發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-16 14:48

【摘要】：關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施(Critical Infrastructure,CI)系統(tǒng)作為城市應(yīng)急管理的重點(diǎn),相應(yīng)的應(yīng)急能力需要得到有效保障。目前,相關(guān)研究主要關(guān)注于應(yīng)急能力的整體評(píng)估,但其操作工作量較大且不易于快速有效地識(shí)別應(yīng)急能力不足(Emergency Capability Shortage,ECS)。據(jù)此,闡述了案例驅(qū)動(dòng)的CI系統(tǒng)應(yīng)急能力不足評(píng)估方法,基于可用案例集和案例推理生成與約簡(jiǎn)應(yīng)急能力不足清單后,分別計(jì)算模糊ECS值與區(qū)間ECS值,并以應(yīng)急能力不足圖譜表示應(yīng)急能力不足的評(píng)估結(jié)果。該方法參照與利用歷史案例,有利于解決評(píng)估缺乏關(guān)聯(lián)性、針對(duì)性與預(yù)見(jiàn)性的問(wèn)題。最后,通過(guò)在H市的案例分析來(lái)驗(yàn)證該方法的可行性與有效性。
[Abstract]:As the key point of urban emergency management, critical Infrastructure (CI) system needs to be effectively guaranteed. At present, the related researches mainly focus on the overall assessment of emergency capability, but its operational workload is large and it is difficult to identify the emergency capability shortage (ECS) quickly and effectively. On the basis of this, this paper expounds the method of evaluating the emergency ability of CI system driven by case. Based on the case set and case reasoning, the fuzzy ECS value and the interval ECS value are calculated, respectively, after generating and reducing the short list of emergency response ability, the fuzzy ECS value and the interval ECS value are calculated respectively. At the same time, the assessment results of the insufficiency of emergency ability are expressed by the map of emergency capability deficiency. By referring to and using historical cases, this method is helpful to solve the problem of lack of relevance, pertinence and predictability of evaluation. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified by a case study in H City.
【作者單位】： 哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;中科信工程咨詢(北京)有限責(zé)任公司;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重大研究計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(91024028,91024031,91324018);國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(71172156,71473058)
【分類號(hào)】：C934
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本文編號(hào)：2126721