本文關(guān)鍵詞： 中國(guó) 俄羅斯 油氣合作 政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 分析　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：能源問(wèn)題是當(dāng)今世界普遍關(guān)注的重大問(wèn)題。能源安全和一個(gè)國(guó)家的生存和發(fā)展緊密相關(guān)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)快速發(fā)展,中國(guó)能源需求越來(lái)越大,而國(guó)內(nèi)能源生產(chǎn)又無(wú)法滿(mǎn)足能源消費(fèi)需求。由于中俄互為最大的鄰國(guó),與油氣資源豐富的俄羅斯開(kāi)展能源合作有助于中國(guó)擺脫對(duì)中東產(chǎn)油國(guó)的依賴(lài)性,并且能幫助中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)油氣來(lái)源多元化戰(zhàn)略。從俄羅斯方面來(lái)看,中國(guó)快速發(fā)展的能源市場(chǎng)對(duì)俄羅斯油氣產(chǎn)業(yè)也具有巨大的吸引力。 表面看來(lái),中俄油氣合作對(duì)兩國(guó)都具有重大的戰(zhàn)略意義,并且符合雙方的利益。但這僅僅是問(wèn)題的一方面,當(dāng)今油氣作為不可再生的戰(zhàn)略資源,日益成為國(guó)家間博弈的政治工具。其實(shí),油氣與政治是緊密聯(lián)系的,不涉及政治的油氣幾乎不存在。21世紀(jì)以來(lái),油氣公司面臨相當(dāng)大的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響。目前油氣產(chǎn)業(yè)在很大程度上依賴(lài)于國(guó)家政策。當(dāng)今主要趨勢(shì)是由國(guó)有企業(yè)進(jìn)行的油氣資產(chǎn)整合。因此,由于種種因素,為確保中國(guó)與俄羅斯的油氣合作穩(wěn)定和可持續(xù)發(fā)展,正確看待和評(píng)價(jià)中俄油氣合作的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有重大的意義。本文主要目標(biāo)是通過(guò)分析中俄油氣合作的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不同層次,對(duì)中俄油氣合作的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定性分析。 本論文的緒論給出了本研究的基礎(chǔ)信息,之后是簡(jiǎn)短的文獻(xiàn)綜述。研究的問(wèn)題中,討論了學(xué)科的起源、闡釋,而研究目的是認(rèn)清中俄石油天然氣領(lǐng)域合作中的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。這樣界定了主要研究的問(wèn)題,并列出研究設(shè)計(jì)與數(shù)據(jù)收集模式。 第一章的焦點(diǎn)是：形成本研究中與政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有關(guān)的核心術(shù)語(yǔ)的概念。這一章的目的是檢驗(yàn)理論觀點(diǎn)與背景環(huán)境,建立基礎(chǔ)框架,在這一框架內(nèi)界定特定行業(yè)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,并把它運(yùn)用到中俄石油天然氣行業(yè)合作中。 第二章主要關(guān)注特定行業(yè)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及其實(shí)際運(yùn)用。目的是根據(jù)第一章中的基本政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論,加上與政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其分析在實(shí)踐方面有關(guān)的補(bǔ)充文獻(xiàn),建立一個(gè)框架。之后,進(jìn)一步發(fā)展這個(gè)框架,先分析政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及它與全球環(huán)境、石油天然氣行業(yè)的關(guān)系,再與特定行業(yè)政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析相關(guān)聯(lián)。討論與石油天然氣行業(yè)有關(guān)的變量,以及建立政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型的方法論。這一章的結(jié)論中,把政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析作為一種決策與管理工具對(duì)其進(jìn)行考察。 第三章在不同層次對(duì)中俄石油天然氣合作進(jìn)行分析,主要重點(diǎn)在于中俄雙邊關(guān)系上,同時(shí)也關(guān)注了俄國(guó)的投資環(huán)境、與俄國(guó)相關(guān)的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、以及石油天然氣特定行業(yè)。 俄國(guó)的投資環(huán)境是矛盾的——需要外國(guó)投資者的資本與技術(shù),但國(guó)家又想奪回對(duì)投資項(xiàng)目的控制權(quán),尤其是在戰(zhàn)略領(lǐng)域。在俄國(guó)石油天然氣行業(yè)中,主要行為者是總統(tǒng)、總理、以及國(guó)有公司如俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司和俄羅斯國(guó)家石油公司。因此,這一部門(mén)的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)源于政府頂層,而非地區(qū)層。投資者本國(guó)與東道國(guó)的關(guān)系將嚴(yán)重影響投資者所面臨的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn),尤其是在石油天然氣行業(yè)中,因?yàn)榻灰资窃谡攲舆M(jìn)行的。 傳統(tǒng)上,外國(guó)投資者在俄國(guó)石油天然氣領(lǐng)域中最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)便是國(guó)有化以及股份的強(qiáng)制出售。但是,這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)幾乎是不可能的,因?yàn)樗械拇枭潭际窃趦蓚�(gè)政府的頂層間進(jìn)行,俄國(guó)權(quán)力機(jī)構(gòu)若如此做,這就意味著公開(kāi)反對(duì)中國(guó),將會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響到雙邊關(guān)系。政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能更多地出現(xiàn)在一些運(yùn)營(yíng)問(wèn)題上,如稅收、進(jìn)出口許可、立法改變及價(jià)格控制上。但是,如果投資項(xiàng)目對(duì)俄羅斯政府有利,那么,即使是最困難的實(shí)際問(wèn)題也可在政府權(quán)力機(jī)構(gòu)的協(xié)助下被輕松解決。 中俄油氣合作充滿(mǎn)不確定因素：中國(guó)在油氣合作方面極有可能多元化自己的對(duì)外聯(lián)系,因此無(wú)法保證中國(guó)對(duì)俄國(guó)石油天然氣的長(zhǎng)期需求,而且無(wú)法確定俄國(guó)能保障在未來(lái)長(zhǎng)期向中國(guó)供應(yīng)烴類(lèi)產(chǎn)品�？紤]到俄國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)極度依賴(lài)石油天然氣行業(yè),而自然資源又是有限的,所以任何戰(zhàn)略投資,以及相應(yīng)的國(guó)外公司對(duì)該部門(mén)自然資源的控制,都被俄國(guó)當(dāng)權(quán)視為威脅。中國(guó)公司在嘗試投資于俄國(guó)油氣工業(yè)時(shí),不止一次碰到了嚴(yán)重阻礙。在已經(jīng)形成的模式下,中國(guó)更喜歡“以貸款換原料”的方式,因?yàn)檫@樣,類(lèi)似合作的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可被降為最低。盡管自身開(kāi)發(fā)新礦床、建造管道以及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的資金不足,俄國(guó)尚不準(zhǔn)備邀請(qǐng)中國(guó)共同開(kāi)發(fā)戰(zhàn)略礦產(chǎn)地,當(dāng)前政府的資源民族主義態(tài)度極為強(qiáng)烈,而這種態(tài)度在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的將來(lái),未必會(huì)有改變。盡管中俄間宣傳著“戰(zhàn)略伙伴關(guān)系”,但雙邊關(guān)系中的互不信任問(wèn)題極為尖銳,這阻礙了石油天然氣的合作發(fā)展。雙邊關(guān)系中可能的改變,將直接影響到未來(lái)石油天然氣領(lǐng)域共同項(xiàng)目的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度。
[Abstract]:The energy problem is a major issue of common concern in the world today. The survival and development of energy security and a country closely related. With the sustained and rapid economic development, China energy demand increasing, while domestic energy production can not meet consumer demand. Because of energy between China and Russia, and Russia's rich oil and gas resources to carry out energy cooperation to help get rid of Chinese on Middle Eastern oil dependence, and can help to realize the strategy of diversifying the sources of oil and gas Chinese. From the Russian point of view, the rapid development of the Chinese energy market also has great appeal to the Russian oil and gas industry.
Apparently, the Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation is of great strategic significance for the two countries, and in the interests of both sides. But this is only one aspect of the problem, as a strategy of non renewable resources in oil and gas, has become a political tool of the game between countries. In fact, oil and gas and politics are closely linked, since not involved the politics of oil and gas is almost non-existent in.21 century, oil and gas companies face political risk considerable influence. At present, the oil and gas industry depends heavily on national policy. The main trend is the integration of oil and gas assets by state-owned enterprises. Therefore, due to various factors, in order to ensure the China with Russian oil and gas cooperation and stability and sustainable development is of great significance to correctly view and evaluate the political risks of Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation. The main goal of this paper is through the analysis of the political risks of different levels of the Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation, Sino Russian oil The political risk of gas cooperation is qualitatively analyzed.
The introduction of this paper gives the basic information of the study, after a brief literature review. Research questions, discuss the subject origin, interpretation, and purpose of the study is to understand the political risks of Sino Russian cooperation in the field of petroleum and natural gas. It defines the main research issues, and lists the research design and data collection model.
The first chapter is the focus of the formation of concepts related to the political risks of core terms in this study. The purpose of this chapter is to examine theories and context based framework, the definition of political risk factors in specific industries within this framework, and apply it to the Sino Russian cooperation in the oil and gas industry.
The second chapter focuses on the analysis of political risks in specific industries and its practical application. According to the basic theory of political risk in the first chapter, coupled with the political risk and risk analysis in practice the relevant supplementary documents, the establishment of a framework. After the further development of the framework, the first analysis of political risk and its relationship with the global environment, oil the natural gas industry, and analysis of the political risk associated to specific industries. Talk about the oil and gas industry variables, and the method of establishing the model of political risk in theory. The conclusion of this chapter, the political risk analysis as a decision-making and management tools for their study.
The third chapter analyzes the Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation at different levels. The main focus is on Sino Russian bilateral relations. At the same time, it also focuses on Russia's investment environment, the political risks related to Russia, and the specific industries of oil and gas.
Russia's investment environment is contradictory, needs capital and technology to foreign investors, but the country wants to take control of the investment projects, especially in the field of strategy. In the Russian oil and gas industry, the main actors are the president, prime minister, and state-owned companies such as Ross, Russia's Gazprom and Rosneft the company. Therefore, the Department of political risk from the top of the government, rather than the area. Relationship between country of investors and the host country will seriously affect the political risk faced by investors, especially in the oil and gas industry, because the transaction is in the top of the government.
Traditionally, the risk of foreign investors in the Russian oil and gas field is the largest state-owned and forced the sale of shares. However, this risk is almost impossible, because all consultations are in the top two of the Russian government, if the authority to do so, this means that public opposition China, it will seriously affect bilateral relations. The political risk is more likely to appear in some operation problems, such as tax, import and export license, legislative changes and price control. However, if the investment project, the Russian government that, even the most difficult problems in the government authority can also help is easy to solve.
The Sino Russian oil and gas cooperation is full of uncertain factors: China cooperation in oil and gas is likely to own diversification of external relations, therefore cannot guarantee China long-term demand for Russian oil and natural gas, and cannot be determined in the future to Russia to guarantee long-term supply of Chinese hydrocarbon products. Considering the Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas industry, and the natural resource is limited, so any strategic investment, in the Department of natural resources and the corresponding control of foreign companies, is Russia's power as a threat. Chinese companies trying to invest in the Russian oil and gas industry, more than once encountered a serious impediment. In the formation of mode, Chinese more love "the loan for raw material", because of this, the risk of a similar cooperation can be reduced to a minimum. In spite of its own development of new deposits, pipeline construction and infrastructure funds are not sufficient, Russia China is not ready to invite Chinese joint development strategy of mineral resource nationalism, the current government's attitude is very strong, and this attitude in the foreseeable future, may not have changed. Although the propaganda of the Sino Russian strategic partnership, but mistrust in bilateral relations is extremely sharp, which hindered the oil and gas development cooperation. Change possible in the bilateral relations, will directly affect the future political risk degree of petroleum and natural gas field project.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.22;F451.2;D822.351.2

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