【摘要】：隨著國(guó)民個(gè)人收入的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)和理財(cái)觀念的普及,越來(lái)越多的人通過(guò)證券市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行投資理財(cái)。我國(guó)的股市投資者人數(shù)已經(jīng)成為世界第一,其中個(gè)人投資者占到了 80%以上。由于個(gè)人投資者對(duì)于信息的取得渠道比較有限,很多人都罔顧投資原則,而選擇投機(jī),盲目追逐熱點(diǎn)股、政策股、消息股,因此導(dǎo)致財(cái)產(chǎn)受損。文化傳媒行業(yè)由于受政策、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)發(fā)展等多重利好因素的影響也一直是股民投資的熱點(diǎn),但文化傳媒行業(yè)股票在2015年下半年發(fā)生跳水式下跌后就一蹶不振,始終保持在低點(diǎn),打消了很多人的投資念頭。本文中先通過(guò)對(duì)整個(gè)行業(yè)面臨的外部大環(huán)境進(jìn)行PEST分析,綜合考慮我國(guó)政策環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、社會(huì)環(huán)境、技術(shù)環(huán)境對(duì)文化傳媒產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響,同時(shí)對(duì)我國(guó)當(dāng)前的文化傳媒行業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及發(fā)展方向進(jìn)行分析,得出行業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)今后的主要?jiǎng)酉?以及整個(gè)文化傳媒行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)看好的結(jié)論。在確定整個(gè)行業(yè)仍屬于朝陽(yáng)行業(yè),大有潛力可挖之后,從我國(guó)上市的文化傳媒企業(yè)中選擇樣本企業(yè)進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的績(jī)效分析,進(jìn)行更加細(xì)致的投資對(duì)象篩選。本文經(jīng)過(guò)對(duì)多種企業(yè)績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)方法的對(duì)比后,結(jié)合實(shí)際情況,選擇了主成分分析法和DEA法相結(jié)合的方法全方位的對(duì)樣本企業(yè)進(jìn)行績(jī)效分析。其中在使用主成分分析法時(shí)選擇使用樣本企業(yè)2016年第四季度的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)作為支撐,這是距當(dāng)前投資選擇最近的會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表區(qū)間,可以詳細(xì)了解當(dāng)前企業(yè)的相關(guān)狀況,方便投資者作出該時(shí)間點(diǎn)上最合適的選擇。但由于文化傳媒產(chǎn)業(yè)的特殊性,在一個(gè)較短的時(shí)間段中不確定因素的影響更大,因此使用DEA方法對(duì)樣本企業(yè)的2013-2015三年的績(jī)效進(jìn)行評(píng)估,了解企業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)營(yíng)能力以及自我糾正能力,兩個(gè)方法相結(jié)合,長(zhǎng)期與短期績(jī)效評(píng)價(jià)相結(jié)合能更科學(xué)的對(duì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行分析。使用主成分分析時(shí)選擇的主要財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)有:反映企業(yè)短期償債能力的——流動(dòng)比率、速動(dòng)比率:反映盈利能力的——凈資產(chǎn)收益率、總資產(chǎn)利潤(rùn)率、營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率;反映企業(yè)成長(zhǎng)能力的——總資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)率、凈利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率;反映企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)能力的——總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率、應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率;以及代表行業(yè)特殊性的無(wú)形資產(chǎn)和商譽(yù)。經(jīng)過(guò)分析之后可以清晰的看到各企業(yè)的綜合得分、排名。使用DEA分析對(duì)企業(yè)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的最主要生產(chǎn)單元的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)能力進(jìn)行評(píng)估,使用的投入指標(biāo)——總資產(chǎn)、應(yīng)付職工薪酬、營(yíng)業(yè)成本;產(chǎn)出指標(biāo)——每股收益、凈利潤(rùn)、營(yíng)業(yè)收入。綜合的考量了在生產(chǎn)時(shí)投入的人力、財(cái)力,同時(shí)選取的指標(biāo)是2013-2015年度三年內(nèi)的財(cái)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù),這樣可以在一個(gè)相對(duì)較長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間段中對(duì)企業(yè)的整體經(jīng)營(yíng)能力進(jìn)行評(píng)估,根據(jù)得到的相關(guān)績(jī)效值數(shù)據(jù),分析在三年中企業(yè)各方面的效率變化,選擇綜合效率表現(xiàn)較好的企業(yè)作為投資對(duì)象。通過(guò)整體+個(gè)體的分析,希望能為股市投資者,尤其是個(gè)人投資者提供切實(shí)可信的投資建議以供參考。
[Abstract]:With the steady growth of the national income and the popularity of the concept of financial management, more and more people invest and manage their finances through the securities market. The number of investors in the stock market in China has become the first in the world, and the number of individual investors accounts for more than 80%. The cultural media industry has always been a hot spot for investors due to the influence of multiple favorable factors such as policy, economic and technological development. However, the cultural media industry stocks failed to recover after a diving decline in the second half of 2015. In this paper, through PEST analysis of the external environment facing the whole industry, we consider the impact of the policy environment, economic environment, social environment and technological environment on the cultural media industry in China. At the same time, we also discuss the current situation and development direction of the cultural media industry in China. After confirming that the whole industry still belongs to the sunrise industry and has great potential to be tapped, we select the sample enterprises from the listed cultural and media enterprises to conduct a detailed performance analysis and make a more detailed investment target. After comparing the performance evaluation methods of various enterprises, this paper chooses the method of principal component analysis and DEA to analyze the performance of the sample enterprises in an all-round way. The most recent accounting statement interval from the current investment choice can help investors make the most appropriate choice at this point in time. However, due to the particularity of the cultural media industry, uncertainties in a shorter period of time have a greater impact, so the DEA method is used to sample enterprises in 2013-2015. Three-year performance evaluation, to understand the long-term operating capacity of enterprises and self-correction ability, the combination of two methods, long-term and short-term performance evaluation can be more scientific analysis of enterprises. Rate: reflecting profitability - net asset yield, total asset profit margin, operating profit margin; reflecting the growth ability of the enterprise - total asset growth rate, net profit growth rate; reflecting the ability of the enterprise - total asset turnover rate, inventory turnover rate, receivable turnover rate; and on behalf of the industry particularity of intangible assets and goodwill. After the analysis, we can clearly see the comprehensive score and ranking of the enterprises. Using DEA analysis to evaluate the production and operation ability of the most important production units for a long time, we use input indicators - Total assets, salaries payable to employees, operating costs; output indicators - earnings per share, net profit, operating income. Considering the manpower and financial resources invested in production, and choosing the financial reporting data for the three years from 2013 to 2015, this method can evaluate the overall operating capacity of the enterprise in a relatively long period of time. According to the relevant performance value data, it can analyze the efficiency changes of various aspects of the enterprise in the three years and select the comprehensive. Through the analysis of the whole and individual, we hope to provide credible investment suggestions for stock market investors, especially individual investors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：G124

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本文編號(hào)：2219951