本文關鍵詞：宏觀經(jīng)濟與電力需求的短期分析預測　出處：《華北電力大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 電力需求預測 投入產(chǎn)出模型 協(xié)整分析

【摘要】：改革開放三十年來,我國能源消費迅速增長,對電力的需求也急劇增加,進行準確的電力需求預測,是制訂電力工業(yè)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的重要依據(jù)。同時,也和國家能源安全、社會穩(wěn)定密切相關。但是多年來,電力建設和電力供需周期性大起大落怪圈卻一直困擾著電力工業(yè),每一次供需失衡都對社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展形成制約。無論電力短缺還是電力過剩,都不利于國民經(jīng)濟及電力工業(yè)自身的健康發(fā)展,要解決這一問題,必須對電力發(fā)展做科學的規(guī)劃。基于此,只有正確判斷未來宏觀經(jīng)濟和電力需求的增長趨勢,才能得到合理的規(guī)劃結果。 本文對經(jīng)濟預測中使用的結構預測和非結構預測兩種方法進行了闡述。指出改革開放以來我國經(jīng)濟增長與電力需求之間具有高度相關性,分析了我國電力消費彈性系數(shù)的變化規(guī)律,研究了我國的電力消費結構日益明顯的“工業(yè)化”特征,對各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟運行與用電量增長之間的關系進行了詳細闡述,認為隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整和城市化進程不斷推進,我國電力需求還將不斷增長。 在回顧了2012年宏觀經(jīng)濟和電力工業(yè)運行情況的基礎上,本文對2013年宏觀經(jīng)濟進行了展望,利用結構預測和非結構預測兩種方法,分別采用投入產(chǎn)出模型和協(xié)整分析理論,測算了2013年全社會用電量。研究結果表明2013年我國全社會用電量將達到5.3-5.5萬億千瓦時,增速將在6%-9%之間。
[Abstract]:Thirty years of reform and opening up, China's rapid growth in energy consumption, but also a sharp increase in demand for electricity, electricity demand forecast, is the basis for formulating development strategy of power industry. At the same time, and also closely related to national energy security and social stability. But over the years, electric power construction and power supply and demand periodic cycle change radically it has been plagued by the electric power industry, every form of supply and demand imbalance restricts the development of society and economy. Whether the power shortage or surplus electricity, are not conducive to the healthy development of the national economy and the power industry itself, in order to solve this problem, must make scientific planning for electric power development. Based on this, only the correct judgment of the future growth trend the macro economy and power demand, planning to get reasonable results.
This paper expounds two methods of structure prediction used in economic forecasting and non structure. It is pointed out that there is a high correlation between China's economic growth and power demand since the reform and opening up, analyzed the variation of elastic coefficient of electricity consumption in our country, the research of China's electric power consumption structure is becoming more and more obvious characteristics of "industrialization" on the relationship between the regional economy and consumption growth in detail, that with the continuous progress of city industrial structure adjustment and urbanization, the demand for electric power in China will also continue to grow.
Based on reviewing the 2012 macroeconomic and the operation of the electric power industry, this paper has carried on the forecast to 2013 macroeconomic, two methods using non structure prediction and structure prediction, using input-output model and cointegration theory, the 2013 estimates of total power consumption. The results show that in 2013 China's total electricity consumption will reach 5.3-5.5 billion kwh, the growth rate will be between 6%-9%.

【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61;F123.16

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