本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究　出處：《廣西科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：20世紀(jì)80年代以來(lái)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展，中國(guó)汽車制造業(yè)取得了蓬勃發(fā)展，已成為中國(guó)重要的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一。汽車產(chǎn)量由1980年的22萬(wàn)輛迅速增長(zhǎng)到2012年的1927.18萬(wàn)輛，銷量從1996年的14.59萬(wàn)輛增長(zhǎng)到2012年的1930.64萬(wàn)輛。汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的集中度、制造能力、管理水平都有顯著地提高。汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)隨著中國(guó)加入WTO后得到了不斷的升級(jí)和調(diào)整，企業(yè)間的兼并重組也被不斷推進(jìn)。同時(shí)，國(guó)外汽車制造企業(yè)進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的速度日益加快，導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)汽車制造企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)的內(nèi)外部競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境進(jìn)一步激烈化。此外，兼并重組也給企業(yè)帶來(lái)了潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，部分企業(yè)開始出現(xiàn)資金周轉(zhuǎn)不靈、償債能力及主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)能力下降等不利現(xiàn)象。中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)在面臨良好發(fā)展機(jī)遇的同時(shí)也將承受更大的經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 目前國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的研究較多，但由于各類型企業(yè)面臨的情況不同，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的應(yīng)用也沒(méi)有達(dá)到預(yù)想的效果。中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)是資金密集型企業(yè)，投資規(guī)模大、回收期長(zhǎng)，市場(chǎng)環(huán)境復(fù)雜，財(cái)務(wù)活動(dòng)可能存在各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此，對(duì)中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的分析不僅關(guān)系到企業(yè)的健康發(fā)展，而且也是市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)體制的客觀要求。鑒于此，，本文結(jié)合財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論以及汽車制造企業(yè)自身的特點(diǎn)，利用小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型、預(yù)警結(jié)果分析等定量和定性分析相結(jié)合的方法，對(duì)中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警進(jìn)行了較為深入的探討。 本文首先通過(guò)對(duì)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警理論進(jìn)行歸納和總結(jié)，界定了財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的概念，概述了與企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警相關(guān)的理論，分析了中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理現(xiàn)狀，并從內(nèi)、外部環(huán)境兩方面對(duì)其成因進(jìn)行分析。然后，以選擇預(yù)警模型、選取預(yù)警模型樣本及指標(biāo)、構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型、對(duì)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析的基本思路建立了基于小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的中國(guó)汽車制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型。最后，利用本文所構(gòu)建的預(yù)警模型對(duì)某一具體汽車制造企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，并針對(duì)該企業(yè)預(yù)警結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的防范對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, with the rapid development of economy, China's automobile manufacturing industry has made vigorous development. It has become one of the most important pillar industries in China. Car production increased rapidly from 220,000 in 1980 to nineteen million two hundred and seventy-one thousand and eight hundred in 2012. Sales rose from 145,900 in 1996 to nineteen million three hundred and six thousand and four hundred in 2012. The concentration and manufacturing capabilities of the auto industry. With China's entry into WTO, the structure of automobile industry has been continuously upgraded and adjusted, and the merger and reorganization among enterprises has been continuously promoted. The speed of foreign automobile manufacturing enterprises entering the Chinese market is accelerating day by day, which leads to the internal and external competition environment of domestic automobile manufacturing enterprises becoming more intense. In addition, merger and reorganization also bring potential risks to enterprises. Some companies are starting to experience liquidity problems. At the same time, the Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises will also bear greater operating and financial risks while facing good development opportunities. At present, there are many researches on financial risk early warning at home and abroad, but due to the different situations faced by different types of enterprises. The application of financial risk warning has not achieved the desired results. Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises are capital-intensive enterprises with large scale of investment, long payback period and complex market environment. Therefore, it is not only related to the healthy development of enterprises, but also the objective requirements of the market competition system. This paper combines the theory of financial risk management and the characteristics of automobile manufacturing enterprises, using wavelet neural network model, early warning results analysis and other quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. This paper makes a deep discussion on the financial risk early warning of the automobile manufacturing enterprises in China. This paper first summarizes the theory of enterprise financial risk early warning, defines the concept of financial risk and financial risk early warning, and summarizes the theory related to enterprise financial risk early warning. This paper analyzes the development history and risk management status of Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises, and analyzes the causes of its formation from two aspects of internal and external environment. Then, to select the early warning model, early warning model samples and indicators. The financial risk early warning model is constructed, and the basic idea of empirical analysis of the model is established. Finally, the financial risk early warning model of Chinese automobile manufacturing enterprises is established based on wavelet neural network. The financial risk situation of a specific automobile manufacturing enterprise is forecasted by the early warning model constructed in this paper, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for the early warning result of the enterprise.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F426.471

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