發(fā)布時間：2018-02-19 17:35

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 投資評估 品牌 選擇成本 價值效應　出處：《山東大學》2010年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】： 本文利用經(jīng)濟學的分析方法和分析工具對現(xiàn)有投資評估方法及其體系進行了經(jīng)濟分析,通過將基于選擇成本的品牌這個要素納入到投資評估體系及其具體的評估方法當中,構(gòu)建出一般性的投資評估理論框架。 投資是貨幣轉(zhuǎn)化為生產(chǎn)資本,而商品流通則是資本的起點(馬克思,1867)。隨著社會生產(chǎn)力的不斷提高,過剩經(jīng)濟已成為一種常態(tài),此時,消費者的選擇和購買決定了企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的商品價值的最終實現(xiàn),從而也決定了投資的成敗。消費者的選擇和決策過程實際上也就是其在“局限條件”下實現(xiàn)選擇成本最優(yōu)化的過程,選擇成本不僅決定了消費者的選擇效率和企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)效率,它也進一步影響到了投資的效率。品牌的經(jīng)濟學本質(zhì)在于其是降低消費者選擇成本的排他性品類符號,以品牌分析為基礎(chǔ)的投資評估模型則是本文的主要分析對象,它也是本文研究的核心內(nèi)容。本文的一切研究皆是利用和圍繞引入品牌的投資評估模型(簡稱IVB模型)這一核心范疇而展開的。 本文對投資評估的經(jīng)濟分析是從決定投資最后完成的“驚險的跳躍”,即投資價值的最終實現(xiàn)考察入手的,利用品牌經(jīng)濟學的選擇成本分析范式,通過分析品牌與消費者選擇行為之間的關(guān)系,將品牌分析引入到投資評估的分析范式當中,從而實現(xiàn)投資評估進一步的精確化。換言之,本文將以選擇成本分析為基礎(chǔ)的“品牌”看作是投資評估的重要分析內(nèi)容,作為整個投資評估分析的理論依據(jù),依次將品牌這個要素引入到投資評估的基本方法、銀行貸款評估、證券投資評估、并購投資評估理論當中,構(gòu)建引入品牌的投資評估學的一般理論框架： 第一,投資評估理論——IVB模型的提出。本文利用已有的品牌經(jīng)濟學理論將傳統(tǒng)投資投資評估理論與以選擇成本分析為核心的品牌經(jīng)濟學理論有機結(jié)合,并據(jù)此對現(xiàn)有的投資評估方法進行了分析和改進。本文認為,傳統(tǒng)投資評估方法以財務報表分析為基礎(chǔ),其主要問題在于默認項目產(chǎn)量等于銷量,這種默認在短缺經(jīng)濟的條件下是正確的,在過剩經(jīng)濟下則可能是錯誤的,而這也正是現(xiàn)有的很多項目雖然通過了項目評估仍然無法實現(xiàn)預期效益的主要原因。因此,本文通過取消這種默認改進了傳統(tǒng)的投資評估方法,也使作為表外因素的品牌指標進入投資評估的體系成為了可能。本文提出了引入品牌的投資評估模型——IVB模型,并利用其分析的結(jié)果對現(xiàn)實中的投資進行了解釋。 第二,IVB模型的主要應用之一是在傳統(tǒng)銀行貸款評估體系中引入表外評估的內(nèi)容。在對金融機構(gòu)不良資產(chǎn)問題研究述評和回顧國內(nèi)外貸款評估現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對國內(nèi)貸款評估方法進行了反思。反思的內(nèi)容主要包含兩個方面,一是認為企業(yè)已有經(jīng)營業(yè)績不等于未來經(jīng)營業(yè)績；二是認為項目產(chǎn)量不等于項目銷量。而這兩個方面歸納起來就是傳統(tǒng)的投資評估方法忽略了項目的不確定性。因此,本文相應提出了引入項目不確定性分析的評估思想,并將項目的不確定性分為成本的不確定性和收益的不確定性。成本的不確定性具體可分為來自自然和人類社會的兩種不確定性,產(chǎn)生的原因是項目主體掌握的信息不足,其可以通過加強管理等手段予以克服,而這些內(nèi)容在傳統(tǒng)的項目評估中也已經(jīng)得到了反映；收益的不確定性來自于市場上消費者掌握信息的不足,它是消費者對企業(yè)項目產(chǎn)品選擇的不確定性,克服這種不確定性只能依靠加強企業(yè)及其產(chǎn)品的品牌。這樣,通過在傳統(tǒng)的項目貸款評估體系中引入IVB模型分析的內(nèi)容,可以實現(xiàn)項目貸款的表外評估,實現(xiàn)項目貸款評估體系的創(chuàng)新。之后本文通過闡述現(xiàn)有貸款評估的三個誤區(qū),解釋了中小企業(yè)貸款難的問題,并提出在中小企業(yè)貸款評估中引入IVB模型分析的思路。 第三,IVB模型的主要應用之二是在傳統(tǒng)證券投資評估模型基礎(chǔ)上引入品牌分析。對上市公司的價值分析是證券投資分析的基礎(chǔ),而這就涉及到如何正確認識公司的價值。已有的公司價值理論并沒有解釋清楚什么因素決定公司現(xiàn)金流的來源,也沒有指出公司能夠長期實現(xiàn)正現(xiàn)金流的基礎(chǔ)。針對已有理論對公司價值分析的不足,本文指出品牌是公司實現(xiàn)長期正現(xiàn)金流的根本保證,本文在解釋了品牌與公司價值關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上提出了引入品牌的證券投資評估模型——SVB模型,并由此得出結(jié)論,在既定的公司治理下,當某個公司股票滿足品牌指標中品牌信用度和品類終極度均為1且品類需求強度極大時,則可以將此時公司對應的產(chǎn)品或服務定義為品牌壟斷,擁有品牌壟斷的公司可以被認為具有持久的競爭優(yōu)勢。在對公司的品牌因素分析之后,參照公司價值及投資成本就可以最后確定股票組合的投資價值。利用SVB模型的分析結(jié)果解釋了巴菲特的具體投資案例,最后建立了更為直觀的“品牌——公司價格價值比”模型,并得出相應的結(jié)論,即品牌解釋了公司的可持續(xù)競爭優(yōu)勢,因此將品牌的分析引入公司價值評估模型有利于提高證券投資評估的準確性。 第四,IVB模型的應用之三是對并購投資中價值效應問題進行解釋。從并購價值創(chuàng)造的視角出發(fā),本文相應回顧了MM定理、最優(yōu)資本結(jié)構(gòu)理論、科斯定理和競爭優(yōu)勢理論,并依次指出了這些理論在解釋并購價值創(chuàng)造中的不足之處。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文提出了在并購價值評估中引入品牌分析的觀點,利用IVB模型的結(jié)論相應地建立了檢驗并購價值效應的理論模型——MVE模型。之后本文對并購從形式上進行了分類,并利用MVE模型對三種并購形式進行了相應解釋：縱向并購雖然主要好處在于可以降低企業(yè)間的交易費用,但隨著企業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)食物鏈規(guī)模的擴大,經(jīng)營風險也在增加,此時銷售終端消費者選擇的不確定性對企業(yè)經(jīng)營的威脅也會更大；橫向并購可以通過提高企業(yè)整體的品牌因素實現(xiàn)并購的價值正效應；混合并購成功率低的原因在于其提升企業(yè)整體品牌因素要比橫向并購更困難,而且混合并購分散企業(yè)經(jīng)營風險的初衷也與提升企業(yè)品牌優(yōu)勢的價值創(chuàng)造存在一定的矛盾。利用分析結(jié)論本文分析了我國企業(yè)海外并購多失敗的原因,排除制度因素,我國企業(yè)在海外并購中往往為了國際化而國際化,在并購企業(yè)目標的選擇中忽視了對企業(yè)實際的品牌因素的考察,而只是看重目標企業(yè)的低售價或所謂的高知名度。相比之下國外企業(yè)在收購國內(nèi)企業(yè)的過程中則由于特別注重了收購對象的品牌因素,因此其總體收購效果要好于國內(nèi)企業(yè)的海外并購。最后本文進一步提出了有關(guān)并購的“品牌——成本”二維模型。 綜觀本文,其實既是已有品牌經(jīng)濟學理論的拓展與應用,也是投資評估理論的創(chuàng)新。在投資評估模型中引入以選擇成本為基礎(chǔ)的品牌分析是本文的最大創(chuàng)新之處。總之,本文是在傳統(tǒng)投資評估的概念箱子中加入了“品牌”這個新的理念和范疇,并由此構(gòu)建了新的概念箱子,從這個意義上說,本文的研究豐富了投資評估的研究領(lǐng)域,為品牌經(jīng)濟學與投資評估學的融合與創(chuàng)新提供了理論基礎(chǔ),同時也對投資評估的實踐有一定的指導意義。
[Abstract]:This paper uses economic analysis method and analysis tool for existing investment evaluation method and system of economic analysis, through the element of choice cost based on the brand into the investment evaluation system and the specific evaluation method, construct a general investment evaluation framework.
Investment is the conversion of money into productive capital, and the circulation of commodities is the starting point of capital (Marx, 1867). With the improvement of social productivity, surplus economy has become a norm, at this time, the choice and purchase of consumers determines the final realization of the value of commodities, which also determines the success or failure of the investment. And the consumer's decision-making process is realized under limited conditions the selection process, cost optimization, cost not only determines the consumer choice efficiency and the production efficiency of the enterprise, it also further affect the efficiency of investment. The economic nature of brand lies in its consumer choice is to reduce the cost to exclusive category symbols. Brand investment appraisal model based analysis is the main object of this paper, its core content is studied in this paper. This research is all good With the introduction and evaluation of investment around the brand model (IVB model) and the core category.
The economic analysis on investment evaluation is from investment decision finally completed the "breathtaking leap", namely the investment value of the final realization of the study start, use choice cost analysis paradigm of brand economics, by analyzing the relationship between brand and consumer choice behavior, the brand will be introduced into the investment appraisal analysis which, in order to achieve investment evaluation for further precision. In other words, this paper will be based on choice cost "brand" as an important content analysis of investment appraisal, investment evaluation as the theoretical basis of the analysis, in turn the brand into the basic method of investment appraisal, bank loan assessment, portfolio assessment, mergers and acquisitions investment appraisal theory, general framework of investment evaluation after the introduction of brand science:
First, investment evaluation theory -- IVB model. The theory of brand economics for the traditional investment theory with cost analysis is the core of the brand economics theory by combining the paper, and carry out the analysis and improvement of the existing investment evaluation methods. This paper argues that the traditional investment evaluation methods in the analysis of financial statements the foundation, the main problem is that the default project output is equal to the sales volume, the default is correct in the shortage of economic conditions, in excess of the economy may be wrong, and this is also a lot of existing projects through the project evaluation still can not achieve the expected benefits of the main reasons. Therefore, the abolition of the default improved the traditional evaluation methods, also make the brand as a table of indicators and external factors into the investment appraisal system as possible in this paper. The introduction of the brand's investment evaluation model -- IVB model, on the reality of the investment and the analysis results are explained.
Second, one of the main application of the IVB model is introduced into the traditional bank loan evaluation system through the content. Based on the review of the financial institutions to review the status of non-performing assets and evaluation of domestic and foreign loans, the paper reflects on the evaluation method of domestic loans. Reflection mainly includes two aspects, one is the that the companies with good performance is not equal to the future performance; two is that the project output is not equal to sales. And these two aspects is summed up in the traditional investment evaluation method ignores the uncertainty of the project. Therefore, this paper proposed the introduction of the corresponding project uncertainty analysis of the assessment of thought, and the uncertainty of the project is divided into the cost of uncertainty and earnings uncertainty. The uncertainty of the cost of concrete can be divided into two kinds of uncertainty from nature and human society, causes Is the lack of project subject information, which can be overcome by means of strengthening management, and these contents in the traditional project evaluation has been reflected; the uncertainty of returns from the market and consumers to grasp the lack of information, it is the consumer to enterprise project choice uncertainty, this uncertainty can only be overcome depending on the enterprise and its product brand. In this way, by introducing the IVB model to analyze the content of the traditional project loan evaluation system, can realize the project loan evaluation sheet, realize the innovation of project loan evaluation system. This paper describes three errors after the existing loan assessment, explains the difficult problem of SME loans. And introduces IVB model analysis of the ideas in the small and medium-sized enterprise loan assessment.
Third, the main application of the IVB model of the two is the traditional portfolio assessment model on the basis of the introduction of brand analysis. Analysis of the value of listed companies is the basis of the analysis of securities investment, which involves how to correctly understand the value of the company. The existing theory of the value of the company and no sources explain what factors determine the cash flow of the company no, pointed out that the company can achieve long-term basis of positive cash flow. Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing theoretical analysis on the value of the company, this paper points out that the brand is the basic guarantee for the company long-term positive cash flow, this paper explains the basic in the relationship between the brand and the value of company introduced brand portfolio assessment model -- SVB model, and in conclusion, established in the corporate governance, when a company's stock to meet the brand credit degree and category brand index was 1 and the degree of ultimate category required For great strength, it can be a product or service that corresponds to the definition of brand monopoly, owned brand monopoly company can be considered to have a lasting competitive advantage. After analyzing the factors of the company's brand, according to the company value and the investment cost can finally determine the stock portfolio investment value analysis by SVB model. The results explain the specific investment case of Buffett, finally established a more intuitive "brand price value ratio model, and draws the corresponding conclusion, namely the brand to explain the company's sustainable competitive advantage, so the company will introduce the brand value evaluation model is helpful to improve the accuracy of portfolio assessment.
Fourth, the application of three IVB model is to explain the value of mergers and acquisitions investment effect. Starting from mergers and acquisitions create value perspective, this paper reviews the corresponding MM theorem, the optimal capital structure theory, Kos theorem and the theory of competitive advantage, and then pointed out the deficiencies of these theories in the interpretation of this value. On the basis, this paper proposes to introduce the brand perspective in mergers and acquisitions in the evaluation, using IVB model to establish the corresponding conclusion testing the theory of M & a value effect model MVE model. After the merger is classified from the form, and make the corresponding explanation to the three form of merger and acquisition by MVE model: vertical merger although the main advantage is that it can reduce transaction costs between enterprises, but with the expansion of enterprise scale industrial food chain, management risk is also increased, while sales of consumer terminal The uncertainty of business choice threat will be greater; horizontal mergers can improve the overall realization of enterprise brand's value is in effect; the overall brand promotion enterprise factors to be more difficult than the reason of the low success rate of horizontal mergers and acquisitions acquisitions decentralized business risk and intention promote the enterprise brand value creation contradiction exists. Using the analysis conclusion this paper analyzes the causes of China's overseas M & a failure, exclusion of institutional factors, Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions tend to internationalization and the internationalization of M & A in the choice of the target in the studies neglect the brand factors on the actual enterprise. But the value of target enterprise low price or so-called high visibility. Compared with foreign enterprises in the process of acquisition of domestic enterprises in the special note Brand heavy targets, so the overall effect is better than the acquisition of domestic enterprises overseas mergers and acquisitions. Finally, this paper further proposes a "brand - cost" two-dimensional model about mergers and acquisitions.
In this paper, both the existing brand economics theory development and application, but also investment evaluation theory innovation in investment evaluation model in the introduction of brand analysis to select the basis of cost is the biggest innovation of this paper. In short, this paper is in the traditional investment evaluation concept in the box to join the "brand" of the new concept and category, and thus build a new concept box, in this sense, this study enriches the research field of investment evaluation, provides a theoretical basis for the integration and innovation of brand economics and investment evaluation, but also the practice of investment evaluation has certain guiding significance.

【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2010
【分類號】：F224;F273.2

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本文編號：1517722