本文選題：房地產(chǎn) + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生，2009年十個行業(yè)振興計劃的提出，以及2010年以來如“新國八條”、“國十一條”、限購令等一系列針對房地產(chǎn)市場的宏觀調(diào)控政策的出臺，引發(fā)了有關(guān)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的激烈探討。本文正是基于此背景，研究房地產(chǎn)市場波動對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，判斷中國目前房地產(chǎn)市場在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位，以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的依賴程度，以期對國家房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策做出一些建議，具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。 房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響體現(xiàn)在兩個方面，一方面是直接推動或帶動，或者通過產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的關(guān)聯(lián)間接推動或帶動GDP增長，表現(xiàn)為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的直接貢獻(xiàn)和間接貢獻(xiàn)；另一方面，通過價格變動對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)造成沖擊，表現(xiàn)為對物價的影響。本文在此基調(diào)下，在相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上分別從房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的利(對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)率)和弊(對通貨膨脹的影響)兩個方面來闡述對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。 本文在測度過程中，首先，分別應(yīng)用增長值法和投入產(chǎn)出模型對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)直接貢獻(xiàn)率和間接貢獻(xiàn)率進(jìn)行測度，分析中國經(jīng)濟(jì)對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的依賴程度,得出結(jié)論。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)和最終需求型產(chǎn)業(yè)。我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)還處于粗放型發(fā)展階段。我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)依賴程度大。其次，運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗、VAR分析等方法對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與通貨膨脹關(guān)系進(jìn)行測度，并進(jìn)行結(jié)果分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)短期內(nèi)，房地產(chǎn)價格波動對通貨膨脹影響較弱，甚至為零；長期內(nèi)，房地產(chǎn)價格波動會先對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生逐漸增強(qiáng)的正影響，也即隨著房地產(chǎn)價格的上漲，物價水平也會逐漸上漲，所以房地產(chǎn)價格的變化對未來通貨膨脹的預(yù)測很有意義。最后，本文結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)業(yè)對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)以及對通貨膨脹利弊兩方面影響的結(jié)果分析，，給出論文的研究結(jié)論，并提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the emergence of the 2008 financial crisis, the proposal of ten industry revitalization plans in 2009, and the introduction of a series of macro-control policies aimed at the real estate market since 2010, such as "eight articles of the new country", "11 articles of the country", and the purchase restriction order, etc. The relationship between real estate industry and national economy is discussed intensely. Based on this background, this paper studies the impact of the fluctuation of real estate market on the national economy, judges the status of China's real estate market in the national economy, and the degree of dependence of the Chinese economy on the real estate industry. In order to make some suggestions to the national real estate regulation and control policy, it has important theoretical and practical significance. The influence of real estate industry on our economy is reflected in two aspects. On the one hand, it directly promotes or drives the growth of GDP, or indirectly promotes or stimulates the growth of GDP through the connection between industries, which is manifested as the direct and indirect contribution of the real estate industry to our economy. On the other hand, through the impact of price changes on the national economy, the impact on prices. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper expounds the influence of real estate industry on the national economy from two aspects: the benefit (contribution rate to national economy) and the disadvantage (effect on inflation) of real estate industry. In this paper, firstly, the direct contribution rate and indirect contribution rate of real estate industry to national economy are measured by growth value method and input-output model respectively, and the degree of dependence of Chinese economy on real estate industry is analyzed, and a conclusion is drawn. The real estate industry is the leading industry and the final demand industry of our national economy. China's real estate industry is still in the extensive development stage. The national economy of our country depends heavily on the real estate industry. Secondly, using co-integration test and VAR analysis to measure the relationship between real estate industry and inflation, the results show that in the short term, the impact of real estate price fluctuations on inflation is weak or even zero; in the long run, the impact of real estate price fluctuations on inflation is weak, even zero. The fluctuation of real estate price will have a positive effect on macro economy first, that is, with the rise of real estate price, the price level will also rise gradually, so the change of real estate price is of great significance to the forecast of future inflation. Finally, based on the analysis of the results of the contribution of real estate industry to China's economic growth and the impact of inflation on the advantages and disadvantages of inflation, this paper gives the conclusions of the paper and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F299.23;F124.1;F822.5

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