發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-30 12:31

【摘要】：本文利用國(guó)家信息中心可計(jì)算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)定量分析了人民幣升值對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的短期影響。為了比較一次性升值和階梯性升值政策影響的差異,對(duì)兩種升值方式,一種是假設(shè)2010年人民幣一次升值3%;另一種方式是階梯性升值,假設(shè)從2010到2012年,每年升值1%的影響分別進(jìn)行了測(cè)算分析。結(jié)果表明,一次升值3%會(huì)使2010年我國(guó)出口相比基準(zhǔn)情景下降4.08%,GDP減少0.27%,就業(yè)下降0.52%,CPI下降1.17%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the short-term impact of RMB appreciation on the real economy is quantitatively analyzed by using the National Information Center Computable General equilibrium Model (SIC-GE). In order to compare the effects of one-off appreciation and ladder appreciation, the two ways of appreciation are assumed to be three yuan appreciation in 2010, and the other is ladder appreciation, from 2010 to 2012. The impact of annual appreciation of 1% were measured and analyzed. The results show that a rise of 3% in 2010 will reduce China's exports by 4.08%, GDP by 0.27%, employment by 0.52% and CPI by 1.17% compared with the benchmark scenario in 2010.
【作者單位】： 國(guó)家信息中心經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)部;清華大學(xué)經(jīng)管學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家信息中心發(fā)展基金 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(編號(hào):70473043)支持
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F224

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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本文編號(hào)：2213074