發(fā)布時間：2018-02-16 13:46

  本文關鍵詞： 電網規(guī)劃 風險評價 物元可拓模型 風險預警　出處：《華北電力大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來城市經濟快速增長，電網投資建設加速，致使電網規(guī)劃的風險規(guī)避成為電網企業(yè)自身發(fā)展與保障城市經濟發(fā)展的重要研究課題，建立風險預警系統(tǒng)迫在眉睫。當前關于電網規(guī)劃風險的研究多集中在風險要素處理方法和風險評價方面，對于城市快速發(fā)展對電網規(guī)劃帶來的風險考慮不足，電網規(guī)劃風險預警也缺少有效工具。因此，科學合理地構建城市電網規(guī)劃風險預警系統(tǒng)具有重大的理論和現實意義。 論文在查閱大量文獻資料及實地調研基礎上，著重研究了城市發(fā)展與電網規(guī)劃間的關系，對投融資、信貸、擔保等金融政策不健全對電網規(guī)劃的風險進行了重點分析，，構建了電網規(guī)劃風險預警指標體系；針對不同風險要素特點，用不同分布函數對風險要素發(fā)生概率進行了計量，在此基礎上建立了基于物元可拓理論的城市電網規(guī)劃風險綜合評價模型和基于全壽命周期風險利潤的評價方法，將這幾種方法結合起來作為電網規(guī)劃風險評價方法；基于構建的預警系統(tǒng)框架、風險預警識別和風險預警評價系統(tǒng)，設計了電網規(guī)劃風險預警系統(tǒng)；利用開發(fā)的電網規(guī)劃風險預警系統(tǒng)軟件，以康巴什新區(qū)電網規(guī)劃10kV中壓配電方案為例運行，參照預警得到的綜合評價風險等級和財務風險水平，結合康巴什新區(qū)發(fā)展的特殊性，從電網公司和政府部門兩個角度提出相應的風險防范策略。 實證說明論文所建立的指標、模型與預警系統(tǒng)具有可行性，在后續(xù)研究中會對該系統(tǒng)不斷完善，以期對電網企業(yè)提供更好的參考。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of urban economy and the acceleration of power grid investment and construction, the risk avoidance of power network planning has become an important research topic for the development of power grid enterprises and the protection of urban economic development. It is urgent to establish a risk early warning system. The current research on the risk of power network planning is mostly focused on the risk factor treatment and risk evaluation, and the risk caused by the rapid development of the city to the power network planning is not considered enough. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to construct the urban power network planning risk early warning system scientifically and reasonably. On the basis of consulting a lot of literature and field investigation, this paper focuses on the relationship between urban development and power network planning, and focuses on the risk of imperfect financial policies, such as investment and financing, credit and guarantee, to power network planning. According to the characteristics of different risk factors, the probability of occurrence of risk elements is measured with different distribution functions. On this basis, the comprehensive evaluation model of urban power network planning risk based on matter-element extension theory and the evaluation method of risk profit based on the whole life cycle are established, and these methods are combined as the power network planning risk evaluation method. Based on the framework of early warning system, risk early warning identification and risk early warning evaluation system, a power network planning risk early warning system is designed, and the software of power network planning risk early warning system is developed. Taking the power network planning of Kangbashi New area as an example, the 10kV medium voltage distribution scheme is operated, and the comprehensive evaluation risk grade and financial risk level obtained by early warning are referred to, combined with the particularity of the development of Kangbashi New area. Put forward the corresponding risk prevention strategy from two angles of grid company and government department. The empirical results show that the index, model and early warning system established in this paper are feasible, and will be improved continuously in the follow-up study, in order to provide a better reference for power grid enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.24;F426.61

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本文編號：1515656