本文關(guān)鍵詞： 中韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 機(jī)電產(chǎn)品 貿(mào)易自由化 一般均衡 GTAP模型　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：摘要：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化近幾年來(lái)發(fā)展迅速,構(gòu)建自由貿(mào)易區(qū)已成為了推動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作和克服經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化負(fù)面效應(yīng)的最有效、最便捷和相對(duì)容易的途徑。在此背景下,中國(guó)與韓國(guó)的自由貿(mào)易區(qū)談判于2012年正式啟動(dòng)。機(jī)電產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易是兩國(guó)貿(mào)易自由化談判中一個(gè)極具爭(zhēng)議的方面,同時(shí)也是中韓雙邊貿(mào)易最主要的組成部分。因此,有必要就中韓自貿(mào)區(qū)對(duì)雙邊機(jī)電產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行深入研究。 本文基于1992-2012年中韓經(jīng)貿(mào)數(shù)據(jù),從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性、互補(bǔ)性、技術(shù)復(fù)雜度和產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易四個(gè)角度全面考察了中韓機(jī)電產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的結(jié)構(gòu)特征和發(fā)展趨勢(shì),重新審視了貿(mào)易競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和合作的格局。結(jié)果表明,韓國(guó)占絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)的局面已發(fā)生了改變,中國(guó)機(jī)電產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力逐漸增強(qiáng),部分產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力已超過(guò)韓國(guó),但總體而言雙邊貿(mào)易仍具有很強(qiáng)的互補(bǔ)性,產(chǎn)品技術(shù)差距逐漸縮小,產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易趨高,雙邊貿(mào)易潛力巨大。 本文隨后運(yùn)用GTAP模型分析了中韓貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)雙邊機(jī)電產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響。研究結(jié)果表明,中韓貿(mào)易自由化對(duì)兩國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和貿(mào)易的影響利大于弊；雙邊貿(mào)易自由化帶來(lái)的貿(mào)易條件改善和出口增加將促進(jìn)我國(guó)社會(huì)福利的提高；我國(guó)機(jī)電產(chǎn)業(yè)的總產(chǎn)出和總出口都會(huì)擴(kuò)張,且主要體現(xiàn)在對(duì)韓國(guó)出口的增加；雙邊貿(mào)易自由化將形成顯著的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造和貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效果,其中日本和美國(guó)受到貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移的影響程度最深；總體而言中韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的構(gòu)建將為我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和機(jī)電產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的發(fā)展創(chuàng)造新的契機(jī)。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the rapid development of regional economic integration in recent years, the construction of free trade area has become the most effective, convenient and relatively easy way to promote regional economic cooperation and overcome the negative effects of economic integration. The free trade zone negotiations between China and South Korea were officially launched on 2012. Trade in mechanical and electrical products is a controversial aspect of the trade liberalization negotiations between the two countries, and it is also the most important part of bilateral trade between China and South Korea. It is necessary to study the economic effect of China-Korea Free Trade Zone on bilateral trade in mechanical and electrical products. Based on the economic and trade data between China and South Korea from 1992 to 2012, this paper comprehensively examines the structural characteristics and development trend of the trade in mechanical and electrical products between China and South Korea from the perspectives of competitiveness, complementarity, technological complexity and intra-industry trade. The results show that the situation of Korea's absolute advantage has changed, and the competitiveness of China's mechanical and electrical products has been gradually strengthened, and some products' competitiveness has surpassed that of South Korea. But in general, bilateral trade is still highly complementary, the gap between products and technology is gradually narrowing, the intra-industry trade is becoming higher, and the potential of bilateral trade is huge. This paper then uses GTAP model to analyze the impact of Sino-Korean trade liberalization on bilateral trade in mechanical and electrical products. The results show that the impact of Sino-Korean trade liberalization on the macroeconomic and trade between China and South Korea outweighs the disadvantages. The improvement of terms of trade and the increase of export brought by bilateral trade liberalization will promote the improvement of China's social welfare, the total output and total export of China's mechanical and electrical industry will expand, and the increase of export to Korea will be the main manifestation. Bilateral trade liberalization will result in significant effects of trade creation and trade transfer, among which Japan and the United States are the most affected by trade transfer. In general, the construction of China-Korea Free Trade area will create a new opportunity for the development of China's macroeconomic and mechanical and electrical products trade.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F416.6;F752.6;F753.126

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