我國金融業(yè)投入產(chǎn)出關(guān)聯(lián)及效率分析
發(fā)布時間:2018-07-31 14:54
【摘要】:金融是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)的核心,金融業(yè)是經(jīng)營金融產(chǎn)品的特殊服務(wù)行業(yè),以其獨(dú)特的金融產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)通過市場體系將社會資源在各產(chǎn)業(yè)之間進(jìn)行投入、產(chǎn)出及優(yōu)化配置的重要行業(yè)。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和金融一體化的推進(jìn),如何充分發(fā)揮金融業(yè)的核心作用,促進(jìn)金融業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的和諧發(fā)展已經(jīng)成為世界各國關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。 改革開放以來,我國金融業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,國際地位不斷提升,對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展做出了重要貢獻(xiàn),但是其產(chǎn)業(yè)組織形式和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)仍存在一定的缺陷,我國金融業(yè)的核心競爭力和整體實(shí)力仍然不夠強(qiáng)大。目前,我國金融業(yè)的發(fā)展水平與全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的地位極不相符,在轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式、追求內(nèi)涵發(fā)展的過程中,金融業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的核心產(chǎn)業(yè),其在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各產(chǎn)業(yè)中的地位如何,與各產(chǎn)業(yè)具有怎樣的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系及變化趨勢,對經(jīng)濟(jì)的帶動作用如何,效率具有怎樣的動態(tài)變化趨勢,影響效率的因素主要有哪些,這些問題逐漸被政府和學(xué)術(shù)界所關(guān)注。要真正發(fā)揮金融業(yè)的核心作用,使之成為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),必須首先了解金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)特性,明晰金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)地位及效率的動態(tài)變化趨勢。本文依據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)和效率理論,利用金融相關(guān)率、貢獻(xiàn)率和貢獻(xiàn)度等相關(guān)指標(biāo)在對我國金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)和布局進(jìn)行充分分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用投入產(chǎn)出模型對我國金融業(yè)與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)和各細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析,并進(jìn)行了動態(tài)比較;利用DEA方法測算了金融業(yè)靜態(tài)的基本效率,并利用基于DEA的Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)測算了金融業(yè)的動態(tài)效率;通過構(gòu)建Panel Data模型,利用最小二乘法分析了影響全要素生產(chǎn)率變動的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素,為認(rèn)識金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)地位,促進(jìn)金融業(yè)健康發(fā)展提供參考。 本文共分6章,具體內(nèi)容如下: 第1章緒論。介紹本文的選題背景與意義;對金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)、金融業(yè)的效率、金融業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展關(guān)系等的研究狀況進(jìn)行了評述;并介紹了本文的研究框架、主要內(nèi)容與研究方法。 第2章產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)、效率及金融業(yè)相關(guān)理論。本章是全文的理論基礎(chǔ),首先明確產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)的內(nèi)涵,介紹產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)的主要方式,對產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)理論的形成與發(fā)展進(jìn)行梳理,并介紹了投入產(chǎn)出表的基本結(jié)構(gòu)、平衡關(guān)系及列昂惕夫的經(jīng)典投入產(chǎn)出模型;然后,介紹效率的含義,概括總結(jié)效率理論的形成與發(fā)展情況,闡述生產(chǎn)率的含義及相關(guān)理論。最后,明確金融業(yè)的定義及產(chǎn)業(yè)特征,并對金融發(fā)展的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行概括總結(jié)。 第3章我國金融業(yè)的規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)及國際比較。首先,介紹了我國金融業(yè)的發(fā)展演進(jìn)歷程,對各階段的特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)。其次,對我國金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)布局進(jìn)行分析,選取貨幣深度、金融業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)率、金融業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)度和金融相關(guān)率等主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)衡量目前我國金融業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,分析金融業(yè)的發(fā)展的特點(diǎn)及對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用和影響。最后,將我國金融業(yè)與主要發(fā)達(dá)國家和新興市場國家進(jìn)行比較,分析其優(yōu)勢和差距。 第4章我國金融業(yè)與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)分析。本章采用投入產(chǎn)出分析的方法,利用1997年、2002年和2007年全國的投入產(chǎn)出表,對金融業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)聯(lián)進(jìn)行縱向動態(tài)分析。首先,依據(jù)研究的需要對三張投入產(chǎn)出表的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的整理。然后,根據(jù)整理后的投入產(chǎn)出簡表,通過金融業(yè)的投入結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu),分析金融業(yè)與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的直接依存度,發(fā)現(xiàn)金融業(yè)與第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的直接依存度最高。通過測算完全消耗系數(shù),分析金融業(yè)與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的完全依存度,結(jié)果顯示,我國金融業(yè)與第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的完全依存度最高,金融業(yè)對第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的前向拉動作用最大,對金融業(yè)自身的后向推動作用最大;通過對金融業(yè)的中間投入率和中間需求率的測算,定量分析金融業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位,結(jié)果顯示,我國金融業(yè)屬于中間產(chǎn)品型基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè),其中間投入率低,是高附加值的產(chǎn)業(yè),對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的帶動作用還不大;金融業(yè)的中間需求率高,對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展具有較大的制約性。本章還對金融業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)波及效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析,采用感應(yīng)度系數(shù)分析金融業(yè)受其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的波及程度,利用影響力系數(shù)分析金融業(yè)對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的波及程度,利用生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)系數(shù)測算各最終需求項目(如消費(fèi)、投資、出口等)對金融業(yè)的生產(chǎn)誘導(dǎo)作用的程度,利用生產(chǎn)的最終依賴度系數(shù)測算金融業(yè)的生產(chǎn)對最終需求項目(消費(fèi)、投資、出口等)的依賴程度。得出的結(jié)論是,金融業(yè)是消費(fèi)依賴型產(chǎn)業(yè),但我國金融業(yè)目前還不是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位和作用還不夠突出。 第5章我國金融業(yè)與各細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)分析。本章在第4章分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對金融業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各產(chǎn)業(yè)中的地位和作用進(jìn)行詳細(xì)剖析。首先,分析金融業(yè)與各細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)的后向關(guān)聯(lián)和前向關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)。通過直接消耗系數(shù)和完全消耗系數(shù)的測算,分析金融業(yè)與其他產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的后向關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng),發(fā)現(xiàn)我國金融業(yè)具有后向產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)廣,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈長的特點(diǎn),能夠通過直接或間接的需求拉動相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的共同發(fā)展。通過直接分配系數(shù)和完全分配系數(shù)兩個指標(biāo),分析我國金融業(yè)的前向關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng),結(jié)果表明,我國金融業(yè)幾乎與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)各部門均有前向關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,具有普遍的供給推動作用,金融業(yè)能夠直接和間接地推動所有產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。在后向關(guān)聯(lián)和前向關(guān)聯(lián)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本章對金融業(yè)的環(huán)向關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)和總帶動效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析,1997年至2007年與金融業(yè)環(huán)向直接關(guān)聯(lián)和環(huán)向完全關(guān)聯(lián)均高度密切的產(chǎn)業(yè)就是金融業(yè)本身,2002年至2007年與金融業(yè)環(huán)向直接關(guān)聯(lián)和環(huán)向完全關(guān)聯(lián)高度密切的產(chǎn)業(yè)包括金融業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸及倉儲業(yè)、租賃和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)等。利用金融業(yè)對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的后向完全關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)和前向完全關(guān)聯(lián)系數(shù)之和分析金融業(yè)的總帶動效應(yīng),發(fā)現(xiàn)金融業(yè)對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的總體帶動作用逐年增強(qiáng),2007年金融業(yè)每增加1元產(chǎn)值,能夠帶動所有產(chǎn)業(yè)增加產(chǎn)值3.186358元。通過比較各細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)的中間投入率和中間需求率,發(fā)現(xiàn)2007年金融業(yè)的中間投入率在各產(chǎn)業(yè)中排名第40位,中間需求率排名第13位,屬于典型的中間產(chǎn)品型基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè);通過比較各細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)的感應(yīng)度系數(shù)與影響力系數(shù),,發(fā)現(xiàn)2007年金融業(yè)的感應(yīng)度系數(shù)大于1,排名第14位,影響力系數(shù)小于1,排名第40位,說明我國金融業(yè)對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)具有弱輻射力和強(qiáng)制約性;通過比較各細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)系數(shù)和最終依賴度系數(shù),發(fā)現(xiàn)2007年消費(fèi)對金融業(yè)的生產(chǎn)誘發(fā)系數(shù)在各產(chǎn)業(yè)中排名第10位,金融業(yè)對消費(fèi)的最終依賴度系數(shù)在各產(chǎn)業(yè)中排名第13位,說明金融業(yè)屬于消費(fèi)依賴型產(chǎn)業(yè)。最后,分析了我國金融業(yè)的價格波及效應(yīng)。結(jié)果顯示,金融業(yè)的價格調(diào)整幾乎影響所有的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門,但影響的程度較弱,金融業(yè)提高價格10%,其他產(chǎn)業(yè)價格變動不超過1%。然而金融業(yè)對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的價格波及效應(yīng)卻呈現(xiàn)逐漸增強(qiáng)的趨勢,其價格影響曲線符合“價格穩(wěn)定平臺理論”,說明金融業(yè)的發(fā)展處于正常軌道,總體上是健康穩(wěn)定的。 第6章我國金融業(yè)投入產(chǎn)出效率分析。由于我國金融業(yè)的主體是銀行業(yè),銀行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)占金融業(yè)資產(chǎn)總額90%以上,創(chuàng)造的增加值占金融業(yè)增加值80%以上,銀行業(yè)的效率決定了金融業(yè)的整體效率水平,因此本章對我國銀行業(yè)的效率進(jìn)行分析。首先,介紹本章選用的實(shí)證模型,包括DEA模型和效率的測算方法以及Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)模型。其次,選擇適當(dāng)?shù)耐度氘a(chǎn)出變量,對我國銀行業(yè)的靜態(tài)基本效率——綜合技術(shù)效率,純技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率進(jìn)行測算,并利用Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)測算我國銀行業(yè)的全要素生產(chǎn)率(TFP),對銀行業(yè)的Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)做了收斂性分析。對銀行業(yè)靜態(tài)的基本效率分析顯示,2001~2010年我國銀行業(yè)的綜合技術(shù)效率偏低,15家商業(yè)銀行平均綜合技術(shù)效率為0.964,存在資源浪費(fèi),年均浪費(fèi)3.6%的投入資源,股份制商業(yè)銀行的綜合技術(shù)效率高于國有商業(yè)銀行2.92%;銀行業(yè)的平均純技術(shù)效率為0.99,總體上經(jīng)營管理水平較高,國有商業(yè)銀行和股份制商業(yè)銀行的純技術(shù)效率非常接近;我國銀行業(yè)平均規(guī)模效率為0.97,國有商業(yè)銀行的規(guī)模效率平均為0.93,股份制商業(yè)銀行的規(guī)模效率平均為0.98。對銀行業(yè)動態(tài)效率分析顯示,2001~2010年我國銀行業(yè)平均全要素生產(chǎn)率呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,年均增長3.4%,股份制商業(yè)銀行的全要素生產(chǎn)率略高于國有商業(yè)銀行,生產(chǎn)率的提升主要來自技術(shù)進(jìn)步。我國銀行業(yè)的全要素生產(chǎn)率長期內(nèi)存在收斂趨勢,短期全要素生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)的變異系數(shù)存在明顯的波動,收斂不穩(wěn)定。本章還構(gòu)建了Panel Data模型,運(yùn)用普通最小二乘法,對影響我國銀行業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行了分析。得出結(jié)論:宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量中有4個變量對銀行業(yè)的全要素生產(chǎn)率作用顯著,銀行業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率與GDP增長率、CPI的增長率和廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量增長率負(fù)相關(guān),與全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資增長率正相關(guān)。 本文最后是結(jié)論。對全文的分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行總結(jié)。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy. Financial industry is a special service industry to manage financial products. With its unique financial products and services, the important industry of investment, output and optimal allocation of social resources is carried out through the market system. With the development of economic globalization and integration of gold and melting, how to give full play to the financial industry The core role of promoting the harmonious development of the financial industry and the national economy has become the focus of attention all over the world.
Since the reform and opening up, the scale of China's financial industry has been expanding, the international status has been promoted, and the national economic development has made important contributions. However, there are still some defects in its industrial organization and industrial structure. The core competitiveness and overall strength of our financial industry are still not strong enough. At present, the development level of China's financial industry. It is very incompatible with the status of the second major economies in the world. In the process of changing the mode of economic growth and pursuing the development of the connotation, the financial industry is the core industry of the national economy, what is its position in the national economy, the relation and the trend of the various industries, the driving effect on the economy and the efficiency. In order to make it the core role of the financial industry and make it an important pillar industry for the growth of the national economy, we must first understand the industrial characteristics of the financial industry and clear the dynamic changes in the industrial status and efficiency of the financial industry. Based on the analysis of the industrial scale, structure and distribution of the financial industry in China, this paper makes use of the input output model to analyze the relationship between China's financial industry and the three industries and the subdivided industries on the basis of the related index of financial correlation, contribution rate and contribution. The dynamic comparison is carried out and the basic efficiency of the financial industry is calculated by using the DEA method, and the dynamic efficiency of the financial industry is calculated by using the Malmquist productivity index based on the DEA. By constructing the Panel Data model, the macroeconomic factors that affect the total factor productivity change are analyzed by the least square method, so as to understand the production of the financial industry. The status of the industry provides a reference for the healthy development of the financial industry.
This article is divided into 6 chapters, and the specific contents are as follows:
The first chapter introduces the background and significance of this article, reviews the research status of the industrial association of the financial industry, the efficiency of the financial industry, the relationship between the financial industry and the development of the national economy, and introduces the research framework, the main contents and the research methods of this paper.
The second chapter is the theory of industrial association, efficiency and financial industry. This chapter is the theoretical basis of the full text. Firstly, it defines the connotation of industrial association, introduces the main ways of industrial association, combs the formation and development of industrial relevance theory, and introduces the basic structure of the input-output table, the balance relationship and the Leon model's classic input-output model. Then, it introduces the meaning of efficiency, summarizes the formation and development of efficiency theory, expounds the meaning of productivity and related theories. Finally, the definition and industrial characteristics of the financial industry are clearly defined, and the related theories of financial development are summarized.
The third chapter is the scale, structure and international comparison of China's financial industry. First, it introduces the course of the development and evolution of China's financial industry and summarizes the characteristics of each stage. Secondly, it analyzes the industrial scale, industrial structure and industrial layout of the financial industry in China, and selects the depth of money, the contribution rate of the financial industry, the contribution of the financial industry and the financial related rate, etc. The main economic indicators measure the current development of the financial industry in China, analyze the characteristics of the development of the financial industry and the effect and influence on the national economy. Finally, we compare the financial industry with the major developed countries and emerging market countries and analyze their advantages and gaps.
The fourth chapter analyses the relationship between China's financial industry and the three industry. By using the method of input-output analysis, this chapter uses the input-output table of 1997, 2002 and 2007 to make a longitudinal dynamic analysis of the correlation between the financial industry and the three industry of the national economy. First, according to the needs of the research, the data of the three input-output tables are adjusted accordingly. Then, the direct dependence between the financial industry and the three industry is analyzed, and the direct dependence between the financial industry and the third industry is found through the input and output structure and the output structure of the financial industry, and the direct dependence of the financial industry and the third industry is found to be the highest. The total dependence between the gold industry and the three industries is analyzed by measuring the total consumption coefficient. It shows that China's financial industry and the second industry have the highest degree of complete dependence, the financial industry has the biggest pull effect on the second industry, and the greatest impact on the financial industry itself. Through the measurement of the middle investment rate and the intermediate demand rate of the financial industry, the quantitative analysis of the status of the financial industry in the national economy shows that China's finance is the most important. The industry belongs to the intermediate product base industry, its intermediate investment rate is low, it is a high value-added industry, and it has little impetus to the other industries of the national economy. The middle demand rate of the financial industry is high and the development of other industries is more restrictive. This chapter also analyzes the ripple effect of the production industry in the financial industry, and uses the induction coefficient. Analysis of the extent of financial industry in other industries, using influence coefficient to analyze the extent of financial industry to other industries, use the production induced coefficient to measure the degree of the production induction of the final demand items (such as consumption, investment, export, etc.) on the production of financial industry, and calculate the production of the financial industry by the final dependence coefficient of production. The conclusion is that the financial industry is a consumer dependent industry, but China's financial industry is not yet a pillar industry in the national economy, and the status and role of the national economy is not yet outstanding.
On the basis of the analysis of the fourth chapter, the fifth chapter analyses the status and function of the financial industry in the national economy. First, it analyzes the backward correlation and forward correlation effect of the financial industry and the subdivided industries. The relationship between the financial industry and other industrial sectors has been analyzed. It is found that China's financial industry has the characteristics of broad post industry links and long industrial chain, which can stimulate the common development of related industries through direct or indirect demand. Through the direct distribution coefficient and the total distribution coefficient two indicators, the forward correlation effect of China's financial industry is analyzed. The results show that China's financial industry has a forward relationship with all sectors of the national economy. It has a universal supply driven role, and the financial industry can promote the development of all industries directly and indirectly. On the basis of the analysis of the backward correlation and the forward correlation, this chapter analyses the ring relationship effect and the total driving effect of the financial industry. From 1997 to 2007, the industry itself is highly closely related to the direct and full link of the financial sector, which is closely related to the financial sector from 2002 to 2007, including the financial industry, transportation and warehousing, leasing and business services. It is found that the overall driving effect of the financial industry to the development of the national economy has increased year by year. The increase of the output value of 1 yuan in the financial industry in 2007 can drive all industries to increase the output value of 3.186358 yuan. By comparing the intermediate input rate of the subdivided industries. And in the middle demand rate, it is found that the middle investment rate of the financial industry in 2007 ranked fortieth in each industry, and the intermediate demand rate is thirteenth place, which belongs to the typical intermediate product base industry. By comparing the induction coefficient and influence coefficient of each subdivision industry, it is found that the coefficient of induction in the financial industry in 2007 is greater than 1, ranking fourteenth. The force coefficient is less than 1, ranking fortieth place, indicating that China's financial industry has weak radiant force and coercive nature to the national economy. By comparing the production induced coefficient and the final dependence coefficient of each subdivision industry, it is found that the production induced coefficient of consumption in the financial industry in 2007 is ranked tenth in each industry, and the final dependence of the financial industry on consumption is the degree of dependence of the financial industry. The number is ranked thirteenth in the various industries, indicating that the financial industry is a consumer dependent industry. Finally, the price ripple effect of China's financial industry is analyzed. The result shows that the adjustment of the price of the financial industry almost affects all industrial sectors, but the degree of influence is weak, the financial industry increases the price of 10%, and the price changes of other industries are not more than 1%. but finance The price effect of the industry to other industries is gradually increasing. The price impact curve accords with the "theory of price stabilization platform", indicating that the development of the financial industry is on the normal track, and it is generally healthy and stable.
The sixth chapter analyses the input-output efficiency of China's financial industry. Because the main body of our financial industry is banking, the assets of the banking sector account for more than 90% of the total assets of the financial industry, and the added value created by the banking industry accounts for more than 80% of the value of the financial industry, and the efficiency of the banking industry determines the overall efficiency of the financial industry. Therefore, the efficiency of the banking industry in our country is divided into two parts. First, we introduce the empirical model selected in this chapter, including the DEA model, the calculation method of efficiency and the Malmquist productivity index model. Secondly, choose appropriate input-output variables to calculate the static basic efficiency of China's banking industry, the comprehensive technical efficiency, the pure technical efficiency and the scale efficiency, and use the Malmquist productivity index. The total factor productivity (TFP) of China's banking industry is calculated and the Malmquist productivity index of the banking industry is convergent. The analysis of the basic efficiency of the banking industry shows that the overall technical efficiency of the banking industry in China is low in 2001~2010 years, and the average comprehensive technical efficiency of the 15 commercial banks is 0.964, and there is a waste of resources and a annual waste of 3.6. The overall technical efficiency of the joint-stock commercial banks is 2.92% higher than that of the state-owned commercial banks. The average pure technical efficiency of the banking industry is 0.99, the overall management level is high, the pure technical efficiency of the state-owned commercial banks and the joint-stock commercial banks is very close; the average efficiency of the banking industry in our country is 0.97, and the state-owned commercial silver is the same. The average scale efficiency of the bank is 0.93. The average size efficiency of the joint-stock commercial banks is 0.98. to the dynamic efficiency analysis of the banking industry. The average total factor productivity of the banking industry in China is rising in 2001~2010 years, the average annual increase is 3.4%. The total factor production rate of the joint-stock commercial banks is slightly higher than that of the state-owned commercial banks, and the productivity is promoted. The total factor productivity of China's banking industry is in the convergence trend for a long time, the variation coefficient of the short-term total factor productivity index has obvious fluctuation and the convergence is not stable. The Panel Data model is constructed in this chapter, and the macroeconomic factors affecting the total factor productivity of China's banking industry are made by using the ordinary least square method. The conclusion is that there are 4 variables in the macroeconomic variables that have significant effect on the total factor productivity of the banking industry. The total factor productivity of the banking industry is negatively related to the growth rate of GDP, the growth rate of CPI and the growth rate of the broad money supply, which is positively related to the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society.
The final conclusion is the conclusion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2012
【分類號】:F832;F223
本文編號:2155937
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy. Financial industry is a special service industry to manage financial products. With its unique financial products and services, the important industry of investment, output and optimal allocation of social resources is carried out through the market system. With the development of economic globalization and integration of gold and melting, how to give full play to the financial industry The core role of promoting the harmonious development of the financial industry and the national economy has become the focus of attention all over the world.
Since the reform and opening up, the scale of China's financial industry has been expanding, the international status has been promoted, and the national economic development has made important contributions. However, there are still some defects in its industrial organization and industrial structure. The core competitiveness and overall strength of our financial industry are still not strong enough. At present, the development level of China's financial industry. It is very incompatible with the status of the second major economies in the world. In the process of changing the mode of economic growth and pursuing the development of the connotation, the financial industry is the core industry of the national economy, what is its position in the national economy, the relation and the trend of the various industries, the driving effect on the economy and the efficiency. In order to make it the core role of the financial industry and make it an important pillar industry for the growth of the national economy, we must first understand the industrial characteristics of the financial industry and clear the dynamic changes in the industrial status and efficiency of the financial industry. Based on the analysis of the industrial scale, structure and distribution of the financial industry in China, this paper makes use of the input output model to analyze the relationship between China's financial industry and the three industries and the subdivided industries on the basis of the related index of financial correlation, contribution rate and contribution. The dynamic comparison is carried out and the basic efficiency of the financial industry is calculated by using the DEA method, and the dynamic efficiency of the financial industry is calculated by using the Malmquist productivity index based on the DEA. By constructing the Panel Data model, the macroeconomic factors that affect the total factor productivity change are analyzed by the least square method, so as to understand the production of the financial industry. The status of the industry provides a reference for the healthy development of the financial industry.
This article is divided into 6 chapters, and the specific contents are as follows:
The first chapter introduces the background and significance of this article, reviews the research status of the industrial association of the financial industry, the efficiency of the financial industry, the relationship between the financial industry and the development of the national economy, and introduces the research framework, the main contents and the research methods of this paper.
The second chapter is the theory of industrial association, efficiency and financial industry. This chapter is the theoretical basis of the full text. Firstly, it defines the connotation of industrial association, introduces the main ways of industrial association, combs the formation and development of industrial relevance theory, and introduces the basic structure of the input-output table, the balance relationship and the Leon model's classic input-output model. Then, it introduces the meaning of efficiency, summarizes the formation and development of efficiency theory, expounds the meaning of productivity and related theories. Finally, the definition and industrial characteristics of the financial industry are clearly defined, and the related theories of financial development are summarized.
The third chapter is the scale, structure and international comparison of China's financial industry. First, it introduces the course of the development and evolution of China's financial industry and summarizes the characteristics of each stage. Secondly, it analyzes the industrial scale, industrial structure and industrial layout of the financial industry in China, and selects the depth of money, the contribution rate of the financial industry, the contribution of the financial industry and the financial related rate, etc. The main economic indicators measure the current development of the financial industry in China, analyze the characteristics of the development of the financial industry and the effect and influence on the national economy. Finally, we compare the financial industry with the major developed countries and emerging market countries and analyze their advantages and gaps.
The fourth chapter analyses the relationship between China's financial industry and the three industry. By using the method of input-output analysis, this chapter uses the input-output table of 1997, 2002 and 2007 to make a longitudinal dynamic analysis of the correlation between the financial industry and the three industry of the national economy. First, according to the needs of the research, the data of the three input-output tables are adjusted accordingly. Then, the direct dependence between the financial industry and the three industry is analyzed, and the direct dependence between the financial industry and the third industry is found through the input and output structure and the output structure of the financial industry, and the direct dependence of the financial industry and the third industry is found to be the highest. The total dependence between the gold industry and the three industries is analyzed by measuring the total consumption coefficient. It shows that China's financial industry and the second industry have the highest degree of complete dependence, the financial industry has the biggest pull effect on the second industry, and the greatest impact on the financial industry itself. Through the measurement of the middle investment rate and the intermediate demand rate of the financial industry, the quantitative analysis of the status of the financial industry in the national economy shows that China's finance is the most important. The industry belongs to the intermediate product base industry, its intermediate investment rate is low, it is a high value-added industry, and it has little impetus to the other industries of the national economy. The middle demand rate of the financial industry is high and the development of other industries is more restrictive. This chapter also analyzes the ripple effect of the production industry in the financial industry, and uses the induction coefficient. Analysis of the extent of financial industry in other industries, using influence coefficient to analyze the extent of financial industry to other industries, use the production induced coefficient to measure the degree of the production induction of the final demand items (such as consumption, investment, export, etc.) on the production of financial industry, and calculate the production of the financial industry by the final dependence coefficient of production. The conclusion is that the financial industry is a consumer dependent industry, but China's financial industry is not yet a pillar industry in the national economy, and the status and role of the national economy is not yet outstanding.
On the basis of the analysis of the fourth chapter, the fifth chapter analyses the status and function of the financial industry in the national economy. First, it analyzes the backward correlation and forward correlation effect of the financial industry and the subdivided industries. The relationship between the financial industry and other industrial sectors has been analyzed. It is found that China's financial industry has the characteristics of broad post industry links and long industrial chain, which can stimulate the common development of related industries through direct or indirect demand. Through the direct distribution coefficient and the total distribution coefficient two indicators, the forward correlation effect of China's financial industry is analyzed. The results show that China's financial industry has a forward relationship with all sectors of the national economy. It has a universal supply driven role, and the financial industry can promote the development of all industries directly and indirectly. On the basis of the analysis of the backward correlation and the forward correlation, this chapter analyses the ring relationship effect and the total driving effect of the financial industry. From 1997 to 2007, the industry itself is highly closely related to the direct and full link of the financial sector, which is closely related to the financial sector from 2002 to 2007, including the financial industry, transportation and warehousing, leasing and business services. It is found that the overall driving effect of the financial industry to the development of the national economy has increased year by year. The increase of the output value of 1 yuan in the financial industry in 2007 can drive all industries to increase the output value of 3.186358 yuan. By comparing the intermediate input rate of the subdivided industries. And in the middle demand rate, it is found that the middle investment rate of the financial industry in 2007 ranked fortieth in each industry, and the intermediate demand rate is thirteenth place, which belongs to the typical intermediate product base industry. By comparing the induction coefficient and influence coefficient of each subdivision industry, it is found that the coefficient of induction in the financial industry in 2007 is greater than 1, ranking fourteenth. The force coefficient is less than 1, ranking fortieth place, indicating that China's financial industry has weak radiant force and coercive nature to the national economy. By comparing the production induced coefficient and the final dependence coefficient of each subdivision industry, it is found that the production induced coefficient of consumption in the financial industry in 2007 is ranked tenth in each industry, and the final dependence of the financial industry on consumption is the degree of dependence of the financial industry. The number is ranked thirteenth in the various industries, indicating that the financial industry is a consumer dependent industry. Finally, the price ripple effect of China's financial industry is analyzed. The result shows that the adjustment of the price of the financial industry almost affects all industrial sectors, but the degree of influence is weak, the financial industry increases the price of 10%, and the price changes of other industries are not more than 1%. but finance The price effect of the industry to other industries is gradually increasing. The price impact curve accords with the "theory of price stabilization platform", indicating that the development of the financial industry is on the normal track, and it is generally healthy and stable.
The sixth chapter analyses the input-output efficiency of China's financial industry. Because the main body of our financial industry is banking, the assets of the banking sector account for more than 90% of the total assets of the financial industry, and the added value created by the banking industry accounts for more than 80% of the value of the financial industry, and the efficiency of the banking industry determines the overall efficiency of the financial industry. Therefore, the efficiency of the banking industry in our country is divided into two parts. First, we introduce the empirical model selected in this chapter, including the DEA model, the calculation method of efficiency and the Malmquist productivity index model. Secondly, choose appropriate input-output variables to calculate the static basic efficiency of China's banking industry, the comprehensive technical efficiency, the pure technical efficiency and the scale efficiency, and use the Malmquist productivity index. The total factor productivity (TFP) of China's banking industry is calculated and the Malmquist productivity index of the banking industry is convergent. The analysis of the basic efficiency of the banking industry shows that the overall technical efficiency of the banking industry in China is low in 2001~2010 years, and the average comprehensive technical efficiency of the 15 commercial banks is 0.964, and there is a waste of resources and a annual waste of 3.6. The overall technical efficiency of the joint-stock commercial banks is 2.92% higher than that of the state-owned commercial banks. The average pure technical efficiency of the banking industry is 0.99, the overall management level is high, the pure technical efficiency of the state-owned commercial banks and the joint-stock commercial banks is very close; the average efficiency of the banking industry in our country is 0.97, and the state-owned commercial silver is the same. The average scale efficiency of the bank is 0.93. The average size efficiency of the joint-stock commercial banks is 0.98. to the dynamic efficiency analysis of the banking industry. The average total factor productivity of the banking industry in China is rising in 2001~2010 years, the average annual increase is 3.4%. The total factor production rate of the joint-stock commercial banks is slightly higher than that of the state-owned commercial banks, and the productivity is promoted. The total factor productivity of China's banking industry is in the convergence trend for a long time, the variation coefficient of the short-term total factor productivity index has obvious fluctuation and the convergence is not stable. The Panel Data model is constructed in this chapter, and the macroeconomic factors affecting the total factor productivity of China's banking industry are made by using the ordinary least square method. The conclusion is that there are 4 variables in the macroeconomic variables that have significant effect on the total factor productivity of the banking industry. The total factor productivity of the banking industry is negatively related to the growth rate of GDP, the growth rate of CPI and the growth rate of the broad money supply, which is positively related to the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society.
The final conclusion is the conclusion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2012
【分類號】:F832;F223
【引證文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 趙素萍;;中國金融業(yè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)分析[J];北方經(jīng)貿(mào);2014年03期
本文編號:2155937
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