本文關(guān)鍵詞： 可再生能源配額制 綠色證書 系統(tǒng)動力學 電源結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《華北電力大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：為消除可再生能源發(fā)電、上網(wǎng)和市場消納三大主要障礙、鼓勵成本競爭和推動技術(shù)進步、有效調(diào)整電源結(jié)構(gòu)并實現(xiàn)政府政策目標,“十二五”期間,中國將推出可再生能源配額制(RPS),并推進可再生能源配額交易制度的建設(shè)�？稍偕茉磁漕~交易制度,不僅有利于消除可再生能源發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展面臨的三大主要障礙,而且有利于可再生能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的規(guī)�；l(fā)展和競爭性市場的形成。 基于上述背景,在分析國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀及成果的基礎(chǔ)上,本文研究了可再生能源配額交易制對我國電源結(jié)構(gòu)的影響機理及效果。首先,從制度變遷的角度分析了實施可再生能源配額制的制度環(huán)境和相關(guān)機制設(shè)計；然后,建立了可交易的綠色證書(TGC)市場和電力市場的局部均衡模型,分析了TGC市場與電力市場的相互作用以及R.PS對電源結(jié)構(gòu)的作用機理；以此為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了TGC市場和電力市場交互作用的系統(tǒng)動力學模型,運用vensim軟件對RPS制度在2012-2020年的實施情況進行模擬仿真和情景分析,以得到RPS實施后對TGC市場的影響(包括TGC價格、可再生能源裝機和可再生能源發(fā)電量)、對電力市場的影響(包括電力價格、傳統(tǒng)能源裝機和傳統(tǒng)能源發(fā)電量)以及最終對我國電源機構(gòu)的影響效果。 研究結(jié)果表明：①在TGC市場中,受市場供求規(guī)律及價格管制政策的影響,TGC價格從基準價格上升到價格上限,維持一段時間后快速下降至極小值并發(fā)生小幅度震蕩；可再生能源在建裝機隨著TGC價格的波動曲線而變化,因此,可再生能源發(fā)電量經(jīng)歷了加速增長、勻速增長和減速增長的過程。②在電力市場中,電力價格從初始價格平穩(wěn)下降到價格下限,維持低位一段時間后快速上升至極大值并發(fā)生小幅度震蕩；傳統(tǒng)能源在建裝機隨著電力價格的波動曲線而變化,因此傳統(tǒng)能源發(fā)電量經(jīng)歷加速增長、減速增長、低速勻速增長和加速增長的過程。③在調(diào)整電源結(jié)構(gòu)方面,傳統(tǒng)能源發(fā)電量增速小于可再生能源發(fā)電量增速,因此煤電占比逐年下降且綠電占比逐年上升。RPS的實施通過推動綠電需求,促進了TGC市場的發(fā)展,再通過市場機制作用以及與電力市場的交互影響,激勵了可再生能源裝機的投資,并在一定程度上抑制了傳統(tǒng)能源裝機的投資,從而促進了我國電源結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整。④情景分析表明,國家規(guī)定的配額比例越高,交互作用的TGC市場與電力市場越不易實現(xiàn)均衡,但其最終對優(yōu)化我國電源結(jié)構(gòu)的作用效果越明顯。
[Abstract]:In order to eliminate the three major obstacles of renewable energy generation, access to the Internet and market acceptance, encourage cost competition and promote technological progress, effectively adjust the power supply structure and achieve government policy objectives, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. China will introduce a renewable energy quota system and promote the establishment of a renewable energy quota trading system. It is not only helpful to eliminate the three major obstacles to the development of renewable energy power generation industry, but also conducive to the large-scale development of renewable energy industry and the formation of competitive market. Based on the above background, based on the analysis of domestic and foreign research status and results, this paper studies the mechanism and effect of the renewable energy quota trading system on the power supply structure in China. From the perspective of institutional changes, this paper analyzes the institutional environment and related mechanism design of implementing the renewable energy quota system. Then, the local equilibrium model of tradable green certificate market and electricity market is established, and the interaction between TGC market and electricity market and the mechanism of R.PS on power supply structure are analyzed. Based on this, the system dynamics model of the interaction between TGC market and electricity market is constructed. Vensim software is used to simulate and analyze the implementation of RPS in 2012-2020. In order to obtain the impact on the TGC market after the implementation of RPS (including the price of TGC, renewable energy installed and renewable energy generation), the impact on the electricity market (including electricity price). Traditional energy installation and traditional energy generation) and the final impact on the power supply mechanism in China. The results show that in the TGC market, the price of TGC rises from the base price to the upper limit due to the influence of market supply and demand law and price control policy. Maintain a period of time after a rapid decline to the minimum value and small shocks; With the fluctuation curve of TGC price, renewable energy generation has experienced accelerated growth, uniform growth and deceleration growth process. 2. 2 in the electricity market. The price of electric power drops steadily from the initial price to the lower limit of the price, after maintaining low level for a period of time, it rises rapidly to the maximum value and has a small oscillation. The traditional energy generation is changing with the fluctuation curve of electricity price, so the traditional energy generation goes through the process of accelerating growth, decelerating growth, increasing at low speed and accelerating growth. 3. 3 in the adjustment of power supply structure. The traditional energy generation rate is smaller than the renewable energy generation rate, so the coal power share and the green power share increase year by year. The implementation of RPS promotes the development of the TGC market by promoting the green electricity demand. Through the effect of market mechanism and interaction with electricity market, the investment of renewable energy installation is encouraged, and the investment of traditional energy installation is restrained to a certain extent. Therefore, the adjustment of power supply structure in China shows that the higher the quota ratio, the more difficult it is for the interactive TGC market and electricity market to achieve equilibrium. But its function effect to optimize the power supply structure of our country finally is more obvious.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 任東明;;中國可再生能源配額制和實施對策探討[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2011年22期

2 趙旺初;國外可再生能源配額政策概述[J];廣東電力;2001年03期

3 秦s牶，

本文編號：1451891