發(fā)布時間：2018-05-07 11:21

  本文選題：人民幣匯率 + 對外升值　； 參考：《內蒙古大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從2005年7月匯率改革以來,我國出現(xiàn)了兩個突出的經濟現(xiàn)象：一是人民幣匯率穩(wěn)中有升,尤其是對美元一直持續(xù)保持小幅的升值,截止到2013年3月,已經累計升值30%；二是國內的物價水平從結構性上漲演變?yōu)槿娉掷m(xù)上漲,也就是人民幣在國內的購買力越來越低。這個看似有悖經濟規(guī)律的現(xiàn)象引起了國內外學者的普遍關注。 面對我國這樣一種特殊的經濟現(xiàn)象,本文在綜合了以往國內外學者研究成果的基礎上,首先對影響通貨膨脹和人民幣升值的各個因素進行理論分析,然后運用ADL模型對影響人民幣匯率的因素進行實證分析和檢驗,運用(?)AR模型對影響通貨膨脹的各個因素進行實證分析和檢驗,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩者的理論分析和實證分析結論雖然不完全吻合,但是基本相同：在影響通貨膨脹的因素當中,通貨膨脹預期和外匯儲備與其相關性最大；在影響人民幣匯率的因素當中,外匯儲備與貨幣發(fā)行量與人民幣匯率的相關性最強。因此人民幣對外升值對內貶值的原因一是內外經濟失衡,二是國際政治壓力與人民幣國際化的矛盾。就國內外現(xiàn)實經濟環(huán)境而言,人民幣對外升值是主導性的,對內貶值是派生性的,人民幣幣值國內外存在差異這一背離經濟規(guī)律的現(xiàn)象將隨著結售匯制度退出歷史舞臺而逐漸消失。
[Abstract]:Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, there have been two prominent economic phenomena in China: first, the RMB exchange rate has risen steadily, especially against the US dollar, which has maintained a small appreciation until March 2013. There has been a cumulative appreciation of 30%; second, the domestic price level has evolved from a structural rise to an overall sustained rise, meaning that the purchasing power of the RMB is getting lower and lower at home. This phenomenon, which seems to be contrary to the economic law, has aroused the widespread concern of scholars at home and abroad. In the face of such a special economic phenomenon in China, this paper, on the basis of synthesizing the previous research results of scholars at home and abroad, firstly makes a theoretical analysis of the factors affecting inflation and RMB appreciation. Then the ADL model is used to analyze and test the factors influencing RMB exchange rate, and the AR model is used to analyze and test the factors that affect inflation. It is found that although the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the two are not completely consistent, they are basically the same: among the factors that affect inflation, inflation expectations and foreign exchange reserves are the most relevant; among the factors that affect the exchange rate of RMB, The correlation between foreign exchange reserves and currency issuance and RMB exchange rate is the strongest. Therefore, the internal and external economic imbalance and the contradiction between the international political pressure and the internationalization of RMB are the main causes of RMB's external appreciation and devaluation. In terms of the real economic environment at home and abroad, the external appreciation of the RMB is dominant, and the internal devaluation is derivative. The phenomenon that there are differences in the value of RMB at home and abroad, which deviates from the economic law, will disappear with the withdrawal from the historical stage of the system of foreign exchange settlement and sale.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1856717