【摘要】：中央啟動的4萬億投資拉動內(nèi)需應(yīng)對國際金融危機(jī)的戰(zhàn)略方針,對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)止滑提速、在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中率先實(shí)現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇起到了巨大的作用。但是,大規(guī)模投資在促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時,必然會帶來一定的通脹壓力。本文通過模型分析預(yù)測,到2011年的二、三季度,CPI增速將出現(xiàn)8%—10%的峰值,并將在一個相當(dāng)長的時期內(nèi)保持小幅振蕩前行趨勢,并存在使地方過度投資和產(chǎn)能過剩問題的隱患。要科學(xué)合理利用4萬億投資的投資乘數(shù)和引致因素產(chǎn)生的超大規(guī)模投資,消除通脹隱患,必須通過工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的聯(lián)動和三次產(chǎn)業(yè)互動,保障產(chǎn)業(yè)、民生和基礎(chǔ)并重,加強(qiáng)預(yù)警機(jī)制建設(shè)等有效化解通脹壓力,確保經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長。
[Abstract]:The strategic policy of 4 trillion investment initiated by the central government to stimulate domestic demand to deal with the international financial crisis has played a great role in the recovery of China's economy and taking the lead in achieving recovery in the global economy. However, large-scale investment in promoting economic development at the same time, will inevitably bring certain inflationary pressure. Through model analysis, this paper forecasts that CPI growth will peak at 8% 鈮，

本文編號：2493001