發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-08 15:49

  本文選題：風(fēng)電投資決策　切入點(diǎn)：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)的能源環(huán)境是擁有較多的沒(méi),但是石油和天然氣則比較缺少。但是僅僅依靠煤炭來(lái)保障我國(guó)的能源供應(yīng),這使得我國(guó)能源的安全的問(wèn)題越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。因此我國(guó)必須在戰(zhàn)略高度上解決能源問(wèn)題,研究風(fēng)電新能源的發(fā)展。從效率的角度來(lái)看,我們要重視研究大型風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn),關(guān)注風(fēng)電發(fā)展的布局、從整體上優(yōu)化風(fēng)電投資建設(shè)。只有完善的政策和良好的發(fā)展環(huán)境才能降低風(fēng)電發(fā)展的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此,必須重視大型風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,加強(qiáng)風(fēng)電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和防范機(jī)制的建設(shè)。本文通過(guò)綜合分析國(guó)內(nèi)外風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀,對(duì)大型風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目的投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)重要性進(jìn)行了闡述,詳細(xì)介紹了我國(guó)風(fēng)能資源儲(chǔ)量及其分布、我國(guó)風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量、我國(guó)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)建設(shè)分布等,詳細(xì)分析了我國(guó)大型風(fēng)電的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,并針對(duì)目前的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了問(wèn)題分析。接著,對(duì)我國(guó)大型風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的投資情況進(jìn)行分析,從政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、等幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了我國(guó)大型風(fēng)電場(chǎng)投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。根據(jù)指標(biāo)體系建立的原則,結(jié)合大唐集團(tuán)風(fēng)電投資決策的特點(diǎn),建立了科學(xué)、全面、適用的綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。該體系包括技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、社會(huì)與環(huán)境影響等幾個(gè)方面,每一方面又包含不同的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)。進(jìn)利用粗糙集確定權(quán)重,最終建立了綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法,對(duì)大唐集團(tuán)風(fēng)電投資決策進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。本文通過(guò)分析、結(jié)合理論研究,對(duì)大唐集團(tuán)風(fēng)電投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的研究,建立了相應(yīng)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和評(píng)價(jià)模型,并提出了大唐集團(tuán)風(fēng)電投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制,對(duì)大唐集團(tuán)風(fēng)電投資決策具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:China has more energy environment, but oil and natural gas are relatively scarce. However, we only rely on coal to ensure our energy supply. This makes the problem of energy security in our country more and more serious. Therefore, we must solve the problem of energy on a strategic level and study the development of new energy sources for wind power. From the perspective of efficiency, we should attach importance to studying the decision-making risks of large-scale wind power projects. Pay attention to the layout of wind power development and optimize wind power investment and construction as a whole. Only a sound policy and a good development environment can reduce the risk of wind power development. Therefore, we must attach importance to the risk assessment of large-scale wind power projects. Strengthening the construction of wind power risk management and prevention mechanism. This paper expounds the importance of investment decision risk of large-scale wind power projects by synthetically analyzing the present situation of investment risk of wind power projects at home and abroad. This paper introduces in detail the reserves and distribution of wind energy resources in China, the installed capacity of wind power in China, the distribution of wind farm construction in China, and analyzes in detail the development status of large scale wind power in China, and analyzes the problems in view of the present development situation. This paper analyzes the investment situation of large scale wind farm in China, and analyzes the investment risk of large scale wind farm in China from the aspects of policy risk, market risk, technology risk, natural disaster risk, and so on. Based on the characteristics of wind power investment decision in Datang Group, a scientific, comprehensive and applicable comprehensive evaluation index system is established. The system includes technical risk, economic risk, social and environmental impact and so on. Each aspect also contains different evaluation indexes. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation method is established to evaluate the risk of wind power investment decision of Datang Group by making use of rough set to determine the weight. This paper makes a detailed study on the decision-making risk of wind power investment in Datang Group, establishes the corresponding evaluation index system and evaluation model, and puts forward the risk management and coping mechanism of wind power investment in Datang Group. It has important guiding significance to the decision of wind power investment in Datang Group.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：1584529