我國黃金價格影響因素實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-02-13 20:29
【摘要】：兼具商品屬性和金融屬性于一身的黃金在20世紀70年代之前價格一直比較穩(wěn)定,由于不再與美元掛鉤,其價格就開始發(fā)生劇烈的變動,由70年代初的30美元每盎司一直漲到2011年1900美元每盎司,巨大的價差引起各方廣泛關注。此外,由于黃金的特殊性,也使得國內外諸多學者對黃金價格的變動進行實證和理論研究。我國從最近幾年以來,不論是黃金產量還是黃金需求量都處于世界前列,因而對我國黃金價格影響因素的研究就具有一定的理論和實踐意義。 本文從黃金的發(fā)展狀況出發(fā),重點研究了國際金價和國內金價的影響因素,并對我國黃金價格影響因素進行了實證研究。 本文共分五章,第一章是緒論,主要介紹了研究的背景、思路、研究方法以及創(chuàng)新點等。第二章在分析了國際金價和國內金價關系的基礎上了,引出國際金價的定價機制以及國內黃金市場的發(fā)展狀況,進而分析國內的研究現狀。第三章主要是國際金價和國內金價影響因素的理論分析,綜合國內外的相關研究,黃金價格主要和黃金的供求、美元、石油、CPI、宏觀經濟狀況以及一些其他的因素有關。第四章主要針對我國黃金價格影響因素所做的實證研究,通過分析選取合適的指標,先對指標進行ADF檢驗、共線性檢驗、Granger因果檢驗,然后選取合適的指標建立VAR模型,繼而對模型進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗,以確定模型的準確性。第五章是結論和建議,實證研究表明國內黃金價格除受到自身價格的影響之外,還同匯率、外匯儲備、GDP以及企業(yè)家景氣信心指數有關。通過對這四個指標的Granger因果檢驗,我們能夠進一步確認這些指標和黃金價格之間是否具有直接的因果關系。本章在最后針對我國不具備黃金定價權的問題,分析了國際國內的條件,為我國謀求黃金定價權提出了自己的建議。 本文通過對我國黃金價格影響因素的實證研究,確定了影響我國黃金價格的幾個主要因素,同時對我國黃金話語權也給出了相應的建議。由于黃金價格影響因素的復雜性,再加上我國的特殊國情,本文的研究還有待進一步的深入。此外,本文還對今后的研究方向做了一些展望,例如我國黃金儲備的比例問題,以及如何更好的規(guī)范和發(fā)展我國的黃金市場,為我國謀求黃金定價權提供更有利的條件。
[Abstract]:Gold, which has both commodity and financial attributes, remained relatively stable until the 1970s. Since it is no longer pegged to the dollar, its price has begun to change dramatically. From $30 a troy ounce in the early 1970s to $1900 an ounce in 2011, the huge spread has attracted widespread attention. In addition, because of the particularity of gold, many scholars at home and abroad have carried out empirical and theoretical research on the change of gold price. In recent years, both gold production and gold demand have been in the forefront of the world, so the study on the factors affecting the gold price in China has a certain theoretical and practical significance. Starting from the development of gold, this paper focuses on the influence factors of international and domestic gold prices, and makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of gold prices in China. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is an introduction, mainly introduces the research background, ideas, research methods and innovation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between international gold price and domestic gold price, the second chapter introduces the pricing mechanism of international gold price and the development of domestic gold market, and then analyzes the current situation of domestic research. The third chapter mainly analyzes the influence factors of international gold price and domestic gold price, synthesizes the domestic and foreign related research, the gold price is mainly related to the gold supply and demand, the dollar, the oil, the CPI, macroeconomic situation and some other factors. The fourth chapter mainly focuses on the empirical research on the influencing factors of gold price in China. By analyzing and selecting the appropriate indicators, the author carries out the ADF test, the co-linear test, the Granger causality test, and then selects the appropriate indicators to establish the VAR model. Then the model is tested on the stability to determine the accuracy of the model. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. The empirical study shows that the domestic gold price is not only influenced by its own price, but also related to the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, GDP and entrepreneur confidence index. Through the Granger causality test of these four indicators, we can further confirm whether there is a direct causal relationship between these indicators and the gold price. At the end of this chapter, aiming at the problem that our country does not have gold pricing power, we analyze the international and domestic conditions, and put forward some suggestions for our country to seek gold pricing power. Based on the empirical study of the factors affecting the gold price in China, this paper determines the main factors that affect the gold price in China, and gives some corresponding suggestions on the right to speak of gold in China. Because of the complexity of the influence factors of gold price and the special situation of our country, the research of this paper needs to be further studied. In addition, this paper also makes some prospects for future research, such as the proportion of gold reserves in China, and how to better regulate and develop the gold market in China to provide more favorable conditions for our country to seek gold pricing power.
【學位授予單位】：天津師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.54;F426.32;F224
本文編號：2421845
[Abstract]:Gold, which has both commodity and financial attributes, remained relatively stable until the 1970s. Since it is no longer pegged to the dollar, its price has begun to change dramatically. From $30 a troy ounce in the early 1970s to $1900 an ounce in 2011, the huge spread has attracted widespread attention. In addition, because of the particularity of gold, many scholars at home and abroad have carried out empirical and theoretical research on the change of gold price. In recent years, both gold production and gold demand have been in the forefront of the world, so the study on the factors affecting the gold price in China has a certain theoretical and practical significance. Starting from the development of gold, this paper focuses on the influence factors of international and domestic gold prices, and makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of gold prices in China. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is an introduction, mainly introduces the research background, ideas, research methods and innovation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between international gold price and domestic gold price, the second chapter introduces the pricing mechanism of international gold price and the development of domestic gold market, and then analyzes the current situation of domestic research. The third chapter mainly analyzes the influence factors of international gold price and domestic gold price, synthesizes the domestic and foreign related research, the gold price is mainly related to the gold supply and demand, the dollar, the oil, the CPI, macroeconomic situation and some other factors. The fourth chapter mainly focuses on the empirical research on the influencing factors of gold price in China. By analyzing and selecting the appropriate indicators, the author carries out the ADF test, the co-linear test, the Granger causality test, and then selects the appropriate indicators to establish the VAR model. Then the model is tested on the stability to determine the accuracy of the model. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. The empirical study shows that the domestic gold price is not only influenced by its own price, but also related to the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, GDP and entrepreneur confidence index. Through the Granger causality test of these four indicators, we can further confirm whether there is a direct causal relationship between these indicators and the gold price. At the end of this chapter, aiming at the problem that our country does not have gold pricing power, we analyze the international and domestic conditions, and put forward some suggestions for our country to seek gold pricing power. Based on the empirical study of the factors affecting the gold price in China, this paper determines the main factors that affect the gold price in China, and gives some corresponding suggestions on the right to speak of gold in China. Because of the complexity of the influence factors of gold price and the special situation of our country, the research of this paper needs to be further studied. In addition, this paper also makes some prospects for future research, such as the proportion of gold reserves in China, and how to better regulate and develop the gold market in China to provide more favorable conditions for our country to seek gold pricing power.
【學位授予單位】：天津師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.54;F426.32;F224
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