升。面對吉林省能源供需矛盾日益尖銳、能源浪費嚴(yán)重、能源利用效率低等諸多問題，如何協(xié)調(diào)能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會、環(huán)境之間的關(guān)系，尋求以最少的能源消耗并不犧牲環(huán)境為代價而取得吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)更快更好地發(fā)展和進(jìn)步，是吉林省急需解決的重要問題。 本文根據(jù)研究需要，緊扣吉林省區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和能源供需的關(guān)系，運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型、定量與定性分析相結(jié)合的方法科學(xué)地對吉林省能源需求和供給進(jìn)行了預(yù)測及分析。最后根據(jù)對未來吉林省能源供需態(tài)勢及影響能源供需因素的掌握，本文對吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源可持續(xù)發(fā)展提出了切實可行的能源發(fā)展建議。 本文研究成果主要有以下四方面： 一、對能源與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的研究、分析和總結(jié)，將能源研究深入到省區(qū)級能源與經(jīng)濟(jì)的研究，增加了能源研究的深度與廣度，對于把握區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源、環(huán)境之間協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要理論意義。 二、通過對吉林省能源生產(chǎn)能力、區(qū)外調(diào)運條件以及新能源開發(fā)狀況的定性與定量分析，預(yù)測吉林省未來能源供應(yīng)潛力，對防止吉林省在能源開發(fā)利用、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度方面的盲目性，并制定切合實際的符合吉林省區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 三、建立了吉林省能源需求預(yù)測模型。通過對影響能源需求的各種變量的選擇和分析，確定了由經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、能源消耗強度、二氧化碳排放量等變量組合而成的吉林省能源需求系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型，通過模型預(yù)測了吉林省未來能源消費狀況。不僅為制定吉林省能源發(fā)展政策提供可靠依據(jù)，而且也豐富了我國能源需求預(yù)測模型的內(nèi)容。 四、根據(jù)預(yù)測結(jié)果，對吉林省未來20年能源發(fā)展提出了對策及建議。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation for the progress and development of human society and an important factor of production for achieving economic growth. In 21th century, energy not only became a global and strategic issue, but also a basic economic unit of a country, a province. Jilin Province is one of the important old industrial bases in China. Since the implementation of the northeast revitalization strategy, the industrialization and urbanization of Jilin Province have developed rapidly. The energy demand also shows a sharp upward trend. Jilin Province is a province with a serious shortage of primary energy, with an energy self-sufficiency rate of less than 50% and a rising degree of energy dependence year by year. In the face of the increasingly acute contradiction between supply and demand of energy in Jilin Province, energy waste is serious. How to coordinate the relationship among energy, economy, society and environment, and seek to achieve faster and better economic development and progress in Jilin Province at the expense of the environment without sacrificing the environment? Is the Jilin Province urgent need to solve the important problem. According to the needs of the research, this paper applies the system dynamics model to the relationship between regional economic development and energy supply and demand in Jilin Province. The method of combining quantitative and qualitative analysis has scientifically predicted and analyzed the energy demand and supply in Jilin Province. Finally, according to the situation of energy supply and demand in Jilin Province in the future and the factors affecting energy supply and demand, this paper makes an analysis on the economy of Jilin Province. The sustainable development of energy resources has put forward feasible suggestions for energy development. The research results of this paper are as follows:. First, the relationship between energy and regional economic development has been systematically studied, analyzed and summarized, energy research has been deepened into the research of energy and economy at the provincial and district levels, and the depth and breadth of energy research have been increased, so as to grasp the regional economy and energy. Coordination between the environment, sustainable development has important theoretical significance. Second, through qualitative and quantitative analysis of Jilin Province's energy production capacity, the conditions for transferring and transporting outside the region, and the situation of new energy development, the potential of future energy supply in Jilin Province is predicted, so as to prevent Jilin Province from developing and utilizing energy resources. The blindness of the economic growth rate and the establishment of a practical energy development strategy in accordance with the regional economic development of Jilin Province provide scientific basis. Thirdly, the prediction model of energy demand in Jilin Province is established. Through the selection and analysis of various variables affecting energy demand, the speed of economic development, the industrial structure, and the intensity of energy consumption are determined. The system dynamics model of energy demand in Jilin Province, which is composed of carbon dioxide emissions and other variables, is used to predict the future energy consumption of Jilin Province, which not only provides a reliable basis for formulating the energy development policy of Jilin Province. It also enriches the content of energy demand prediction model in China. Fourth, according to the forecast results, the countermeasures and suggestions for the energy development of Jilin Province in the next 20 years are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.2

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