匯率預測及其對工商銀行財務(wù)績效影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-19 11:55
【摘要】：本文的研究目的是研究預測匯率的方法并且評估它們對中國工商銀行(ICBC)財務(wù)業(yè)績的影響,為實際應(yīng)用選擇方法和工具。匯率的確認在長期的金融市場的課題研究中一直是熱門話題,不但提出了許多相反的觀點,也提出了在他們的研究中用到的各種各樣的方法。當然,現(xiàn)階段貨幣市場的研究領(lǐng)域有很大的相關(guān)性,我們都知道匯率會影響到各個方面:國家、公司和我們每一個人。所以讓我們仔細看看匯率對一個大公司的影響。我們選擇了中國工商銀行。2015年,中國工商銀行(ICBC)已經(jīng)連續(xù)三年在福布斯全球2000強上市公司的排名中居于首位。本文是為了了解預測匯率的可能性在根本上是否存在的一個嘗試,以及使用獲得的結(jié)果改善特定公司的財務(wù)業(yè)績的可能性。本研究的重要性可以通過一下幾個具體原因來體現(xiàn):首先,本研究著眼于一個最神秘而有趣的世界貨幣——人民幣。世界上大量的個人和企業(yè)使用人民幣進行匯率計算,并且更多的人對人民幣匯率的調(diào)控十分感興趣。有很多傳言說中國銀行專門降低匯率以保持經(jīng)濟和國際貿(mào)易的穩(wěn)定。其次是已得到的研究結(jié)果的實際應(yīng)用。因此,本文不僅結(jié)合了理論依據(jù)和大量研究結(jié)論,還結(jié)合了對銀行的財務(wù)、管理和管控文件的實際研究和分析以及人民幣的匯率與某些外國貨幣的對比。第三,這項研究得到的或積極或消極的結(jié)果都可以成為未來相關(guān)工作的一個起點。所有方面和參數(shù)的詳細研究,關(guān)于研究進展、目標和取得的成果的理解和有效信息都是允許訪問獲取的。這項研究有兩個主要目的:利用預測方法分析匯率,并開發(fā)出匯率預測的應(yīng)用程序方法,以改善工行的財務(wù)業(yè)績。為了成功地實現(xiàn)這一目標提出了以下需要解決的主要任務(wù):考慮匯率的理論基礎(chǔ)以及他們的預測方法;研究中國貨幣市場的特殊性以及人民幣匯率影響因素;對進行中國工商銀行的金融單據(jù)進行財務(wù)和經(jīng)濟分析;運用技術(shù)分析,基本分析和統(tǒng)計分析的方法,結(jié)合計算機軟件的使用對匯率進行預測和分析;在對匯率預測的基礎(chǔ)上制定方法以提高工商銀行的財務(wù)業(yè)績。有自我調(diào)控的可能。如果在任一階段的匯率預測值與實際值相違背,將對可能的錯誤進行額外分析。這項研究的范圍是兩大主題。第一個主題涉及匯率及其預測。首先是選擇會對銀行的財務(wù)業(yè)績產(chǎn)生影響的貨幣組合�；谖覀兊难芯磕康倪x擇了三種貨幣組合:美元對人民幣,歐元對人民幣和歐元對美元。下一步是選擇影響人民幣和其他貨幣的因素。影響因素的選擇是在2015——2017年間貨幣情況的可追溯分析的基礎(chǔ)上進行的。第二個主題可以歸因于工商銀行的財務(wù)和管理活動,它的戰(zhàn)略和公司原則,產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)。計劃對公司2014——2016年的三年期間的財務(wù)報表進行分析。由此可以得出我們的全部研究計劃。在論文的第一章對研究的目標和任務(wù)進行了思考,確立了研究的意義和范圍,閱讀學習了國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻,分析了國外和俄羅斯學者的研究方法。第二章詳細研究了中國工商銀行的基本信息,如銀行的歷史、治理結(jié)構(gòu)、文化與戰(zhàn)略、產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)以及財務(wù)信息。甚至還研究了匯率的理論基礎(chǔ)、分類和特點,包括對人民幣匯率的特殊性給予了更多的關(guān)注。然后詳細研究了貨幣市場的整體預測方法。第三章對銀行的財務(wù)報表進行了全面的財務(wù)分析,包括縱向分析、縱向橫向分析、橫向分析和財務(wù)比率分析。財務(wù)分析師根據(jù)2014——2016年的資產(chǎn)負債表和利潤表的數(shù)據(jù)進行的。計算了在外匯市場的操作對銀行收入和利潤的影響,并討論了匯率預測能力對企業(yè)來說的利弊。考慮了基本分析、技術(shù)分析和統(tǒng)計分析等預測貨幣匯率的方法在實踐中的應(yīng)用。基本分析的目的在于從宏觀經(jīng)濟、政治和自然災(zāi)害三個方面分析國內(nèi)外不同事件之間的關(guān)系。宏觀經(jīng)濟指標包括GDP、利率、通貨膨脹、貿(mào)易平衡數(shù)據(jù)和失業(yè)率。政治因素通常認為是總統(tǒng)選舉,國家元首會議,G20峰會,以及中國人民銀行的政策。技術(shù)分析主要是基于對匯率的圖表特征的研究,在此選擇了兩種貨幣組合:美元對人民幣和歐元對美元。歐元對人民幣沒有選擇,是因為其外匯市場發(fā)展不足,并且經(jīng)理人的代表性有限。研究了這類技術(shù)分析方法在實踐中的應(yīng)用主要包括圖形化方法、通道法、循環(huán)法、層次法和基于特殊指標和振蕩器的方法等。對外匯匯率的統(tǒng)計分析的核心是尋找到選定匯率與其他貨幣匯率之間的相關(guān)性,或宏觀經(jīng)濟指標,或自然資源價格或其他可以用數(shù)字形式表示的過程。由此選擇并考慮了與貨幣對相關(guān)的主要指標:美元對美元和歐元對美元。計算相關(guān)系數(shù),建立散點圖并分析得到的數(shù)據(jù)。此外,還建立了基于特殊計算機程序使用的方法的前提條件。目前,這一研究方法涉及使用自學計算機技術(shù),如神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)。因此,程序在生成某些決策和結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上制定了特定的算法和模式。所有的分析都是在2015年至今這一時間段的數(shù)據(jù)計算出的所有用來預測匯率的方法對中國工商銀行財務(wù)業(yè)績的影響的基礎(chǔ)上進行的。如果我們考慮了基本的三種預測方法,每種預測方法都有其特定的特點。此外,選擇三種特定貨幣對也會導致某些僅與這些貨幣組合相關(guān)聯(lián)的特定模式。每一種預測方法都顯示出某些可能適用于這些匯率的工具。也就是說,利用它們可以使預測高度有效,與現(xiàn)實結(jié)果高度一致。最后得出結(jié)論匯率預測方法在實際生活中是可能進行實際應(yīng)用的。但必須記住,預測是一個復雜相互依存的過程,絕不可能100%消除風險,也不可100%對預測完全信任。因此,保持所有主要階段結(jié)合匯率預測的各種方法,就有可能做出最準確的預測,從而利用得到的結(jié)果提高中國工商銀行的凈利潤。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to study the method of forecasting exchange rate and to evaluate their influence on the financial performance of ICBC (ICBC) and select methods and tools for practical application. The confirmation of exchange rate has been a hot topic in the long-term research of financial market, not only put forward many contrary views, but also put forward a variety of methods used in their research. Of course, there is a great deal of relevance in the field of research in the monetary market at this stage, and we all know that exchange rates affect all aspects: countries, companies and each of us. So let's take a closer look at the impact of the exchange rate on a big company. We selected Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. In 2015, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) ranked the first in Forbes Global 2000 listed companies for three consecutive years. This paper is to find out whether there is an attempt to predict the possibility of exchange rate at all, and to improve the financial performance of a particular company using the results obtained. The importance of this study can be embodied by a few specific reasons: first, this study looks at the most mysterious and interesting world currency. Many individuals and businesses in the world use the yuan for exchange rate calculations, and more people are interested in the regulation of the yuan's exchange rate. There are many rumors that the Bank of China has a special interest in lowering the exchange rate to keep the economy and international trade stable. The second is the actual application of the results obtained. Therefore, this paper not only combines the theoretical basis and a lot of research conclusions, but also combines the actual research and analysis of the bank's financial, management and control documents, as well as the comparison between the exchange rate of the RMB and some foreign currencies. Third, either positive or negative results of the study could be a starting point for future work. Detailed studies on all aspects and parameters, understanding and effective information on progress, objectives and results achieved are accessible. The study has two main purposes: to analyze the exchange rate using the forecasting method and develop an application method for exchange rate forecasting to improve the financial performance of ICBC. In order to achieve this goal, the following main tasks need to be solved: the theoretical foundation of exchange rate and their forecasting methods; carrying out financial and economic analysis on the financial documents of ICBC; using the technical analysis, the basic analysis and the statistical analysis method to forecast and analyze the exchange rate in combination with the use of computer software; Develop a methodology on the basis of exchange rate forecasts to improve the financial performance of the ECB. There is a possibility of self-regulation. If the exchange rate prediction value at any stage is in violation of the actual value, additional analysis of possible errors will be made. The scope of the study is two major themes. The first topic relates to exchange rates and their projections. First is the monetary combination of choices that would have an impact on the financial performance of the bank. Based on our research, we chose three currencies: the US dollar against the renminbi and the euro against the yuan and the euro. The next step is to choose factors that affect the currency and other currencies. The choice of influencing factors is based on the traceability analysis of the currency situation between 2015 and 2017. The second theme could be attributed to the financial and management activities of the Government, its strategy and corporate principles, products and services. The plan will analyze the financial statements of the Company for the three-year period 2014 _ 2016. So we can get all our research plans. In the first chapter of the thesis, we think about the objectives and tasks of the research, establish the meaning and scope of the research, read the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and analyze the research methods of foreign and Russian scholars. The second chapter studies the basic information of ICBC, such as bank history, governance structure, culture and strategy, product and service as well as financial information. It also studies the theoretical basis, classification and characteristics of exchange rate, including more attention to the particularity of RMB exchange rate. Then the overall forecasting method of money market is studied in detail. The third chapter carries out a comprehensive financial analysis on the financial statements of the bank, including the longitudinal analysis, the vertical lateral analysis, the horizontal analysis and the financial ratio analysis. Financial analysts are based on data from the balance sheet and profit statement for 2014 _ 2016. The influence of operation on bank income and profit in foreign exchange market is calculated, and the advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate forecasting ability are discussed. Considering the basic analysis, technical analysis and statistical analysis and so on, the method of forecasting monetary exchange rate is applied in practice. The purpose of the basic analysis is to analyze the relationship between different events at home and abroad from the aspects of macroeconomics, politics and natural disasters. Macroeconomic indicators include GDP, interest rates, inflation, trade balance data and unemployment. Political factors are often seen as presidential elections, heads of state meetings, G20 summits and policies of the People's Bank of China. Technical analysis is based primarily on the study of the chart characteristics of exchange rates, where two currencies are selected: the dollar is against the yuan and the euro. The euro has no choice for the renminbi because its foreign exchange market is underdeveloped and the representation of managers is limited. The application of this method in practice mainly includes graphical method, channel method, cyclic method, hierarchical method and special index and oscillator based method. The core of the statistical analysis of the exchange rate is to find a correlation between the selected exchange rate and other monetary exchange rates, or macroeconomic indicators, or natural resource prices or other processes that can be expressed in digital form. The main index related to the currency pair was therefore selected and considered: the dollar against the United States dollar and the euro against the United States dollar. calculating the correlation coefficient, establishing the correlation coefficient and analyzing the obtained data. In addition, a prerequisite for a method based on the use of a special computer program is also established. At present, this approach involves the use of self-taught computer technology, such as a neural network. Thus, the program has developed specific algorithms and patterns on the basis of generating certain decisions and results. All analyses were carried out on the basis of the impact of the method of predicting exchange rates on the financial performance of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by 2015 to date. If we consider the basic three kinds of forecasting methods, each forecasting method has its specific characteristics. In addition, the selection of three specific currency pairs may also result in certain patterns associated with only these monetary combinations. Each forecasting method shows some tools that might apply to these rates. That is, using them can make the prediction highly effective and highly consistent with the actual results. Finally, it is concluded that the exchange rate forecasting method may be practically applied in real life. It must be borne in mind, however, that forecasting is a complex and interdependent process, by which no 100% risk is eliminated or 100% is fully trusted. Therefore, it is possible to make the most accurate prediction when maintaining all the main stages in combination with exchange rate forecasting, thus improving the net profit of ICBC by using the obtained results.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F832.33;F830.42
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to study the method of forecasting exchange rate and to evaluate their influence on the financial performance of ICBC (ICBC) and select methods and tools for practical application. The confirmation of exchange rate has been a hot topic in the long-term research of financial market, not only put forward many contrary views, but also put forward a variety of methods used in their research. Of course, there is a great deal of relevance in the field of research in the monetary market at this stage, and we all know that exchange rates affect all aspects: countries, companies and each of us. So let's take a closer look at the impact of the exchange rate on a big company. We selected Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. In 2015, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) ranked the first in Forbes Global 2000 listed companies for three consecutive years. This paper is to find out whether there is an attempt to predict the possibility of exchange rate at all, and to improve the financial performance of a particular company using the results obtained. The importance of this study can be embodied by a few specific reasons: first, this study looks at the most mysterious and interesting world currency. Many individuals and businesses in the world use the yuan for exchange rate calculations, and more people are interested in the regulation of the yuan's exchange rate. There are many rumors that the Bank of China has a special interest in lowering the exchange rate to keep the economy and international trade stable. The second is the actual application of the results obtained. Therefore, this paper not only combines the theoretical basis and a lot of research conclusions, but also combines the actual research and analysis of the bank's financial, management and control documents, as well as the comparison between the exchange rate of the RMB and some foreign currencies. Third, either positive or negative results of the study could be a starting point for future work. Detailed studies on all aspects and parameters, understanding and effective information on progress, objectives and results achieved are accessible. The study has two main purposes: to analyze the exchange rate using the forecasting method and develop an application method for exchange rate forecasting to improve the financial performance of ICBC. In order to achieve this goal, the following main tasks need to be solved: the theoretical foundation of exchange rate and their forecasting methods; carrying out financial and economic analysis on the financial documents of ICBC; using the technical analysis, the basic analysis and the statistical analysis method to forecast and analyze the exchange rate in combination with the use of computer software; Develop a methodology on the basis of exchange rate forecasts to improve the financial performance of the ECB. There is a possibility of self-regulation. If the exchange rate prediction value at any stage is in violation of the actual value, additional analysis of possible errors will be made. The scope of the study is two major themes. The first topic relates to exchange rates and their projections. First is the monetary combination of choices that would have an impact on the financial performance of the bank. Based on our research, we chose three currencies: the US dollar against the renminbi and the euro against the yuan and the euro. The next step is to choose factors that affect the currency and other currencies. The choice of influencing factors is based on the traceability analysis of the currency situation between 2015 and 2017. The second theme could be attributed to the financial and management activities of the Government, its strategy and corporate principles, products and services. The plan will analyze the financial statements of the Company for the three-year period 2014 _ 2016. So we can get all our research plans. In the first chapter of the thesis, we think about the objectives and tasks of the research, establish the meaning and scope of the research, read the relevant research literature at home and abroad, and analyze the research methods of foreign and Russian scholars. The second chapter studies the basic information of ICBC, such as bank history, governance structure, culture and strategy, product and service as well as financial information. It also studies the theoretical basis, classification and characteristics of exchange rate, including more attention to the particularity of RMB exchange rate. Then the overall forecasting method of money market is studied in detail. The third chapter carries out a comprehensive financial analysis on the financial statements of the bank, including the longitudinal analysis, the vertical lateral analysis, the horizontal analysis and the financial ratio analysis. Financial analysts are based on data from the balance sheet and profit statement for 2014 _ 2016. The influence of operation on bank income and profit in foreign exchange market is calculated, and the advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate forecasting ability are discussed. Considering the basic analysis, technical analysis and statistical analysis and so on, the method of forecasting monetary exchange rate is applied in practice. The purpose of the basic analysis is to analyze the relationship between different events at home and abroad from the aspects of macroeconomics, politics and natural disasters. Macroeconomic indicators include GDP, interest rates, inflation, trade balance data and unemployment. Political factors are often seen as presidential elections, heads of state meetings, G20 summits and policies of the People's Bank of China. Technical analysis is based primarily on the study of the chart characteristics of exchange rates, where two currencies are selected: the dollar is against the yuan and the euro. The euro has no choice for the renminbi because its foreign exchange market is underdeveloped and the representation of managers is limited. The application of this method in practice mainly includes graphical method, channel method, cyclic method, hierarchical method and special index and oscillator based method. The core of the statistical analysis of the exchange rate is to find a correlation between the selected exchange rate and other monetary exchange rates, or macroeconomic indicators, or natural resource prices or other processes that can be expressed in digital form. The main index related to the currency pair was therefore selected and considered: the dollar against the United States dollar and the euro against the United States dollar. calculating the correlation coefficient, establishing the correlation coefficient and analyzing the obtained data. In addition, a prerequisite for a method based on the use of a special computer program is also established. At present, this approach involves the use of self-taught computer technology, such as a neural network. Thus, the program has developed specific algorithms and patterns on the basis of generating certain decisions and results. All analyses were carried out on the basis of the impact of the method of predicting exchange rates on the financial performance of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China by 2015 to date. If we consider the basic three kinds of forecasting methods, each forecasting method has its specific characteristics. In addition, the selection of three specific currency pairs may also result in certain patterns associated with only these monetary combinations. Each forecasting method shows some tools that might apply to these rates. That is, using them can make the prediction highly effective and highly consistent with the actual results. Finally, it is concluded that the exchange rate forecasting method may be practically applied in real life. It must be borne in mind, however, that forecasting is a complex and interdependent process, by which no 100% risk is eliminated or 100% is fully trusted. Therefore, it is possible to make the most accurate prediction when maintaining all the main stages in combination with exchange rate forecasting, thus improving the net profit of ICBC by using the obtained results.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6;F832.33;F830.42
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