【摘要】：本文梳理了名義匯率直接和間接影響貿易差額的各種可能性,指出貿易差額可能受名義匯率的影響,但這種影響是不確定的。本文采集了2005年7月到2008年12月月度數據,運用協(xié)整-誤差修正方法檢驗人民幣/美元名義匯率與中美雙邊貿易差額的關系。協(xié)整方程估計結果顯示中國對美國貿易順差與人民幣/美元名義匯率成反向關系,且參數估計顯著。誤差修正模型顯示名義匯率不是中美貿易差額的原因。由于協(xié)整檢驗、誤差修正模型都沒有發(fā)現名義匯率與貿易差額有正向關系,說明中國政府無法依靠"操縱人民幣匯率",令人民幣低估以擴大凈出口。
[Abstract]:This paper combs the various possibilities of direct and indirect influence of nominal exchange rate on trade balance, and points out that trade balance may be affected by nominal exchange rate, but this influence is uncertain. This paper collects monthly data from July 2005 to December 2008 and tests the relationship between the nominal RMB / US dollar exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance between China and the United States by using the co-integration error correction method. The results of cointegration equation show that China's trade surplus with the United States is inversely related to the nominal exchange rate of RMB / US dollar, and the parameter estimates are significant. The error correction model shows that nominal exchange rate is not the cause of Sino-American trade balance. As a result of cointegration tests, the error correction models have not found a positive relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the trade balance, indicating that the Chinese government cannot rely on "manipulating the RMB exchange rate" to make the RMB undervalued in order to expand net exports.
【作者單位】： 對外經濟貿易大學經濟學系;對外經濟貿易大學數量經濟學系;
【基金】：“新世紀優(yōu)秀人才支持計劃”(資助編號NCET-08-0762) 教育部社科研究規(guī)劃基金項目(09YJA790037)支持
【分類號】：F224;F832.6

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