本文關(guān)鍵詞：家電下鄉(xiāng)政策影響農(nóng)村居民消費的實證分析　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 家電下鄉(xiāng) 刺激效應(yīng) 替代效應(yīng) 面板數(shù)據(jù) 固定效應(yīng)模型

【摘要】：為了擴大農(nóng)村消費，2007年12月1日，家電下鄉(xiāng)政策在山東、河南和四川三省開始實行，并在2008年12月和2009年2月向全國其他省份推廣。但該政策是否真的刺激了農(nóng)村消費以及在多大程度上推動了消費，則值得我們?nèi)パ芯俊?本文利用山東、江蘇、河南和江西四個省份共59個地級市自2005年至2011年的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)，建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，去分析家電下鄉(xiāng)政策對家電下鄉(xiāng)產(chǎn)品的刺激效應(yīng)、對其他生活消費支出的替代效應(yīng)和對生活消費總支出的影響。為此，，我們分別選擇了居民家庭年人均家庭設(shè)備消費支出、扣除家庭設(shè)備消費支出之外的其他生活消費支出和生活消費總支出作為被解釋變量，選擇家電下鄉(xiāng)政策實行后的年份為政策虛擬變量，通過增加農(nóng)村居民年人均純收入、進出口總額與地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的比例和6個時間虛擬變量為控制變量，建立3個不同的面板數(shù)據(jù)計量模型。為了謹慎起見，我們將固定效應(yīng)模型估計方法、隨機效應(yīng)模型估計方法和一階差分模型估計方法得到的系數(shù)估計值放在一起進行比較。而在進行政策分析時，通常固定效應(yīng)模型是最具有說服力的，因此我們將主要以固定效應(yīng)模型的估計值作為主要依據(jù)。 面板數(shù)據(jù)的回歸結(jié)果顯示，家電下鄉(xiāng)政策對包括家電下鄉(xiāng)產(chǎn)品在內(nèi)的家庭設(shè)備的消費有較強的刺激作用，且隨著時間的推進，家電下鄉(xiāng)政策的刺激效應(yīng)越來越大。模型的回歸結(jié)果同樣表明家電下鄉(xiāng)對除了家庭設(shè)備之外的其他生活消費并沒有顯著的替代效應(yīng)。最后，家電下鄉(xiāng)政策對農(nóng)村居民人均生活消費總支出也沒有顯著的影響，其原因則可能是家庭設(shè)備只占生活消費總支出中較小的比例，盡管家電下鄉(xiāng)政策對家庭設(shè)備有明顯的刺激作用，但對生活消費總支出的影響并不顯著。 最后我們認為應(yīng)該繼續(xù)推行刺激農(nóng)村消費的其他政策，并給出了政策建議，即擴大商品補貼范圍和延長財政補貼的實行時間，并建議在以后實行財政補貼時應(yīng)該更全面的去考慮其影響，不僅應(yīng)該看到直接的刺激效應(yīng)，還應(yīng)該看到是否對其他的消費有替代效應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:In December 1st 2007, in order to expand rural consumption, home appliances policy began to be implemented in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan provinces. In December 2008 and February 2009, it was extended to other provinces across the country. But whether the policy really stimulated rural consumption and to what extent, it was worth studying. Based on the economic data of 59 prefecture-level cities in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and Jiangxi provinces from 2005 to 2011, a panel data model is established. To analyze the stimulus effect of household appliances policy to rural products, the alternative effect on other consumer expenditure and the impact on the total expenditure of living consumption. We chose household annual household equipment consumption expenditure per capita, deducting household equipment consumption expenditure other than household equipment consumption expenditure and total living consumption expenditure as the explained variables. Choosing the year after the implementation of the policy of household appliances to go to the countryside as the policy virtual variable, by increasing the annual per capita net income of rural residents, the ratio of the total import and export to the regional GDP and the six time virtual variables as the control variable. Three different panel data measurement models are established. In order to be cautious, we will estimate the fixed effect model. The coefficients estimated by the stochastic effect model estimation method and the first-order difference model estimation method are compared together, but in the policy analysis, the fixed effect model is usually the most persuasive. Therefore, we mainly take the fixed effect model as the main basis. The regression results of panel data show that the policy of home appliances going to rural areas has a strong stimulating effect on the consumption of household equipment, including household appliances products, and with the development of time. The regression results of the model also show that there is no significant alternative effect on household appliances in rural areas other than household equipment. Finally. The household appliances policy has no significant impact on the total expenditure of rural residents' per capita living consumption, which may be due to the fact that household equipment only accounts for a small proportion of the total expenditure of household consumption. Although the policy of home appliances to rural areas has obvious stimulating effect on household equipment, it has no significant effect on the total expenditure of household consumption. Finally, we believe that we should continue to promote other policies to stimulate rural consumption, and give policy recommendations, that is, expand the scope of commodity subsidies and extend the duration of fiscal subsidies. It is suggested that the effects of fiscal subsidies should be considered more comprehensively in the future, not only to see the direct stimulus effect, but also to see whether there is a substitute effect on other consumption.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F323.8;F426.6

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