【摘要】：本文主要針對(duì)目前嚴(yán)重的通貨膨脹問題進(jìn)行研究,根據(jù)理論和實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果提出一些政策建議來達(dá)到抑制通貨膨脹的效果。本文主要內(nèi)容包括回顧和評(píng)述目前已有的研究,在此基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)外部失衡對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響機(jī)制進(jìn)行理論分析。然后對(duì)我國(guó)目前的外部失衡狀況和通貨膨脹狀況進(jìn)行描述,采用統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、相關(guān)分析初步描述它們之間的關(guān)系。再進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、建立VAR模型、分析脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解,考察了2000年至2010年外部失衡對(duì)中國(guó)通貨膨脹的影響。最后建立分布滯后模型來分析外部失衡對(duì)通貨膨脹的短期和長(zhǎng)期影響。 格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)簡(jiǎn)單地證實(shí)了外部失衡加劇了中國(guó)的通貨膨脹,結(jié)果顯示外匯儲(chǔ)備和實(shí)際有效匯率是居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)的格蘭杰原因,而且統(tǒng)計(jì)上非常顯著。VAR模型結(jié)果顯示,外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平產(chǎn)生正面沖擊,且有一定的時(shí)滯,在第3個(gè)月時(shí)沖擊達(dá)到最大值。在方差分解中,外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平變動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)度也是較大的,達(dá)到6.12%。外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量會(huì)產(chǎn)生即刻的沖擊,也說明外匯儲(chǔ)備通過改變流通中的貨幣量來影響通貨膨脹。實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,時(shí)滯較長(zhǎng)。在方差分解中,它的貢獻(xiàn)度為4.16%。而在分布滯后模型中,價(jià)格水平對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備的短期彈性為0.0190,長(zhǎng)期彈性為0.0809,調(diào)節(jié)系數(shù)為0.2349。而貿(mào)易順差和實(shí)際有效匯率的短期彈性系數(shù)不顯著,調(diào)節(jié)系數(shù)分別只有0.0329和0.0208,調(diào)節(jié)很緩慢。貿(mào)易順差的短期和長(zhǎng)期彈性系數(shù)為0.0273和0.8298,實(shí)際有效匯率的短期和長(zhǎng)期彈性系數(shù)為0.0002和0.0096。針對(duì)得到的實(shí)證結(jié)果,提出了一些從外部失衡角度抑制通貨膨脹的措施。通過進(jìn)出口結(jié)構(gòu)和資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整來減少外匯儲(chǔ)備,在維持匯率穩(wěn)定的前提下增強(qiáng)匯率彈性來減少對(duì)通貨膨脹的壓力。
[Abstract]:According to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations to achieve the effect of reducing inflation. The main contents of this paper include reviewing and reviewing the existing research, on the basis of which, the influence mechanism of external imbalance on inflation is analyzed theoretically. Then, the paper describes the external imbalance and inflation in China, and uses statistical analysis and correlation analysis to describe the relationship between them. Then Granger causality test is carried out, VAR model is established, impulse response function and variance decomposition are analyzed, and the influence of external imbalance on inflation in China from 2000 to 2010 is investigated. Finally, a distributed lag model is established to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of external imbalances on inflation. The Granger causality test simply confirms that external imbalances exacerbate inflation in China. The results show that foreign exchange reserves and real effective exchange rates are the Granger reasons for the consumer price index. The results of VAR model show that the foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on the consumer price level, and there is a certain time lag, and the shock reaches the maximum value in the third month. In variance decomposition, the contribution of foreign exchange reserves to changes in consumer price levels is also large, reaching 6.12%. Foreign exchange reserves will have an immediate impact on the money supply, which also shows that foreign exchange reserves affect inflation by changing the amount of money in circulation. The real effective exchange rate has a negative impact on the consumer price level, and the time lag is longer. In variance decomposition, its contribution is 4.16%. In the distributed lag model, the short-term elasticity of price level to foreign exchange reserves is 0.0190, the long-term elasticity is 0.0809, and the adjustment coefficient is 0.2349. But the short-term elasticity coefficient of trade surplus and real effective exchange rate is not significant, the adjustment coefficient is only 0.0329 and 0.0208 respectively, the adjustment is very slow. The short-and long-term elastic coefficients of the trade surplus were 0.0273 and 0.8298, and the short-and long-term elastic coefficients of the real effective exchange rate were 0.0002 and 0.0096. According to the empirical results, this paper puts forward some measures to restrain inflation from the angle of external imbalance. The foreign exchange reserves can be reduced by adjusting the import and export structure and the scale and structure of capital flows, and the exchange rate elasticity will be enhanced to reduce the inflationary pressure on the premise of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5;F832.6;F224

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