發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-21 10:18

  本文選題：住房抵押貸款 + 理性違約��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2009年碩士論文

【摘要】： 住房抵押貸款在我國(guó)于上個(gè)世紀(jì)90年代發(fā)展并壯大起來(lái),至05年末四大商業(yè)銀行個(gè)人住房貸款總量已達(dá)13489.23億元(其中尚未包括建行發(fā)放的公積金貸款),而到2006年末單農(nóng)行,中行,建行(工行數(shù)據(jù)缺失)三家房貸額總計(jì)已達(dá)05年的77%,可見(jiàn)增速之快。誠(chéng)然,這一金融業(yè)務(wù)的開(kāi)展,圓了我國(guó)千千萬(wàn)萬(wàn)百姓的住房夢(mèng)。從開(kāi)辦之初到目前為止已有十余年的歷史,銀行一直把這一業(yè)務(wù)作為自身的亮點(diǎn),因?yàn)橄鄬?duì)于面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)的收益是頗高的;而借款人也就是普通購(gòu)房者,也欣喜于自己可以提前享受有房的感覺(jué)。但這之中隱藏著多大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)又會(huì)引發(fā)怎樣的后患?據(jù)有關(guān)資料顯示,截至08年2月末,滬上中資銀行個(gè)人住房抵押貸款不良余額進(jìn)一步上升,不良貸款率升至0.95%,比07年年初增加了0.37個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。而暴發(fā)于07年8月份的美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)更是給我們所有生活在這個(gè)世界上的人上了生動(dòng)的一課,因?yàn)樗陌l(fā)生已經(jīng)影響到了全世界的方方面面,包括我們的生活、工作。面臨次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球金融動(dòng)蕩,中國(guó)一些主要城市商品房交易萎縮,房?jī)r(jià)跌幅嚴(yán)重,“斷供潮”、“退房潮”的頻頻出現(xiàn),這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信號(hào)都在警示我們風(fēng)險(xiǎn)無(wú)處不在。面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)我們?nèi)绾巫R(shí)別,如何應(yīng)對(duì),這些都是值得關(guān)注與研究的。只有做好了足夠的防范措施,才能在當(dāng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生時(shí)做到損失最小。本文正是基于這樣的目的來(lái)著手研究這一問(wèn)題,希望能給我國(guó)目前商業(yè)銀行實(shí)際業(yè)務(wù)的操作帶來(lái)一些啟示意義,最大限度地減小其面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文第一部分由最基本的住房金融相關(guān)概念開(kāi)始介紹,包括住房金融的幾種主要方式(公積金貸款、自營(yíng)性個(gè)人住房貸款、組合貸款等),住房抵押貸款業(yè)務(wù)的特點(diǎn)分析,說(shuō)明了住房抵押貸款既有零售業(yè)務(wù)的通性又有自身業(yè)務(wù)的特性,為在后面研究中所要涉及的住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析做了一些理論鋪墊;其后利用四大商業(yè)銀行住房抵押貸款的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)說(shuō)明我國(guó)住房抵押貸款發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀以及在這一業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域里競(jìng)爭(zhēng)程度的激烈;分析近期住房抵押貸款市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題,并結(jié)合近兩年國(guó)際以及國(guó)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)的住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題提出了本文的主要研究對(duì)象—住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究。第二部分,結(jié)合一些實(shí)例及資料將各種可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一一剖析,概括起來(lái)大致主要包括七類(lèi):來(lái)自開(kāi)發(fā)商的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、來(lái)自借款人的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(包括理性違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和非理性違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn))、抵押物價(jià)值的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、銀行自身的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)(多指銀行的操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、業(yè)務(wù)經(jīng)辦人員的職業(yè)道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn))、利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、通貨膨脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其中一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是系統(tǒng)性的,銀行很難通過(guò)一些措施手段來(lái)防范,但另外一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)卻是可以通過(guò)一些方法、措施來(lái)減小或者防范的,本文主要也就是以銀行可以發(fā)揮自身能動(dòng)性來(lái)減弱其危害性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為主要研究對(duì)象的,在論述各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的過(guò)程中探究出引發(fā)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要原因并歸結(jié),為下一部分的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范措施的提出、制度的完善做了準(zhǔn)備。第三部分,首先介紹了目前世界上主要的三種住房金融模式:包括以德國(guó)為代表的合同儲(chǔ)蓄模式、以新加坡為代表的公積金模式、和以美國(guó)為代表的抵押貸款模式。然后對(duì)美國(guó)這個(gè)老牌住房抵押貸款實(shí)施者(并且也是目前我國(guó)住房金融所采取的主要模式)的一些經(jīng)驗(yàn),包括實(shí)際操作中的一些具體細(xì)節(jié),比如美國(guó)審慎的貸前調(diào)查具體的實(shí)施內(nèi)容(這正是我國(guó)目前銀行業(yè)在實(shí)際業(yè)務(wù)操作中所欠缺的和需要加強(qiáng)的),對(duì)借款人信貸評(píng)估記分法的應(yīng)用,對(duì)抵押物價(jià)值的科學(xué)評(píng)估,完善的社會(huì)保障(為銀行在面臨信貸違約情況下高效執(zhí)行抵押物提供了制度性保障)、保險(xiǎn)體系,發(fā)達(dá)的住房抵押貸款二級(jí)市場(chǎng),并對(duì)住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)估引入計(jì)量模型達(dá)到精確刻畫(huà)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。值得一提是,對(duì)提前還款這一住房抵押貸款市場(chǎng)上面臨的特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn),美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家也有比較成熟的應(yīng)對(duì)機(jī)制,為我國(guó)管理類(lèi)似風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提供了思路指導(dǎo)。最后附帶介紹了美國(guó)之外的其他一些發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家在住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范方面的一些有利措施,通過(guò)對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)的介紹,目的就是與我國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)務(wù)操作對(duì)比,引發(fā)思考、進(jìn)而借鑒。第四部分,提出可供我國(guó)銀行業(yè)借鑒、改進(jìn)的方法、措施,包括:對(duì)銀行業(yè)常用的主觀評(píng)估法的改進(jìn),在通常的5C模式下提出了一些新的指標(biāo)使主觀評(píng)估法更為科學(xué)嚴(yán)謹(jǐn),引入了信貸記分法(結(jié)合中國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)情),提出了收入預(yù)測(cè)模型以及對(duì)違約點(diǎn)進(jìn)行的提前預(yù)測(cè)分析使商業(yè)銀行能更好的控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn),主張建立一個(gè)政府主導(dǎo)的保險(xiǎn)、擔(dān)保機(jī)制來(lái)主要為中低收入者提供抵押貸款擔(dān)保。同時(shí)對(duì)一些一直是住房抵押貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)探討的熱點(diǎn),比如住房抵押貸款資產(chǎn)證券化、提前還款等問(wèn)題給出了自己的見(jiàn)解。較為細(xì)致的介紹了住房抵押貸款證券化的兩種思路,討論了當(dāng)前我國(guó)形勢(shì)下實(shí)施住房抵押貸款證券化的可行性以及需要注意的問(wèn)題,比如信用增級(jí)問(wèn)題;針對(duì)目前我國(guó)各商業(yè)銀行只注重定性層面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)衡量,缺乏定量手段的應(yīng)用,引入了一些計(jì)量模型并詳細(xì)介紹了相關(guān)原理,比如刻畫(huà)宏觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與微觀風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的模型以及提前還款違約金設(shè)計(jì)。最后對(duì)一些制度層面的建設(shè)與完善提出了一些建議與設(shè)想,包括征信體系需要進(jìn)一步完善、中介評(píng)估機(jī)構(gòu)需要進(jìn)一步規(guī)范及發(fā)展壯大、在全球金融大融合環(huán)境下更加需要的金融監(jiān)管等方面的問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:Housing mortgage loans developed and expanded in China in the 90s of the last century. By the end of 05, the total amount of personal housing loans for the four major commercial banks had reached 1 trillion and 348 billion 923 million yuan (which had not yet included the fund loans issued by the CCB). By the end of 2006, the bank, China Bank of China, the Construction Bank (the lack of data from the industrial and Commercial Bank) totaled 77% of the 05 years. It is true that the development of this financial business has round the housing dream of hundreds of thousands of people in our country. From the beginning of it to so far more than ten years ago, the bank has been taking this business as its own bright spot because the income of this business is quite high relative to the risks faced; and the borrower is the ordinary home buyer. It is also happy to enjoy the feeling of having a house ahead of time. But what are the risks hidden in it? And what will the risks cause? By the end of 08 and 2, the poor balance of private housing mortgage loans in Shanghai and Chinese banks rose further and the rate of non-performing loans rose to 0.95%, which was 0.37 more than at the beginning of the 07 year. The American subprime crisis, which broke out in August in 07, is a vivid lesson for all of us living in the world, because it has affected all aspects of the world, including our life, our work, the financial turmoil caused by the subprime crisis, and the commercial housing in some of the major cities of China. Trading is shrinking, house price falls seriously, "break supply tide" and "retreat tide" appear frequently. These risk signals are all warning us that risk is everywhere. How to identify and deal with risk is worth paying attention and research. Only by doing well enough anti model measures can we minimize the loss when the risk occurs. This article is based on the purpose to study this issue, I hope to give our commercial banks actual business operation bring some enlightenment, to minimize the risk.
The first part of this paper begins with the introduction of the most basic concepts of housing finance, including the main ways of housing finance (provident fund loans, self-employed personal housing loans, combined loans, etc.), and the characteristics of the housing mortgage loan business, indicating that the housing mortgage loan has the characteristics of both the retail business and its own business. There are some theoretical paving for the risk analysis of housing mortgage loan in the following research, and then the related data of housing mortgage loans of four commercial banks are used to explain the current situation of the development of housing mortgage loan in China and the fierce competition in this business area; and the problems that appear in the recent housing mortgage loan market are analyzed. Combined with the risk of housing mortgage loan in the past two years, the main object of this paper is to study the risk of housing mortgage loan. The second part, combined with some examples and data to analyze the possible risks one by one, generalizes roughly seven categories: the risk from the developer, from the loan The risk of a person (including the rational and irrational default risks), the risk of the value of the mortgage, the risk of the bank itself (more refers to the operational risk of the bank, the professional moral hazard of the business operators), the interest rate risk, the liquidity risk and the inflation risk, some of which are systematic, and the banks are difficult to adopt some measures. To prevent, but some other risks can be reduced or prevented by some methods and measures. This article is mainly the main research object that the risk of the bank can play its own initiative to weaken its harmfulness. In the process of discussing various risks, the main causes of the risk are explored and summed up to the next. Part of the risk prevention measures are put forward and the system is perfected. In the third part, the main three housing financial models are introduced in the world, including the contract savings model represented by Germany, the model of Singapore as the representative of the provident fund, and the mortgage model represented by the United States. Some of the experience of the mortgaged mortgages (and the main model of housing finance in China), including some specific details in the actual operation, such as the specific implementation content of the prudent pre loan investigation in the United States (this is the lack of and need to be strengthened in the actual operation of the banking industry in our country), and the loan to the loan. The application of the credit scoring method, the scientific assessment of the value of the mortgages, the perfect social security (the institutional guarantee for the banks to execute the mortgages efficiently under the condition of the credit default), the insurance system, the two level market of the developed housing mortgage loan, and the evaluation of the risk of housing mortgage loan to the accuracy of the measurement model The standard of portrayal. It is worth mentioning that there is a mature coping mechanism in the developed countries such as the United States and other developed countries for the special risks faced in the housing mortgage loan market in advance. Finally, some other developed countries outside the United States are introduced to prevent the risk of housing mortgage loan. Some favorable measures, through the introduction of the experience of risk management in developed countries, aim to compare with the business operation of commercial banks in China, cause thinking, and then draw lessons from. The fourth part, proposed for our banking industry to learn from, improved methods, measures, including: the improvement of the subjective evaluation method commonly used in the banking industry, in the usual 5C model. Under the formula, some new indexes are put forward to make the subjective assessment more scientific and rigorous, and the credit scoring method (combined with the actual conditions of China) is introduced. The income prediction model and the advance prediction analysis for the default point make the commercial banks better control the risk. At the same time, it provides mortgage guarantee for middle and low income people. At the same time, some of the hot spots which have been the discussion of the risk of housing mortgage loan, such as the securitization of housing mortgage loan assets, advance repayment and so on, give their own opinions. The two ideas of housing mortgage securitization are introduced in detail, and the implementation of the current situation in China is discussed. The feasibility of mortgage securitization and the problems that need to be paid attention to, such as the credit rating problem; for the commercial banks in China, which only pay attention to the qualitative level of risk measurement, lack the application of quantitative means, introduce some measurement models and introduce the related principles, such as the model of portrayed macro risk and micro risk and the model as well as the model as well as the model of macro risk and micro risk. In the end, some suggestions and ideas are put forward for the construction and improvement of some system levels, including the need for further improvement of the credit collection system, the need for further standardization and development of intermediary evaluation institutions, and financial supervision and regulation in the environment of global financial integration.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2009
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F830.5

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 陳仕慧;;淺析商業(yè)銀行個(gè)人住房抵押貸款違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[J];經(jīng)營(yíng)管理者;2010年18期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 吳華;浮動(dòng)利率住房抵押貸款隱含期權(quán)定價(jià)[D];西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

，

本文編號(hào)：2048259